Philadelphia 76ers

 


It's not really a question of do you play James Harden tonight with Joel Embiid out. It's a question of how much James Harden do you play? His usage is up 11% and his fantasy points are up nine per game when Embiid sits. His usage and assist rate with Embiid off the floor are 36.6% and 53.5%, respectively. That's 90% of the offensive possessions running through Harden tonight. But his greatest asset in this game is he simply has to play 40+ minutes for the Sixers to have a shot. 

 

 


It's Tyrese Maxey - not Shake Milton or Tobias Harris - who sees the highest usage and fantasy point bump with Embiid out. Maxey's usage bumps up against 30% in those situations. Even with Embiid, Maxey hit more than 39 fantasy points three times in six games against the Raptors. The salary seems slightly too low on all sites for the role he should have tonight. 

 

 


DeAndre Jordan logged exactly zero minutes in the Toronto series, so logic would dictate that Philadelphia would start Paul Reed tonight since they need a big body against Bam Adebayo. After three straight playoff games with double-digit fantasy points in just 10 minutes per night, Reed is likely to be the chalkiest value on a slate where there isn't a whole lot of salary relief. 

 

Miami Heat

 


Jimmy Butler missed the clinching game against the Atlanta Hawks last round, but he should be back in uniform tonight which is great news for Miami fans. Butler averaged 55.7 fantasy points per game in the four where he did suit up and never played more than 40 minutes in any of those games. Danny Green is a good defender, but he is no match for Butler in this series. 

 

 


With no Embiid to chase around tonight, Bam Adebayo looks way too cheap on all three sites tonight. He also gets the benefit from so many Miami players being Questionable heading into tonight. If any of them are limited, Bam would be an even better play. 

 

 


Tyler Herro is one of those players who is questionable tonight alongside Jimmy Butler, Caleb Martin, PJ Tucker, and Max Strus. We already know that Kyle Lowry is out, and in those situations, Herro's usage is 30% and his assist rate is 23.3%. At just $5,600 on FanDuel, Herro looks like a must-play on that site assuming he is good to go. 

 

Dallas Mavericks

 


Three straight games over 50 fantasy points since returning from the calf strain? I would say Luka Doncic is back to full health and ready to go in this series. He faces another tough test with either Chris Paul or Mikal Bridges guarding him, but he put up 45 fantasy points the last time he played this team. I personally am going to have much more Harden than Doncic tonight, but we know Doncic can easily break the slate with a 70+ point fantasy performance. He got up to 42 minutes in the last game against Utah so he shouldn't have any restrictions.

 

 


Even with Doncic back in the lineup, Jalen Brunson averaged 36 fantasy points per game in the last three games of their first-round series. A salary in the low-$7,000s looks very appealing tonight as the Suns will put their best defender on Doncic and Brunson will likely be guarded by Devin Booker. Brunson is another player likely to see 40 minutes on the court tonight if the game is close. 

 

 


With so many studs on this slate and such tight rotations, we are going to need some value and DFS provides the salary relief and the buckets of minutes we need in our lineups. Really taking an active role on defense, Dorian Finney-Smith never played less than 40 minutes in any game against the Jazz and never scored less than 22 fantasy points in any game. On DK and Yahoo especially, those numbers fit the salary we are asked to pay. 

 

Phoenix Suns

 


Devin Booker is the one star who is playing who we might need to factor in the minutes he will play. Booker missed three straight games with injury and then bounced back to play 32 minutes in game six, but he definitely looked rusty. After shooting just 5 of 12 including one of six from three, Booker finished with just 21.5 fantasy points. He has had a few days off to heal, so he should be back to his regular routine. The salary drop from $9,400 to $8,800 on FD really makes him appealing on that site. 

 

 


However you define the "best playoff performance ever",  Chris Paul's masterful game from Thursday night has to be included on the list. A perfect 14-for-14 from the floor, 4-for-4 from the foul line, five rebounds, and eight assists all in a series-clinching performance on the road. He is playing between 36-60 minutes every game and you can tell he is almost willing his team towards the Finals this season. When Paul is this locked in, it's hard to fade him. On DraftKings at just $9,100 ($1,000 less than FD), he looks much more attractive. 

 

 


There is a very good chance Mikal Bridges plays the most minutes of any player on the slate tonight. His low in the New Orleans series was 40.5 minutes and he put up at least 26 fantasy points in each contest. Don't expect another 54-point outlier from Bridges, but I wouldn't be surprised if Bridges ends up guarding Doncic all game which would give him plenty of rebound and steal opportunities. His talents are wasted if they leave him on Finney-Smith all game. 

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