Team Lebron vs. Team Durant
Spread: Team Lebron -6.0
Total: 324.0
Rosters
Team LeBron
Giannis Antetokounmpo (Starter)
Stephen Curry (Starter)
DeMar DeRozan (Starter)
LeBron James (Starter)
Nikola Jokic (Starter)
Jarrett Allen
Jimmy Butler
Luka Doncic
Darius Garland
Donovan Mitchell
Chris Paul
Fred VanVleet
Team Durant
Joel Embiid (Starter)
Ja Morant (Starter)
Jayson Tatum (Starter)
Andrew Wiggins (Starter)
Trae Young (Starter)
LaMelo Ball
Devin Booker
Rudy Gobert
Zach LaVine
Khris Middleton
Dejounte Murray
Karl-Anthony Towns
Injuries – Will Not Play
Kevin Durant
James Harden
Draymond Green
MVP/Captain
Giannis Antetokuonmpo, PF/C – The All-Star Game is, of course, a totally different animal than the normal Showdown slate you might be used to. Unpredictable minutes, wild scoring on both sides, no bargain-basement salaries. You have to look for and prioritize the players who would excel in this type of up-and-down, track-meet environment. Enter Greek Freak. Giannis won the All-Star MVP last year despite playing only 19 minutes. He scored 35 points (including 16-for-16 from the field) with seven rebounds, three assists, a steal, and a block. Even if he plays less than half the game, Giannis will be all over the place and will likely be the biggest player on the floor for long stretches, including crunch time. This game just isn’t designed for the Nikola Vucevics and Rudy Goberts of the world.
Steph Curry, PG – The other thing you will see plenty of in the All-Star Game is three-pointers. Last year, the two teams combined for 320 points and 133 attempted threes. How many did Curry shoot in that game? Oh, just 16, making half of them. That led to 28 points in just 22 minutes. This IS the format designed for players like Curry. The only thing that would stop a Curry scoring barrage is Giannis or LeBron taking over down the stretch.
LeBron James, PG/SF – LeBron James has such a stacked team in this one that it might look as though he would have a difficult time separating from the pack, especially when he shares a spot in the starting lineup with Giannis and Curry and has guys like Doncic and Jimmy Butler ready off the bench. But don’t discount the narrative of the hometown kid returning home and putting on a show for his last All-Star game in the city. LeBron only played 13 minutes in last year’s game, despite starting. Soget ready for him to get a full workload today in his home city. And one more thing. LeBron already has thee All-Star MVPs on his shelf. One more and he ties Kobe Bryant and Bob Pettit for most ever. Don’t discount that tonight.
Trae Young, PG – You’re not going to see any centers listed in today’s recommendations for a few reasons. First, no center has won the All-Star MVP since Kobe and Shaquille O’Neal shared it in 2009. Only three centers have won the award since 1986. If we are looking for the guys who might take over a game and dominate in short stints, chances are it’s not going to be a center. Second, here are the minutes for any Center-eligible players in last year’s All-Star game: 19, 13, 13,13, 12. While guys like Bradley Beal, James Harden, Chris Paul, Luka Doncic, and Kyrie Irving all played more than 30 minutes, centers were relegated to the bench.
You need guys who can run, run, and run some more. That’s why I like Trae Young as the primary playmaker for Team Durant for most of the game. Embiid, Tatum, or Wiggins from the starting lineup aren’t going to play that role and I imagine injury fill-in Dejounte Murray plays the back-up minutes. Ice Trae is not afraid to chuck it and that’s what we want here.
Utility
Dejounte Murray, PG – What Murray can do, however, is pile up a bunch of stats in a hurry. Besides Giannis or Lebron, Murray might be the most likely to approach a double-double in limited minutes in this game. There are three players in the NBA averaging at least 20 points, eight rebounds, and nine assists per game. Murray is one of them. If he can get just 20 minutes in this game, his ability to pile up points, rebounds, assists, and steals make him a steal at a salary less than Andrew Wiggins on DK.
Devin Booker, SG – Besides Trae Young and maybe Zach LaVine, Team Durant has no other long-range bomber besides Devin Booker. Booker attempts 7.1 threes per game (most of his career) and makes 37% of them. He also attempts 10 drives to the basket per game, which accounts for 56.8% of his points this season. Who knows what kind of minutes he gets, but if he gets hot, watch out..
DeMar DeRozan, SF/PF – Among starters, only Jayson Tatum and Andrew Wiggins have lower salaries than DeRozan tonight. Perhaps you have heard, but DeRozan has been on a Jordan-esque pace lately, scoring more than 35 points with at least 50% shooting in seven straight games. He is certainly someone who can get hot in a hurry. I would caution against using him in your MVP slot as he only takes 1.8 three-pointers per game. If this turns into a shoot-out that may not be his game.
Value Tier
Chris Paul, PG – When you talk about a “Value Tier” for the All-Star Game, it’s not your typical Showdown value where you are looking for the $1,000 guy who is going to play 20 minutes. Anyone under $5,000 in this game would be considered a value play and Paul comes in just too cheap at $5,00. He played the second-most minutes on Team LeBron last year. Did he score a lot of points? No, he had just six. But in his 31 minutes, he managed 16 assists, three steals, and eight rebounds. Paul has just as much triple-double upside as anyone in this game because of how many assists he will compile.
Darius Garland, PG – If there is going to be any value chalk in this game, Garland will be it. He is almost a lock in my opinion. LeBron knew what he was doing when he took Garland with his fourth pick in the All-Star draft. He wants the Cleveland guy who the crowd will get behind and whom he can play 28-30 minutes so he can show off in his home stadium. The fact that he is just $3,800 is criminally low. In terms of points per dollar, Garland has as good a case as anyone tonight. Garland shoots 37% on almost seven threes per game, so he will right in tonight.
Khris Middleton, SG/SF – This may be just a hunch, but I think guys like LeBron and Jimmy Butler like going up against this guy, and Team Durant may try to match the athleticism of James and Butler with Middleton for long stretches. Andrew Wiggins playing those two guys is just a wrongheaded mismatch, so Middleton looks to be the next candidate in line. Looking at the Team Durant roster, there don’t seem to be too many other options of guys who can guard the unbelievable wings of Team LeBron. Besides, he is another three-point gunner who can try to keep them into the game.
Jimmy Butler, SF/PF – Butler at just $5,200 on DK I simply do not get. He is one of two players this season averaging at least 20 points, six rebounds, six assists, and 1.8 steals per game. Dejuonte Murray is the other. The issue is, Butler has literally never been able to display his explosiveness and playmaking in an All-Star game. Of his previous five selections, he sat out two due to injury and played a total of 41 minutes in the three others. Call it a hunch, but I think LeBron lets Butler has his time for stretches tonight and he will certainly top his previous All-Star game-highs of six points, three rebounds, and two assists. For $5,200, it’s worth the risk.