Look, we have a massive Thursday night slate on our hands, and if you’ve been following along at Fantasy Alarm, you know we’re hunting for value in the trenches. Injuries are starting to pile up as we head toward the home stretch of the season, and that’s creating some massive opportunities in the player prop market.

From Jalen Green’s absurd usage in Phoenix to a "no-center" situation in Philly that Jalen Duren should feast on, I’ve got my eyes on four plays that stand out above the rest. Let’s dive into today’s NBA best bets!

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Here are the best bets and player props for today’s action.

Phoenix Suns vs Indiana Pacers Predictions - Jalen Green Over 20.5 Points

Jalen Green has looked like the scoring machine we always knew he could be. He’s cleared this 20.5 mark in three straight games, dropping 25, 24, and 25 points. But it’s not just the points; it’s the volume. Green has posted usage rates of 33%, 41%, and 30% over those last three contests.

While the Booker/Green duo is carrying the entire offensive workload right now, Devin Booker is likely to draw the tougher individual defensive assignment. That leaves Green to cook against an Indiana Pacers team that is essentially in tank mode and has been one of the worst defensive units in the league. With this much usage and a soft matchup, I’m riding the hot hand.

 

 

 

Philadelphia 76ers vs. Detroit Pistons Predictions: Jalen Duren Over 18.5 Points

If you’re looking for a smash play, this is it. The 76ers' frontcourt is completely hollow tonight with no Joel Embiid, no Adem Bona, and potentially no Andre Drummond. Even if Drummond manages to suit up through the back spasms, he’s no match for the physicality Jalen Duren is bringing right now.

Duren has cleared this 18.5 mark in back-to-back games, scoring 26 and 24 points. What’s even more impressive? He did that while playing only 22 and 26 minutes because those games were blowouts! He’s been efficient as hell, averaging 22.7 points per game over his last 10 with a 27% usage rate. Against a Philly team with zero rim protection, Duren is going to be a problem.

Dallas Mavericks vs Memphis Grizzlies Predictions - Daniel Gafford Double-Double

Daniel Gafford has been a rebounding machine lately, racking up three straight double-doubles. He’s seeing a consistent workload, averaging nearly 25 minutes over his last three games, and tonight’s matchup is a dream for a guy with his skill set.

The Memphis Grizzlies simply do not have a traditional center available right now. We’re looking at Olivier-Maxence Prosper (6'7") and Taylor Hendricks (6'8") trying to contend with Gafford’s 6'10" frame and verticality. Gafford is a high-output player when he’s on the floor, and against a decimated Grizzlies frontcourt, he should sleepwalk into double-digit boards and points.

 

 

 

Dallas Mavericks vs Memphis Grizzlies Predictions - Brandon Williams Over 12.5 Points

This might feel like a "deep cut," but Brandon Williams is a high-usage player who has been making the most of his opportunities. He’s gone over this 12.5-point total in 7 of his last 10 games, and even with Cooper Flagg active and soaking up attention, Williams has proven that his bench role isn't a problem for his scoring output.

Memphis is missing a massive chunk of its rotation and is clearly eyeing the lottery. With a projected game total of 238.5, there’s going to be plenty of scoring to go around. Williams is aggressive, attacks the rim, and should have no trouble getting to 13 points in a fast-paced environment.

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