NASCAR DFS Playbook The Loop 121: Top DraftKings Picks

The NASCAR Xfinity Series has the privilege of kicking off the holiday weekend with the first ever race on the Chicago Street Course. The Loop 121 may be a terrible name for a race, but it’s an opportunity for us NASCAR DFS degenerates to make a little money while digging into some hot dogs, hamburgers, and adult beverages (or mocktails if you don’t drink). The best part of this race is that there are ZERO Cup Series drivers cluttering up the field. We’re getting a full Xfinity Series field featuring Justin Allgaier, Cole Custer, John Hunter Nemechek, Austin Hill, Josh Berry, Sammy Smith, Sam Mayer, and more! We’re also going to see Trackhouse Racing owner Justin Marks step into the 10-car for Kaulig Racing as well as a few others to get their chops in at The Loop 121 near Grant Park in downtown Chicago!

This track layout is 2.2 miles in length, and it features a few more right turns than left. Truthfully, nobody has any idea what to expect until we get to practice and qualifying for Saturday’s race. All eyes will be on the Xfinity Series race to base expectations for Sunday’s Grant Park 220 for the NASCAR Cup Series. A.J. Allmendinger and a few others have been vocal about the lack of run off on this track and don’t be surprised if there are a ton of cautions as well.

By all accounts, the track is pretty tight and narrow. And we only have 55 laps for this race. Yes, you read that right. 55 laps divided into 15-15-25 lap segments and we could see an excess of cautions. If I’m being honest, I’d rather bet this race than build lineups for DFS. 55 laps mean we have at most 38 dominator points to target for leaders. So normally we would focus on position differential and drivers to finish well. But passing could be difficult on Saturday and the new road course rules mean we won’t have stage breaks. So without much to go off of, this is an incredibly difficult race to read for DFS. Below is a driver pool to consider ahead of Saturday afternoon’s race, but let’s keep an open mind and see how practice and qualifying shakes out and make necessary adjustments. It might be a good week to go lighter than normal.

The Loop 121 Practice Notes

NASCAR DFS Driver Pool

As always, there will be updates in RED following practice and qualifying.

Cole Custer ($10,600)

Custer had a rough go of it at COTA with a horrible finish outside the top 30. Since then he’s had nine straight finishes in the top ten, with six of those being in the top five, including a win at Portland. This is a bit of a premium that we’re paying for Custer on a road/street course, especially one that only has 55 laps. But there is still some win equity with Custer and he could still be optimal with another top five finish and if he collects some dominator points along the way.

Justin Allgaier ($10,400)

It likely won’t be advised to play both Custer and Allgaier together but we’ll see what happens during qualifying. But ahead of qualifying they probably are my two favorite plays in the $10K range. Allgaier has finished top five in 8-of-15 races this year and he was second at Portland where he led 23 laps. When no Cup drivers are permitted to run the Xfinity Series race, I’m of the mindset that Allgaier gets some extra win equity. He does have some road course wins from prior years, but without any Cup drivers, Allgaier can put up a similar performance to what he did at Portland.

Sheldon Creed ($10,200)

It's not necessarily bold to add Creed in here last minute. He flashed speed in practice (obviously) but he was one of the few drivers that quickly caught on to making clean passes at this track. He still could go out there and disappoint but he seemed a little more comfortable on the track than most drivers. Another Update: Going to go with a blue update to be a little patriotic. Creed decided to go hard to win the pole after he was already going to start P2. Well Creed did what he does best and junked the car and will have to make repairs or go to the rear for a backup car. Very difficult to play from at this point.

Parker Kligerman ($9,900)

Kligerman will always be interesting in a format like this. It’s technically a road course, which is a niche for him, and he has good form heading into this weekend. He started and finished 14^th at Portland but had 13 fastest laps with an average running position in the top ten and a driver rating over 100. He followed that up with a top five at Sonoma and he finished 11^th at Nashville last week with 22 laps led. He’s also been in the Chicago area ahead of this weekend’s race doing extra coverage and vignettes for NBC so he’s getting a feel for it with the eyeball test.

Sammy Smith ($9,500)

Smith always seems to be a GPP-only type play. His results this year have all been very “all or nothing” so be careful with how much exposure you give him in your NASCAR DFS lineups. Smith scored a win at Phoenix earlier in the year and finishes second at Martinsville. And on road courses he finished fourth at COTA and ninth at Sonoma. Last year he had an engine issue at Road America but finished third at Watkins Glen.

Sam Mayer ($9,300) 

Mayer has scored top ten finishes at all three road courses this season, including an outstanding run at Portland where he started P36 and finished third. Even in 2022 Mayer was top ten at road courses like COTA, Indy Road Course, Watkins Glen, and he was 11^th at the Roval. He comes into Chicago with five top ten finishes in his last six races and truthfully there’s a little win equity here as well. I think he’s a fun bet to win outright and you can find him at +1500 on some sportsbooks. Update: Mayer got into a wreck toward the end of his qualifying session as he was trying to avoid Dexter Bean's car. Mayer took on some damage that they'll need to repair so this does downgrade him a little bit.

Justin Marks ($8,900)

Marks should have a top ten car on Saturday, potentially a top five car as well. He opened at about +2500 to win outright at a couple sportsbooks and as of Friday afternoon it had moved to +2000. I’m not overly worried about rust or anything like that. While he is the owner of Trackhouse Racing he still finds his way into the occasional race even if it may be other series. The 10-car for Kaulig Racing has been fast all year. A.J. Allmendinger won at COTA and Nashville this year and he finished second at Sonoma. Additionally, Kyle Larson even scored a win in this car as well at Darlington. $8,900 seems like a soft price tag for a car that should be very fast on Saturday. Update: Marks posted the fastest single lap in practice so the car is capable of contending for a lead as expected. Marks also just missed out on the final round of qualifying so he'll offer some PD starting just outside the top ten.

