NASCAR DFS Playbook Road America 180: Top DraftKings Picks

The NASCAR Xfinity Series makes its annual trip to Elkhart Lake, Wisconsin for some road course racing at Road America! The NASCAR Cup Series cut its brief two-year stint at this course short to instead incorporate the Chicago Street Course into its 2023 schedule. But we still get the Xfinity Series making a trip and that means targeting some road course ringers. With seven races to go in the Xfinity Series regular season, the window of secure a playoff spot is closing fast! Seven drivers have already won their way into the playoffs while a handful of drivers seem locked in based on points. This weekend could prove difficult for full-time Xfinity Series drivers to get a win, and we’ll explain why shortly. But here is this week’s NASCAR DFS preview for the Road America 180!

Road America is a massive road course. It measures over four miles in length, which is longer than even COTA, and it features 14 turns. I do think we can still compare it to COTA although it’s not as technical as the track in Austin, Texas. Road America is probably closer to the Roval or Watkins Glen, but that’s just my opinion. You can generate fast speeds at this track because of the long stretches and there aren’t too many tight turns.

Saturday afternoon’s race is slated for 45 laps broken into 22-12-11 segments for the stages. Stage one is so long simply because they will have a competition caution after ten laps so teams can fuel up and change tires. That’s another factor to keep in mind. We will not have live pit stops because the full-time pit crews will be at Richmond for the Craftsman Truck Series and NASCAR Cup Series. So this basically eliminates passing other cars on pit road through fast stops or strategies. This becomes just a pure race where the road course experts should be the class of the field. Road America used to have a pretty old surface but it was repaved within the last year so we shouldn’t see as much tire fall off. Again, another strategizing aspect that’s stripped away from us.

45 total laps for this race means we have about 30 dominator points to target at most. So we don’t need to prioritize them. If you do register them and that driver also wins, then that’s gravy baby. Position differential and overall finishing position are the name of the game. But cars starting in the back need to run almost a perfect race since they can’t gain too much ground on pit road and strategizing. Fortunately, we had practice and qualifying on Friday afternoon so we know which cars showed up with speed.

As such, Practice and qualifying were eventful to say the least. We have a larger driver pool for this race. The repave and “the kink” proved difficult for these drivers as it seemed like most of the field was having issues. Brandon Jones, Sheldon Creed, Ryan Sieg, Kyle Weatherman, Jeremy Clements, and Katherine Legge were just a few drivers to have issues in practice so it’s entirely possible we see a messy race later today. And that’s unfortunate because this series is already difficult as it is to predict.

Road America 180 Practice Notes

NASCAR DFS Driver Pool

A.J. Allmendinger ($10,600; Starting P1)

The price tag is high, especially for a road course. But we know he’s easily the best road course driver in the field. He’s won plenty of times on road courses in this series. In five races in the Xfinity Series at Road America, he has a win (from ten years ago) and has led at least nine laps in four races. Now that doesn’t equate to much in DFS. I’m mostly mentioning it to emphasize how he regularly runs up front which correlates to win equity. He started P38 here last year and finished sixth, was fourth in 2021, and the runner-up in 2020. It’s interesting that he’s running this race while he’s in the hunt for a playoff spot in the Cup Series and won’t be in Richmond for practice and qualifying. I’ve shared my thoughts on this in Discord, but I believe he’s doing this because he prefers running Xfinity over Cup. He has a better chance to win each week and the Kaulig cars compete better in Xfinity than in the Cup Series. He has plenty of win equity and that’s what you’re paying for. Any dominator points are simply a bonus, but they should be easy to come by since he’s on the pole.

Cole Custer ($10,200; Starting P2)

If you’re pivoting off Allmendinger then you’re likely playing Cole Custer. It’s highly unlikely that Dinger and Custer appear in the optimal lineup together, but they are probably the two most likely drivers to finish in the top three and lead most of the laps. But laps led don’t matter too much here this weekend. Custer has been very good on road courses this year. He won at Portland and was declared the winner of the Chicago Street Course even though it was called before it was an official race. He even finished sixth at Sonoma after starting P26. He has back-to-back finishes outside the top 20 coming into Road America so this is a good opportunity for him to right the ship. If you want to pivot to Sheldon Creed ($10,000; Starting P12) you most certainly can. I have a few shares, but he hasn’t given us much reason to feel confident about what he can do though.

Parker Kligerman ($9,400; Starting P17)

I never feel great about playing him because he could easily blow up in our face. But he is one of the better road course drivers in the series even if the results don’t reflect that. This year he’s finished 31^st at COTA, 14^th at Portland, 5^th at Sonoma, and 9^th at Chicago although that race doesn’t really count because it didn’t even meet NASCAR’s standards for an actual race. Kligerman is basically racing for points and a win, but probably more points. He’s 26 points behind the last spot for the playoffs so he really needs a strong showing which means moving up and holding that position through the first two stages, and finishing high as well.

