Only one Playbook from this week as the Trucks are off until next weekend. But last weekend was pretty successful (for me, at least) for Xfinity as my Cash lineup posted 302 points. Thanks Joey Gase! Now we turn to Phoenix, one of the weirdest track configurations on the schedule. As discussed many times in the past (and on this week’s podcast), this is a flat, one-mile track with a dogleg on the back stretch where the field spreads out as some dive very low to cut the corner and move through the pack. This track breeds some very solid racing so we should be in for a competitive race this weekend. 

 

 

We’ll get 200 laps on Saturday. That translates to 140 dominator points, but we know with cautions we won’t get that many. The stages will be broken up into 45-45-110 lap segments. We could see a fair number of cautions. The last six races have each seen at least seven cautions for at least 45 laps and given the shorter nature of this track, it’s not one where you want to fall multiple laps down.

Here’s the schedule for Saturday:

  • 11:30am ET – Practice
  • 12:00pm ET – Qualifying
  • 4:30pm ET – Let’s Go Racin’

As always, I’ll be in the NASCAR DFS Discord starting at 12:00pm ET and I’ll be in there through the end of the race so don’t hesitate to ask me questions and I’ll post updates when red notes are added and when the Example Lineups are available.

PRACTICE RESULTS

 

Qualifying Order

 

Driver Pool

Justin Allgaier ($11,500) – Allgaier will likely be pretty chalky and popular on Saturday, but that’s been the case the last few weeks as he’s started outside the top 15 in all three races this year and finished in the top eight in all three as well. Shorter, flatter tracks are right up his alley. He’s won here twice in his last ten races here and in that span he’s led at least 50 laps in six of those ten races. He’s also been very strong at Richmond the last few years with back-to-back wins over the weekend in September 2020 and numerous top five finishes. No matter where he starts, he’ll likely be popular and deservedly so. The only format I’d consider fading him is in a large-field single-entry GPP. Update: Allgaier chalk incoming once again as he'll start outside the top 20. Not really sure what's going on with him. He's been pretty terrible in qualifying this year and he wasn't terribly fast in practice. However, we know he's good and he has a ton of PD on his side. Ownership will be heavy though.

Noah Gragson ($11,200) – It kind of goes without saying that Gragson is in play on any slate at this point. Regardless of the track, he’s shown up and been fast wherever. He’s finished in the top three in the first three races of the season including back-to-back runner-up finishes. Plus, he’s collecting dominator points as well. He’s had decent success at Phoenix, but he also won at Richmond and Martinsville last year. I’ll mix him into my lineups no matter where he starts. Update: he's on the front row for Saturday's action and he was fast in practice and qualifying. Most importantly, he commented that he really loves the car today.

Ty Gibbs ($10,900) – I don’t really know how much exposure I’ll have to Gibbs this week, but he’s coming off his first win of the season and his price tag dropped $100. He started P27 in this race a year ago and finished as the runner-up. Another thing worth noting is that Ryan Sieg is still probably pretty pissed off at him. Gibbs essentially wrecked Sieg very early at Vegas when he didn’t need to be so aggressive. Gibbs gave the old “Well I wasn’t trying to do it on purpose” excuse. Doesn’t matter, you wrecked him because you were too aggressive too early. And then Sieg made an ass out of himself trying to wreck Gibbs, but Sieg ultimately wrecked himself and made contact with a few other drivers as well. So this is the kind of track where bad blood could boil over. I’m hopeful Sieg can put it behind him and try to run a competitive race. This might be a situation worth keeping an eye on as we get closer to Saturday’s race. Overall, I have a hard time fading one of the most talented drivers in the field in some of the best equipment. Update: Nothing new to report on Gibbs. He was fast in practice and qualified P3. Nobody's surprised.

Josh Berry ($10,200) – The price tag is high, but could force DFS players to pivot off him. This is the kind of track Berry thrives on. He raced at Phoenix last Spring and wrecked out, but he’s a well-known short track racer as we saw in his win at Martinsville last Spring. He also has a top ten to his name from Richmond last year and a pair of top 12 finishes at Iowa as well. When he wasn’t running in the Xfinity Series last year you could probably find him running late models or other models in his down time. He loves racing anything, especially on shorter tracks so he’s a strong play this week. 

John Hunter Nemechek ($9,200) – Last week’s result doesn’t quite do it justice regarding how good JHN’s car was. He was consistently running in the top 15 and some late-race shenanigans ultimately had him finish 12th for a less-than-stellar DFS output. He was much better than a 12th place car. But for this week, he’s solid on flat tracks. Hell, at the Championship race in the Fall, he finished third in both stages and led over 30 laps. Now that was in JGR equipment, but I still think he can get this Sam Hunt car to a top five. We’d prefer a little PD, but I don’t think that’ll be the case. He’s a great GPP option regardless, and a fine Cash game play if he somehow starts outside the top 12. Update: Qualified P11 which is perfectly fine and we know he can get a top five out of this equipment. However, I'm weary of his comments to Jamie Little. He didn't seem enthusiastic about the car's long run speed.