Josh Berry ($8,500)

I know he was $500 cheaper at Sonoma and he ultimately finished 33^rd, but it still feels a little too cheap for a driver in great equipment that finished fourth at Portland and eighth at COTA. I don’t necessarily think he’s looking ahead to the Cup Series in 2024 too much, but it is a little shocking that he doesn’t have a win this season. Overall Berry has top five finishes in about half the races this season so he’s still doing well, but he does seem too cheap once again this weekend.

Daniel Hemric ($8,300)

I was tempted to also put Riley Herbst ($8,100) in the Playbook after his runner-up finish a week ago, but I’m going to give Hemric the lean as of right now. Hemric finished sixth at COTA earlier in the year and he was 13^th at Sonoma. The diluted talent field benefits him and I’m sure he’s been asking A.J. Allmendinger for tips with what to expect this weekend. Exposure to Hemric and Herbst will likely depend on where they qualify, but both are affordable and on my GPP radar for Saturday.

Brandon Jones ($7,900)

Jones is rarely a slam dunk in the Xfinity Series, but he’s a bit underpriced for what we’ve seen from him do on comparable tracks. He finished 11^th at COTA and 13^th at Portland. He even finished 21^st at Sonoma after starting P28 so it’s not like the whole day was a DFS loss. This price tag seems a little low for someone who can finish in the top 12 and if he qualifies poorly then we’re looking at some PD points. Again, another guy to monitor in practice and qualifying Saturday afternoon.

Ryan Sieg ($7,700)

If I’m being honest, Ryan Sieg tends to overperform on road courses. His speed metrics are usually toward the bottom of the practice notes and he tends to qualify poorly. He started P31, P24, and P34 at COTA, Portland, and Sonoma respectively. Even last year he qualified outside the top 25 in five road courses. But we don’t care about where he starts, we care about the finish. He had some top 15 finishes on road courses last year, but only one top 20 finish this year which came at Portland. I’m not overly optimistic he’ll have a ton of speed, but it’s still possible that he finishes well if he avoids chaos. I don’t love the play, but again if he qualifies poorly, then I anticipate he’ll be a popular PD play which will be fine for Cash games, but possibly worth fading in Tournaments. Update: Top 15 practice speed for Sieg so needless to say, I am somewhat impressed.

Connor Mosack ($6,900)

In all honesty this could turn into a spot where we fade Mosack. He has run Sam Hunt Racing equipment for nine races this year and has just one top ten finish and one other top 20. As good of a driver as he may be, he’s prone to late carnage. But his good finishes this year were at Portland (eighth) and COTA (19^th) so on a track/course like this he may be worth the gamble since he gets to run in the 19-car for Joe Gibbs Racing. Would I be surprised if he found a way to junk this ride? Not one bit. He’s worth mentioning in the Playbook but could become an easy fade on Saturday. Update: Mosack managed to put up a top 10 practice speed which isn't too surprising given the equipment.

Jeremy Clements ($6,800)

I don’t love the $7K range too much, so the $6K range is where I might land prior to practice and qualifying. Clements does have a win at Road America, but overall he’s had top 20 upside on road courses in the Xfinity Series. So far this year he’s finished 14^th (COTA), 22^nd (Portland), and 17^th (Sonoma). He also had four top 20 finishes on road courses a year ago. If we add in more variance to this race, then that could help his upside and I don’t hate the safety net we’re getting at under $7K.

Sage Karam ($6,500)

My opinion of Karam could easily change after practice & qualifying on Saturday, but I do like Karam’s upside. Sure, he’s running an Alpha Prime car, but he is one of the more qualified drivers in this field. He’s run plenty of races in other series on street courses that don’t have a ton of runoff. Now with that said, he’s run four Xfinity Series races this year and he’s had mechanical issues in three of those so it’s not even a guarantee that his experience allows him to finish this race. Update: Karam looked really good in practice posting the 11th-fastest lap in practice.

Alex Guenette ($6,000)

Here’s a driver that most common Xfinity Series fans (myself included) aren’t all that familiar with. He does have some experience running the NASCAR Xfinity Series and Truck Series from years past, but he’ll be in the 36-car for DGM Racing this weekend. I say it all the time when we get to road courses, but this team sets up their cars well for road courses and I can’t imagine it’ll be any different for a street course. We’ll know for certain once we see practice and qualifying, but he’s had success the last couple seasons running in NASCAR Pinty’s Series north of the border. This is a great price tag for potentially a top 15 driver.

Spencer Pumpelly ($5,500)

Pumpelly finished 29^th at Portland in 2022 with SS Green Light Racing after getting caught in an accident. But remember that was a race heavily impacted by rain. In 2021 he finished 19^th at COTA and 24^th at Indy Road Course. He has plenty of experience racing in the IMSA SportsCar Championship Series. Given the other options in this price range I don’t hate the experience we’re getting out of him at $5,500. Update: We're gonna have to find a pivot in this range. Pumpelly got into a tire barrier towards the end of his qualifying session and sustained damage to the rear of his car.

Joe Graf Jr. ($4,900)

I’m a glutton for punishment writing up Graf, but he’s under $5K and he’s driving for RSS Racing, a team that managed to pull out a win with Aric Almirola at Sonoma. Is that promising for Graf? No because he’s terrible. However, he gained five spots of PD and finished 30^th. Not a great finish, but not the end of the day. He also finished 23^rd and 31^st at Portland and Sonoma where he gained seven spots of PD as well. He’s finished 25^th or better in 9-of-15 races this year. We don’t know what to expect from this race and his equipment is decent and can pay off this price tag if he finishes top 25.

NASCAR DFS Core Plays