The 2026-27 NBA season opens Tuesday with a three-game slate, and our NBA best bets are back for another year of daily picks, predictions, and player props. The action starts at 3 p.m. ET with Celtics vs. Pistons, continues with 76ers vs. Knicks at 7 p.m. on the Knicks' ring night, and closes with a Thunder vs. Spurs rematch of the Western Conference Finals at 9:30 p.m.
We're backing two sides and two player props on opening night. Here's where we're putting our money.
NBA Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 10/20
Our NBA best bets for Tuesday start with the Celtics -1.5 in Detroit and the Spurs -2.5 at home against Oklahoma City. On the prop side, we're taking Ausar Thompson Over 3.5 assists and Joel Embiid Over 21.5 points.
Lines move fast on opening night, and the Celtics-Pistons spread has already flipped from Detroit to Boston. Shop around before you bet, and get our full breakdown of each pick below.
Celtics vs. Pistons Prediction: Tuesday, 10/20
Pick: Celtics -1.5
This game opened with Detroit as a small home favorite, and the market has since moved to Boston -1.5. We agree with the move. The Celtics went 56-26 last season and finished second in the East, and they did it with Jayson Tatum playing just 16 regular-season games after his Achilles recovery. Tatum is expected to play Tuesday after resting in the preseason finale, and a full season of him changes Boston's ceiling.
Yes, Jaylen Brown is gone, but the Celtics got Paul George back in that trade, and Payton Pritchard is coming off a career year in which he averaged 17.0 points per game. Boston's preseason rotation was deep enough that the regulars sat the final exhibition entirely.
Detroit won 60 games and the No. 1 seed last season, but the roster took some hits this summer. Tobias Harris, Isaiah Stewart and Caris LeVert are all gone, and Cade Cunningham, who averaged 23.9 points and 9.9 assists last season, missed time in the preseason. The Pistons are still a tough out at home, but the market's move toward Boston makes sense.
With the total at 222.5, the lowest of the night, we expect a grind that comes down to late-game execution. Give us Tatum, George, and the deeper team. Celtics -1.5 is our first of tonight's NBA best bets.
Thunder vs. Spurs Prediction: Tuesday, 10/20
Pick: Spurs -2.5
San Antonio has had Oklahoma City's number. The Spurs won four of their five regular-season meetings last season, then beat the Thunder in seven games in the Western Conference Finals before falling to the Knicks in the NBA Finals. That's a team that has already proven it can beat the Thunder when it matters.
The Spurs went 62-20 last season, including 32-8 at Frost Bank Center. Victor Wembanyama led the way with 25.0 points and 11.5 rebounds per game, and Stephon Castle averaged 7.4 assists running the offense. They open the season at home with that core intact and plenty of motivation after falling short in the Finals.
Oklahoma City is still elite. The Thunder won 64 games last season and swept their first two playoff series. But this line has moved from Spurs -1.5 to -2.5 at DraftKings, and the total sits at 229.5. We'll side with the home team that won the season series and the playoff series. Spurs -2.5 rounds out our sides among today's NBA best bets.
Best NBA Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 10/20
Ausar Thompson Over 3.5 Assists
Detroit is handing Thompson more of the offense this season. In the preseason opener, he initiated the Pistons' offense in the first quarter while Cunningham worked off the ball, and he received 10 on-ball screens, something he did only five times all of last season. Coach J.B. Bickerstaff has also said Thompson will play more than the 26.0 minutes he averaged a year ago.
Thompson averaged 3.1 assists last season, or 4.3 per 36 minutes, so the added minutes alone push him toward this number. Add a bigger playmaking role, plus the chance Cunningham is eased in after his interrupted preseason, and the Over 3.5 assists is one of our favorite props on the board.
Joel Embiid Over 21.5 Points
Embiid averaged 26.9 points in 38 games last season, and he's walking into Madison Square Garden healthy after the Knicks swept Philadelphia last spring while he played through ankle and hip injuries. He scored 27 points in 29 minutes in the preseason finale, and he's made it clear he isn't planning to defer to LeBron James or Jaylen Brown.
His free throws give him a floor few players have. Embiid made 7.5 per game last season, which puts him a third of the way to this line before he takes a jumper. With the Knicks favored by 5.5 and a 232.5 total, the highest on the slate, the game environment is right for Embiid to clear 21.5 points.
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Then check back with Fantasy Alarm every day for new NBA best bets, picks, and predictions all season long.