Sam Mayer ($8,700) – Yes, Yes, Yes… Another JRM driver. They’re loaded with guys who thrive on this style of track, what can I say? Mayer, like Berry, is better on shorter tracks although I may give Berry the edge on flatter tracks. Mayer was 13th at Phoenix last Fall, 4th at Martinsville in the Fall, and he was 12th at Richmond. Don’t forget in 2020 he almost won the Truck Series race at Gateway. He’s young and very talented. The misfortunes the first couple weeks this season may lighten ownership. Dare I say suggest some JRM stacks? Let’s see how qualifying shakes out on Saturday. Update: I'm not really going here in Cash games. That would be a bit too bold. Still love him in GPP's as he qualified P7.

Riley Herbst ($8,000) – We’ll never feel completely confident when rostering Herbst. That’s a given. However, over the last two years he hasn’t been dominant at Phoenix, but he’s been consistent. He finished fourth in both races last year with SHR and in 2020 he finished 11th and 10th with JGR. We’re also getting Herbst at a bit of a discount this week so I’m curious to see where he qualifies. For what it’s worth, he grabbed a top five at Richmond and top tens last year at Martinsville and New Hampshire so he may just be more comfortable on flatter tracks. Update: Qualified P21 so I think he's eligible in Cash games. Wasn't outstanding in practice or qualifying, but if he stays clean he can get a top ten. It's SHR equipment, so the pressure is on him as a driver.

Austin Hill ($7,800) – Hill has been okay on shorter tracks throughout his career, most notably in the Truck Series. The results are decent, but nothing outstanding. I mostly want exposure to Hill this week because after winning Daytona he wrecked in the last two races so that’s negatively impacted his results. But his RCR car has had speed so far this year and the price tag on DK is under the average price tag. Based on the eyeball test I’d say Hill should be about $700-$1,000 more. I’m guessing he’ll probably qualify in the top ten with top five finish upside. We should be taking advantage of this discount because if he starts running cleaner races and logging solid finishes, we’ll miss the days he was this cheap. Update: Hill will start just outside the top 10 and the opinion on him hasn't really changed. I'll be going here in GPP's.

Anthony Alfredo ($7,600) - Play at your own risk but there's a ton of PD here. He didn't qualify do to a broken drive shaft. I don't think you need to necessarily go here because there are plenty of other PD options. Again, play at your own risk.

Kyle Sieg ($6,700) – Another week and another price increase for Kyle Sieg. We can’t really be too surprised given the DFS output: 36 points at Daytona, 45 at Auto Club, and 35 last week. The impressive thing about last week is that he started in the top 25 and finished 16th. Previously at Auto Club and Daytona he started outside the top 35 so given that he’s under $7,000 I’m willing to go back to the well. Sieg ran in the championship race last year without a memorable finish, but he did finish on the lead lap. He also has experience in the ARCA Series at Phoenix so I don’t necessarily consider him inexperienced. I’ll keep paying the price tag as long as he keeps paying it off. Update: GPP only.

Kaz Grala ($6,400) – I have not been disappointed in what I’ve seen from Alpha Prime Racing. Have the results been outstanding? No, but this is the value range and they haven’t been killing lineups, with maybe the exception of Tommy Joe Martins at Auto Club. But last week Ryan Ellis finished 13th at Vegas in the 44-car. Grala finished 25th at Auto Club and 23rd last week at Vegas. Grala’s also about $1,000 cheaper than he’s been the last two races and Ellis is only $100 cheaper. Phoenix is a completely different track, but if the equipment holds up they could be useful. I’m going to attempt to sprinkle some exposure to both drivers in GPP’s and if they offer immense PD then I’ll be willing to play them in Cash games. Update: Ellis qualified P35, and Grala qualified P27. I'm partial to Grala, but I'll mix in shares of Ellis. Neither were particularly amazing in practice, but the PD makes them both appealing.

Jeffrey Earnhardt ($6,100) – I made the mistake of not having Earnhardt in my builds two weeks ago at Fontana, and I don’t want to make that same mistake again. Granted, the tracks are night and day, and Earnhardt will be in the 35-car for Emerling-Gase, which has been solid. Joey Gase got a top 20 out of this ride at Auto Club and we used him again for solid results last week as a late addition in the Example Lineups. I like the potential for Earnhardt this week given what he was able to do in Sam Hunt Racing equipment. Flatter tracks may not be his preferred track type, but I’m willing to roll the dice here if this Emerling-Gase ride stays clean once again. Update: Part of my thinks this is a good leverage spot for Earnhardt. I think many people will go right down to Buford for salary relief (and I will too). But this equipment has produced decent results so far and he's starting outside the top 30 so the PD is there.

