After a wild, caution-filled weekend at Circuit of the Americas for all three series, we’re dealt a unique scheduling decision by NASCAR as the calendar turns to April. The NASCAR Xfinity and Cup Series will head to Richmond Raceway for a two-day show while the Craftsman Truck Series will stay in the Lone Star State and head to Texas Motor Speedway for 167 laps around the 1.5-mile tri-oval of Texas Motor Speedway. The schedules for all three series overlap a little bit, which isn’t good when trying to prepare for a race from a DFS perspective. But there’s still an opportunity to make some money and build our bankrolls so let’s dig into this weekend’s NASCAR DFS top plays.
Texas Motor Speedway underwent a recent repave back in 2017 and the racing since hasn’t been very good. Track position and clean air if you can get out front are crucial for this track. The leader can easily run away with the stage and that’s why you’ll see a lot of people complain about the quality of racing here. It can be pretty boring and if you played light this weekend, I wouldn’t really fault you.
Texas Motor Speedway compares mostly to a few other 1.5-mile tracks such as Charlotte, Vegas, and Kansas. It’s as basic as an intermediate track can come. 167 total laps give us about 105-110 dominator points to work with when we account for cautions and stage breaks. Over the last five Truck Series races at Texas we’ve actually seen dominator points collected by multiple drivers. In last year’s race we saw Stewart Friesen win while grabbing 24.9 dominator points. Christian Eckes finished second and notched 15.4 dominator points while Ryan Preece, who came in third, collected 13.95 dominators. Even John Hunter Nemechek, who started on the pole and finished sixth, finished with 12.95 dominator points. In the June 2021 race, two drivers secured over 20 dominator points (John Hunter Nemechek and Chase Elliott). In June 2020, three drivers scored over 15 dominator points (Kyle Busch, Chrisian Eckes, and Zane Smith). Now it’s entirely possible that we see a single dominator. It has happened before so don’t entirely commit to two-dominator builds. If building 20+ lineups, reserve a few builds with a solo dominator in mind.
Traditionally, Truck races at Texas have only been 147 laps. Since this race is somewhat of a stand-alone competition this weekend, we have 167 laps for the trucks so there are extra dominators to be had for our lineup builds. As far as position differential goes, we should expect to see the good teams run well. We don’t normally see a ton of variance on a track like this, but anything can happen. The teams in better equipment should move up through the field if they qualify poorly, but there will be a few smaller teams that will likely steal a top ten as well. So, if you can nail the two dominators and get four other drivers that score well with their finishing position or position differential, you’re going to finish well in the money.
Here’s another thing to make note of for just this race: there will be modified pit stops for Texas where drivers cannot gain or lose spots on pit road under caution. The reasoning is because most full-time teams will be in Richmond for the Cup and Xfinity races. So the first stage for the Truck race is actually the longest at 77 laps. But there will be a competition caution on lap 35 for teams to make adjustments if necessary. So basically, there are cautions at laps 35, 77, and 122. Now if anyone pits under a green lap then they can still lose position depending on the speed of their pit stop. The modified rule only applies to cautions.
This weekend’s schedule will be a little tough to navigate. I am out of town for a personal matter so I’m only covering the Truck Series Playbook. Matt Selz is going to cover the Xfinity Series Playbook for Richmond because he’ll be doing the Cup race as well for Sunday so he’s already got his strategies for building DFS lineups for that short track calibrated. This Playbook will not be updated following qualifying. Qualifying and Practice are not televised for the Truck race and I won’t be by my computer. I will do my very best to provide updates via my phone in the NASCAR DFS Discord. I will acknowledge who I’m upgrading, downgrading, and Core Plays will be live in there as well so it’s more important than ever to be in the Discord and I’ll pin my updates in there as well since I won’t be able to get to my computer that afternoon. Given that we can’t see practice or qualifying and the pit crew situation, I’m doing just one Cash lineup and one GPP build to get the Iron Man credit and will be playing this race pretty light.
SpeedyCash.com 250 Driver Pool
Zane Smith ($10,900)
Zane had an eventful race last year at Texas. He was getting mixed up with a few different drivers and had to work his way through the field a time or two. And with about 20 laps to go he was running tenth when he cut a tire on a long green flag run and he started losing laps. Ultimately it wasn’t a great day for him. But here we are in 2023 with no John Hunter Nemechek or Chandler Smith. Zane has become the class of the field as evidenced by his wins at Daytona and COTA, and he was second at Vegas. Zane did finish third and sixth in previous races with GMS Racing and he performed well on the comparable tracks last year with a win at Kansas and a top five finish at Charlotte where he led over 50 laps. He’ll be the most expensive driver in the field, but he can pay off this price tag with a top five and some dominator points.
