NASCAR DFS Shriners Children's 500 Playbook & Top Picks

The Shriners Children’s 500 at Phoenix Raceway is the fourth race in the 2024 NASCAR Cup schedule. Phoenix has always been a unique challenge of a track and this week that’s more of the same. With a new short-track aero package on the cars for the first time, new tires from Goodyear, and the first crack at a short track, it’s full of surprises. How does NASCAR DFS strategy change here for Phoenix? What are the comparable tracks to Phoenix we can use? What were the NASCAR practice and qualifying results for the Shriners Children’s 500? Who are the top NASCAR plays for DraftKings and Fanduel this week? All that and more in this week’s Shriners Children’s 500 Playbook.

Phoenix Raceway Race Trends

Phoenix Raceway is a track that in some respects races like a short track and yet others, races like a intermediate. In terms of short track characteristics, track position is king for winning and leading laps, yet passing can happen, in favor of the intermediates. In terms of short tracks, only about half the field finishes on the lead lap due to being lapped, but like intermediates, multiple drivers can dominate a race. The chart below shows off those diametric features of Phoenix.

NASCAR DFS Strategy For Shriners Children’s 500

Given the features of Phoenix shown above, how are we building lineups? The first thing we have to target is laps led. There are 312 laps in the race, the 500 stands for kilometers (312 miles = 500 km) and with those laps comes decent dominator points. As seen above, a whopping 93-percent of laps led in the last four races have come from the top-10 starters on average and that should be no different this weekend. So we’re going to need likely two drivers starting top-10 for the laps led points. After that we need drivers that can finish in the top-10 to round out the scoring. When we look at the top-10 percentage above, no race in the last four has had more than half of the top-10 taken up by drivers starting outside the top-12. To add to that the furthest back we’ve seen a driver start and finish in the top-10 is P26. Given that this is qualified as a short track for aero package, we also have to be careful playing drivers starting too far back in the field as they can be lapped relatively quickly and cap their PD upside. There are some big names starting further back, a couple I’ve written up, but don’t just jump on them because they’re known names. We’re really looking to slot in guys starting P25 and closer while taking a shot on one guy starting further back in tournaments.

The new aero package and tires this week have proven to still be question marks in terms of actual racing. A lot of the drivers indicated that getting too close to the cars in front of them gave them handling issues and made it tough to actually complete a pass. In terms of what that means for DFS, a driver who gets a spot on a restart is more likely to be able to hold it longer than normal. The downside though is that, as we saw in practice, getting on the apron in the corners can upset the cars and cause them to spin which might induce more cautions than normal.

Practice and Qualifying Results For Phoenix

Below are the results of practice and qualifying for the Shriners Children’s 500. The table is sorted by qualifying spot with single-lap, 5-lap, 10-lap, 15-lap, and 20-lap averages shown as well. The Qual to avg column is the difference between starting spot and the average of the speed columns. It’s designed to show who might move up or hold their spots.

DraftKings Scoring Trends

The following chart shows the average points by starting spot, regardless of driver, over the last four races at Phoenix. The idea is to show the strategy in visual form. However, they aren’t meant to be hard-and-fast rules as they are averages and can be outperformed in any given race.

Fanduel Scoring Trends

The following chart shows the average points by starting spot, regardless of driver, over the last four races at Phoenix. The idea is to show the strategy in visual form. However, they aren’t meant to be hard-and-fast rules as they are averages and can be outperformed in any given race.

Top Tier Driver Plays

Ryan Blaney

Blaney is one of only three drivers to land in the top-five in both races a year ago. He appears to have the speed to do that again, based on practice, and perhaps lead laps as well. He’ll have a tall task ahead to lead laps after starting P16 but if he can, that’s even more DFS upside. In order for Blaney to hit value we need a P5 or better finish plus some dominator points. It’s a tough ask but Blaney does have three runner-up finishes in a row here and has had speed all season.

