NBA DFS Position Coach: November 3, 2016

Before I get to the nitty and the gritty, let me just say I am still in disbelief over the Cubs winning Game 7 of the World Series in extra innings. I have been a Cubs fan my entire life, and I still can’t wrap my mind around it. It is easy to pay more attention to fantasy than to my real life teams, especially when two of those teams are the Bears and the Bulls, but last night was just unreal.

That being said, Thursday’s slate is a lot of fun despite only having five games. A few significant injuries have opened up playing time for cheaper guys, and success in Thursday’s slate my ultimately depend on picking the correct cheap guys and pairing them with one or two studs.

Point Guard

I slightly prefer Matthew Dellavedova to Kris Dunn, because Dellavedova has scored at least 10 points in every game this season, and I don’t think Dunn has that kind of floor. That being said, Dunn is still super cheap on FantasyAces, and definitely worth a play there. You might actually have to play both if you want to afford Russell Westbrook.

I suspect everyone is going to be on Russell Westbrook in the “revenge game” despite his outrageous price. Not to simplify it too much, but if Westbrook has another triple-double, which seems like a lock, you will probably wish you had paid for him.

Rookie Jamal Murray will likely see heavy minutes for the first time this season with Will Barton and Gary Harris both out Thursday. Murray is extremely risky, but a lot of people liked his talent as the seventh pick in the draft, and he is worth a shot, especially in GPP lineups. Murray has a chance to produce like Matthew Dellavedova or Kris Dunn but at a much cheaper price.

The Celtics are going to get points from someone, and that someone is probably Isaiah Thomas. Kyrie Irving has never been known for his defense, and Cleveland doesn’t really have a rim protector Thomas has to worry about.

Shooting Guard

Zach LaVine has at least 19 points in every game this season, and in the first game with Ricky Rubio out, he scored 31. LaVine’s price has gone up quite a bit, but he has a high floor and a decent ceiling, which cannot be said about too many of the shooting guards in Thursday’s slate.

I will probably have at least one GPP lineup where I fade Russell Westbrook and play Giannis Antetokounmpo instead. Giannis is a triple-double threat himself, and if he gets one Thursday you will have a huge advantage over everyone who paid for Russ.

If you don’t like either of these options, and you don’t play on a site where Matthew Dellavedova or Jamal Murray are eligible at shooting guard, Evan Fornier should be solid. He is averaging four assists per game, and he is certainly capable of scoring 20 points with a handful of assists and rebounds, which would be just fine for his price.

Small Forward

The Celtics are on the road for the second of a back-to-back, and I don’t see how they can slow down LeBron James with Jae Crowder out. There is some risk the games gets out of hand and LeBron only plays three quarters, but there is also a chance he takes his frustration with the results of the World Series out on the Celtics. No team has allowed a higher effective field goal percentage on isolation plays than the Celtics this season.

The real beneficiary of the Will Barton and Gary Harris injuries could be Wilson Chandler. Even if Jamal Murray starts at shooting guard, Wilson Chandler could get a lot of minutes there. Chandler hasn’t scored more than 12 points in a game so far this season, but that could change Thursday.

Rudy Gay is averaging as many fantasy points as Paul George, and I’m not sure it is a fluke. I’m not sure how you can fade Gay until his price goes up or his production goes down.

Power Forward

You are probably going to get sick of reading this, but Al Horford and Jae Crowder are out for the Celtics. That leaves Tyler Zeller, Amir Johnson and Jonas Jerebko to try to slow down Kevin Love. I don’t think they have much of a shot.

That being said, Amir Johnson did play 30 minutes Wednesday, and somebody has to get the rebounds for Boston. Johnson is only slightly more expensive than Tyler Zeller, and I much prefer Johnson. Only the Lakers have allowed more second chance points than the Cavs, which could bode well for both Boston big men.

Is this the day Thaddeus Young gets his first double-double of the season? Only the Pelicans have allowed more rebounds to opponents than the Bucks, and there is a decent chance Young is matched up with Jabari Parker for much of the game, which is not a bad thing.

Center

The Thunder have to punish the Warriors on the boards if they want to win Thursday, and that would mean big games from Steven Adams and Enes Kanter. I could easily see both centers getting double-doubles in this game, and while I would pay up for Adams if I could, I would be just fine saving some money with Kanter.

Tyler Zeller played a season-high 25 minutes with Al Horford out Wednesday, scoring 11 points but managing just four rebounds. Zeller may be the riskiest Celtic play of the night, but anybody with a modicum of talent who has a chance to play 30 minutes in a short slate is worth considering, especially with so many expensive options worth playing.

With Horford and Jae Crowder out, I don’t know who is going to keep Tristan Thompson off of the offensive glass. Thompson has double-digit rebounds in three consecutive games, and this is the cheapest he has been so far this season. Thompson has a decent shot at a double-double in this game, which would make him well worth his price.

The Kings are 27th in fantasy points allowed to centers this season, and Nikola Vucevic should be a solid, if unexciting DFS option. Vucevic has 14 rebounds in three of his four games this season.