Bayley Currey ($5,900) – Personally, I didn’t roll the dice on Currey last week, but I know many of you did. I know he was involved in some late carnage, but you still got over 6X value from him last week. We rode Currey to low ownership at this race a year ago and he grabbed a top ten finish for us in one of my better DFS performances last Spring at Phoenix. Sure, I also have some interest in Currey because I’m partial to Ghost, who will be sponsoring his car this week. 

I don’t necessarily think it’ll make the car faster, but he’s coming off a top 20 finish that could’ve been better and he has some decent results at this flatter tracks. Consider me interested in the Little Sunshine Mobile. Update: Currey was top 25 in practice speed and went out and qualified in the top 15. I don't love that for DFS. He's damn near impossible to play in Cash games and I likely won't get too much exposure in GPP's.

Jade Buford ($5,300) – This will come down to where he qualifies. Buford was at least $6,000 for each of the first three races of the season and he has a total of -19 DFS points on DraftKings so far. Part of that is because he’s qualified inside the top 15 in each race and he’s finished outside the top 20. So the negative PD has certainly hurt him. He’s also not great on flatter tracks, but the sample size is pretty small. If he qualifies poorly then he’s in play in Cash and GPP’s. He has top 20 upside, even top 15 upside if he stays clean. If he qualifies in the top 20 then keep exposure to just GPP’s. He’s just had some bad luck to start the year and DK is giving us a discount.  Update: Buford will be the go-to chalky “punt” option. The price is too cheap and he's finally offering PD as he qualified outside the top 30. He flashed top 20 speed in practice. I'm fine going here to open up salary in Cash and GPP's.

Drivers To Keep An Eye On During Practice/Qualifying: To avoid getting questions like “Why isn’t this guy in the Playbook?” I simply try not to write up the entire field while only leaving out the crappiest back markers. But as you all know, I’ve been adding updates in red following practice and qualifying before I submit the Example Lineups. So here are a few guys we can keep an eye on because practice qualifying could change how I view them.

  • Trevor Bayne – We know the equipment is elite. JGR thrives on shorter tracks at all levels so the set-up should be in his favor. He also greatly exceeded my expectations when we saw him two weeks ago at Auto Club. Update: Bayne was fast in practice and qualified on the pole. I think ownership will be moderate, but he has a clear path to early dominator points and I'm perfectly fine using him in all formats.
  • Sheldon Creed – I like him for all the reasons I like Austin Hill, but Hill is just cheaper and it’s quite possible they both relegate themselves to GPP exposure if they qualify in the top 12.
  • Brett Moffitt – Depends on where he starts, but he grabbed a pair of top tens here a year ago and is coming off a strong finish at Vegas last week. Update: He was top 5 in practice but qualified P18. We love to target guys whose practice speeds were much better than the qualifying spot. He's a borderline Cash Game play, but I absolutely love the play in GPP's.
  • Brandon Brown – Finished third here a year ago, but other than that the results are so-so. He’s a relatively safe option for a top 12-15 finish. We like him even more if he offers PD. Update: Qualified outside the top 25 and we know he has top 12 upside. This feels like a trap so I won't go too heavy in DFS given the variance in this series. But on paper, this play makes sense.

Where is Kaulig Racing? Truthfully, I just want to see how they look first. Dinger’s been on the pole the last two races and while he’s collected dominator points in those races, he’s slid backward and hasn’t been able to truly dominate a race. Daniel Hemric can get his car to the front with the right setup and based off what Cassill has shown so far, he needs to give us PD before we roster him. That probably explains why his price tag is dropping. Practice and Qualifying will be big for this team. As of right now, I’m not in love with any of these drivers but that could change tomorrow… Update: All the Kaulig cars qualified outside the top 10. I'm fine mixing them all in, but they didn't flash the greatest speeds in practice. Either way, this is a good team and they offer PD. I don't think I'll necessarily target a lot of them, but I won't completely fade either of these three guys.

Example Lineups

The Example Lineups are not meant to be plugged and played, but rather to show you how to construct lineups based on where drivers qualify/start and who we like to collect dominator points. We encourage you to build your own lineups off of the drivers and strategies discussed above.

DraftKings Cash Game Example Lineup

  1. Justin Allgaier
  2. Noah Gragson
    1. Ty Gibbs (Pivot)
  3. Jade Buford
  4. Riley Herbst
  5. Kaz Grala
    1. Jeffrey Earnhardt (Pivot)
  6. Anthony Alfredo
    1. Myatt Snider (Pivot)

 

DraftKings GPP Example Lineup

  1. Justin Allgaier
    1. Daniel Hemric (Pivot)
  2. Trevor Bayne
  3. Sam Mayer
    1. Riley Herbst (Pivot)
  4. Jade Buford
    1. Anthony Alfredo (Pivot)
  5. Brett Moffitt
  6. Brandon Brown