Denny Hamlin

We stated on the podcast (recorded Wednesday night) that we didn’t trust Hamlin. Apparently he heard that distrust and went out to proves us wrong by sitting on the pole. Hamlin didn’t have the best practice speeds but starting on pole here is huge. If he can hold the lead for the first few laps, Hamlin should be able to start knocking off laps led in chunks. He will be a popular play for laps led because of the pole-position, but he could drop back as well as he’s also admitted that he’s still trying to sort out this track in the Next Gen car.

Christopher Bell

Bell didn’t get a ton of credit for having a fast car here last Fall before the brake failure killed his day. He led the field in multiple speed metrics in practice on Friday and will roll off P13 for the race. If Bell can put together a complete race at Phoenix for the first time in the Gen 7 car, it could be a huge points day for Bell in terms of PD and with a shot to lead some laps.

Mid-Tier Driver Plays

Ross Chastain

Chastain won the last race at Phoenix despite not being in the Championship Four; it was the first time that’d ever happened. Chastain has had speed here in the past as well and has brought speed to a few races already this year. If the 1-car has the same top-five long-run speed in the race on Sunday as it did in practice on Friday, it could be another very good run for Chastain. Starting P12 with top-five upside also brings nice PD upside too.

Chase Briscoe

All Briscoe does is nab top-10s at Phoenix. He’s won, finished P4 and P7 in three of his four Next Gen races at Phoenix. Briscoe will start inside the top-10 on Sunday but had questionable practice speed. The team likely made fixes to the car between Friday and Saturday (which was allowed) and hence the faster speed on Saturday for qualifying. Given his ability to finish top-10 there is a good shot that he can hold this starting position fairly well and bring it home in a spot to hit value.

Bubba Wallace

Wallace has been better here in each of the last four races. He’s gone from P22 to P10 in that span. He’ll start P22 this week but showed top-five speed in practice on Friday evening. The Toyotas in general were good at short tracks last year, in terms of solid finishes. If Wallace can harness that same long run speed and pair it with his improving finishes here, there is some serious upside from the driver of the 23 car.

Alex Bowman

It’s a home track for Bowman, but that’s not always meant the best runs here. In the last eight races at Phoenix, Bowman has seven top-20s but just one top-10. He’ll start outside the top-20 on Sunday and ran top-10 speeds in practice. That does bode well for results in Sunday’s race for the hometown driver, however, he’s shown that speed before and not managed to nab the results expected. There is risk here of a finish in the 15-16 range which barely hits 5x value. There is top-10 upside though which could make him a slate breaker, not to mention that starting P25 has resulted in the 9th most points per race on both sites in the last four races.

Josh Berry

Berry screwed up his qualifying lap and will start dead last. Ordinarily that would be great free PD potential but at Phoenix that is a bit trickier. Looking above the drivers starting far in the back are typically the worst scorers but Berry is a bit different. He’s got a lot of experience at shorter, flatter tracks and the SHR group tend to do well here, including the team that set up the 4-car for Harvick. Play him with caution because of the threat of being lapped early.

Value Tier Driver Plays

John H. Nemechek

Nemechek qualified P12 for Sunday’s race. At a track like Phoenix that will be a big boost. While he didn’t run that well here in the previous generation of Cup car, he did run very well here in the Xfinity series with three top-10s in his last four races. If he can hold his spot, he pays off value but there’s a sneaky top-10 shot here.

Austin Cindric

Cindric had a rough qualifying session that has him pinned in the back of the field. That gives very nice PD upside if he can harness the speed from practice and catches some breaks to move up. The concerning part of the starting spot is if he doesn’t move up quickly, he can get pinned a lap or more down. Looking above at the scoring trends, starting outside the top-25 hasn’t been great so we’ll need Cindric to get moving to break that trend.

Daniel Hemric

It’s been three straight top-20s for Hemric to start the season. Granted this week we’ve got less PD upside for him than we’ve had previously. However, as a counter to that, he’s been solid here between the Xfinity Series and Cup series. A second counter is that we only need him to finish P18 or better to hit value. That’s not a huge ask at this point.

Player Pool

$ Tier	{{pos.alias}}

Stacks

{{stack.team.name}}	{{player.name}}
DraftKings	{{player.fantasy.price.value[8]}}-
Fanduel	{{player.fantasy.price.value[6]}}-