Ty Majeski ($10,700)
The price tag is fair for Majeski but I do wish he was a little cheaper. That won’t deter me from playing him. At this price you do need him to lead laps and potentially win, which he certainly can do. He’s a fan favorite in the series given his back story of how he worked in the garage for ThorSport just to earn a chance to drive for a few races. Now he’s landed a full-time ride and he made his way into the Championship Four last year. Majeski has qualified in the first two rows of each race and hasn’t finished worse than 11th so far. He doesn’t have a win (yet), but he’s been very consistent and we have to assume he’ll collect two or three wins this year. He finished fifth last year at Texas and he was fourth last month at Vegas with 13 fastest laps. When a driver is grabbing fastest laps without leading, there’s pure speed in the ride.
Christian Eckes ($10,100)
Eckes has raced here three times and finished second on two separate occasions where he was a contributing dominator in DFS. The lone race he didn’t do well at Texas was in the Fall of 2020 where he was caught in a wreck, but he had an average running position of seventh before the day ended with three laps to go. Kansas is a comparable track where Eckes has five straight top ten finishes, including four results in the top six or better. Overall, he’s done pretty well on standard 1.5-mile tracks in his career with an additional win at Vegas and a top five last year at Charlotte. Prior to COTA, where he finished 30th due to a suspension issue, he had finished third, sixth, and first in the three races to kick off the 2023 season.
Stewart Friesen ($9,900)
As noted above, Friesen won this race last year leading 60 laps. Honestly, it was one of the more impressive runs we’ve seen from him as he logged a 143.9 driver rating and finishing second in the first two stages on his way to victory. His overall average finish here is diminished a little bit because he wrecked in the two previous races but since Texas was repaved he does have the win from last year to go with two other runner-up finishes as well. It has been a pretty frustrating season for Friesen considering he doesn’t have a top ten yet, but keep in mind two of those races were drafting races and another was a high variance road course. This is a week he can bounce back.
Carson Hocevar ($9,500)
We haven’t really seen the Carson Hocevar that was able to lead 40+ laps in a race like he did on a few occasions last year. In fact he only has one top ten finish to start the year and a pair of finishes outside the top 30 at Atlanta and COTA. However, with the return to normalcy at a track like Texas, Hocevar can excel here. A few weeks ago he was able to lead 19 laps at Vegas and finish seventh. Last year we saw him lead 57 laps at Charlotte before he finished 16th, but he also led 28 laps at Kansas before losing the lead late and finishing second. And on top of that he was top five at Texas last year. Perhaps the intermediate tracks are more his bread & butter and we see him bounce back in a big way this weekend.
Nick Sanchez ($9,300)
Sanchez has shown up every week with speed in his 2-truck for Rev Racing. The partnership with Kyle Busch Motorsports certainly helps but he’s qualified fourth or better in three of the first four races this year. That’s largely made him unplayable from a DFS perspective, but he’s coming in with finishes of fourth and seventh in his last two races. At a certain point, the qualifying efforts will pay off and he’ll come out of nowhere to collect some dominator points and win. I don’t quite trust the floor yet to play him in Cash games. But he’s absolutely viable in Tournaments. In his career in the ARCA Series he won at Kansas twice and performed well at Charlotte. Eventually he’s going to break the slate on one of these intermediate tracks. Now this price tag is an eyesore and honestly this portion was written before pricing came out. I will leave him in the Playbook but he might be a target we go light on if he qualifies too high.
Tyler Ankrum ($8,700)
Ankrum has raced Texas in the Truck Series six times and has four top ten finishes. He came close to making it five last year, but he overheated and finished outside the top 30. However, during that race he had an average runnng position of 12th so the final result doesn’t speak to his overall speed. He finished 15th just a couple weeks ago at Vegas and this is a comparable track so I do think he’s one of the better mid-range plays heading into practice and qualifying.
Rajah Caruth ($7,800)
Caruth is someone I haven’t given much consideration to so far this year, but there has been speed and we need to keep in mind he’s very young and is learning the ropes. Last week he scored his first top 15 of the season at COTA. I’ve come to terms with the fact that he’ll likely qualify in the top 20 and that’s fine, I’m mostly viewing him as a Tournament play even ahead of qualifying. The equipment is still above average for Caruth and I’m trusting the speed to be there once again and hopefully he can secure his first top ten of the season.
Bret Holmes ($7,600)
Holmes is a guy I think I want to lock into my build ahead of P&Q this weekend. He didn’t have a great race a Vegas last month. He started P6 and started fading almost immediately as better drivers moved up through the field. He was later caught up in an early wreck and only lasted 16 laps and finished outside the top 30. If Holmes starts between 15th-25th he’s viable for Tournaments. If he starts outside the top 25 we can consider him for Cash games too. He fared much better on intermediate tracks a year ago in a small sample size where he was top ten at Vegas, while also finishing 15th at Texas, and 17th at Kansas-2.
Jack Wood ($7,100)
The price tag is rising on Wood and I’m still not entirely sure what we get out of him. My issue with this race for DFS is that DraftKings is very aggressive in their pricing on several drivers, most notably on Nick Sanchez. But even the Gray Brothers have arguably a similar ceiling compared to Wood in Tournaments so I’ll take the discount on Wood who is easily in the best equipment. So far we’ve seen Wood run a high variance superspeedway race, and a high variance road course. Now we have a relatively low-variance intermediate, but with the lack of full-time pit crews that could add a little more chaos. Speed will be there for Wood, but let’s see if he can manage to run a clean race.
Hailie Deegan ($6,800)
Deegan is coming off a race last weekend where she drove like a maniac, and I don’t mean that in a good way. She did not make any friends with how much contact she made and that does have me a little concerned she could get dumped this week. But if there is one type of track I will consider playing Deegan at, it’s going to be an intermediate like Texas. In two races at Texas she’s finished 17th and 24th, but she started in the top 15 for both races so she wasn’t on our DFS radar anyway. In four races at Kansas she has three finishes in the top 17 and she has another top 15 finish at Charlotte. Our opinion of her in DFS could change based on where she qualifies. But we know the equipment is good and this is a track type she’s probably more comfortable on so let’s at least reserve judgment until we know where she starts.
Tyler Hill ($6,400)
So prior to the entry list coming out earlier in the week, I assumed (like an idiot) Timmy Hill would be running this race and didn’t realize until just before publishing that it was Tyler. And I’m still fine playing him today. Tyler has run Texas three times with a pair of top 20’s and more importantly he gained at least five spots of PD in each race. Now this will be his first race of 2023 so there may be a little rust. But Texas isn’t exactly a super technical track so I’m fine getting some exposure here. (And here is the initial section on Timmy Hill, if that makes you feel any better about playing Tyler Hill) It’s never fun going back to the well with the same drivers every week. However, we typically see the same names racing each week and Hill has finished top 25 in each race this year. Assuming he qualifies outside the top 25, he’s a fine play. If he starts outside the top 30, he’s Cash game eligible. If he’s closer to the top 25, I’d prefer him just in Tournaments. He finished 22nd at Vegas last month and he finished 18th, 20th, 21st, and 19th at Vegas, Texas, Charlotte, and Kansas-2 respectively last year. He’s on a small team and the modified pit stops might help him hold his position so long as he doesn’t wreck this week. There’s clearly top 20 upside this weekend and if he can get some PD at this price tag he’ll once again prove to be a safe DFS play.
Potential Value Plays
I’m going to add a few names down here, but will provide updates once we know the starting order and see the practice notes. But when considering the value options for the Truck and Xfinity Series, without practice and qualifying, I’m mostly looking at equipment and track history. Lawless Alan and Chad Chastain get the nod for equipment since they drive for Niece Motorsports. Alan has actually managed a pair of top 20’s so far this year, but he does tend to qualify in the top 25. Ryan Vargas is worth considering but he’s more expensive than Jack Wood and in far worse equipment. But the guy is still a good driver, but just finds himself in awful equipment. Matt Mills is someone to keep in mind as he started P35 at Vegas last month and finished 26th. But again, his equipment may not even finish the race so it’s a miracle if it does. I’ll upgrade and downgrade some value plays in the Discord channel prior to Saturday’s action but these are the drivers I’m looking at early on as paydown options.
SpeedyCash.com 250 Core Plays
The NASCAR DFS Core Plays for Saturday’s Truck Series race in Texas will be posted in the NASCAR DFS Discord channel about one hour before the race.