Chandler Smith ($9,200; Starting P16)

My concern with Smith for Saturday’s race is that he qualified right around where he was running in practice. But he still has the luxury of sharing notes with A.J. Allmendinger as his teammate and Smith presents PD for us DFS degenerates. The best part is that exposure might be suppressed a little bit simply because there are cheaper drivers starting further back. He’s done okay on road courses in 2023 with three top 15 finishes. No need to go here in Cash games, but he’s live for a top five in Tournaments. Josh Berry ($9,100; Starting P13) is the direct pivot off Smith for $100 less and may have less rostership. Berry finished third in his debut at Road America last year.

Sammy Smith ($8,900; Starting P10)

Smith ran this race a year ago for Joe Gibbs Racing. He finished outside the top 20 because of an engine issue but bounced back later in the summer by finishing third at Watkins Glen. He grabbed a top ten at Sonoma last month and if you buy into the narrative that there’s a littlecorrelation between road courses and short, flat tracks then that should only improve Smith’s standing in your personal rankings. Smith won Phoenix, was second at Martinsville, and he was fifth at New Hampshire. Not the greatest comparisons but it does put his upside on display. Connor Mosack is also in a JGR ride this weekend, but he’s $8,600 and starting P7. I’ll easily pay up for Sammy Smith for just $300 more.

Daniel Hemric ($8,400; Starting P32)

Hemric started to believe that he was having an engine issue toward the end of practice, so he didn’t post a qualifying lap on Friday. Obviously, he’s not the best road course racer on his team but hopefully he picked A.J. Allmendinger’s brain following practice for some tips. He’s been running really well lately with five straight finishes of eighth or better and he finished sixth at COTA and 13^th at Sonoma earlier in the year. In two of his last four races at Road American he’s finished second and third. But in the other two races in that sample size, he had mechanical issues and finished 29^th and 35^th. Hopefully they caught the mechanical issue early and he can move his way up for a top ten, which is a pretty reasonable expectation. 

Riley Herbst ($8,100; Starting P4)

I’m not sure what to make of Herbst because if there’s one person that the lack of live pit stops could hurt, it might be him. He has back-to-back finishes of seventh at this track. But last year he started third and fell back to seventh. The year before he started P34 and worked his way into the top ten. But those last two races here had the luxury of full-time pit crews so teams could strategize more. But I love the price tag for a driver that can finish well and he has momentum after finishing top five last weekend at Pocono. He’s only a Tournament play as you hope you can just finish in the top five. The good news is that he looked fast in practice and qualifying.

Brandon Jones ($8,000; Starting P33)

Jones wrecked early in Xfinity’s practice session on Friday with heavy damage to the rear. I haven’t heard whether or not he’ll go to a backup car (although that’s my assumption) or if they’ll just make repairs, but he’ll have a ton of position differential to offer either way. I know he’s normally a high variance driver, but he only needs to finish 18^th for 5X value. A top ten would be 7X value so ownership will be high because of the floor and ceiling here. The concern is obviously he only got about four minutes of practice in so he still doesn’t know what to expect and will have to rely on the notes from his teammates.

Brett Moffitt ($7,700; Starting P15)

Moffitt comes in with a ton of momentum for this weekend’s race at Road America. He has seven straight finishes in the top 15 and in six of those races he finished in the top 12, including a pair of 12^th-place finishes at Portland and Sonoma. He flashed upside last year on road courses with a top ten at COTA and top 20 finishes at Portland and Indy Road Course. He will likely be racing for points. He’s 49 points behind Riley Herbst for the last playoff spot. That’s a sizable gap but with seven races left I feel like he’s going for points this weekend then will re-assess over the next few races. Moffitt did get off track in practice but saved the car and managed to still grab a good qualifying spot. Kaz Grala ($7,800; Starting P9) is an okay pivot. He has road course experience and seemed very excited about his car and he laid down a great qualifying effort. But we’ll need the chalky PD plays to bust in order for Grala to be optimal. I’ll be light on him but he’s worth mentioning.

Alex Labbe ($7,300; Starting P37)

Labbe is better on road courses than anywhere else and luckily we have him starting toward the rear for this race. It should be noted that Stefan Parsons was in the car for practice (Labbe had travel issues) and the car was smoking on pit road after the engine decided to give way. It’s better to have that happen in practice than in the race. But because of the driver change, engine change, or whatever change you want to make note of, this team will start at the rear. In four races at Road America he’s never finished worse than 21^st and he also has a pair of top 15’s here as well. This is probably a downgrade in equipment compared to what he normally drives with DGM Racing, but the driver is good enough to potentially grab a top 20.

Jeremy Clements ($7,200; Starting P31)

Clements is one of a handful drivers to have some difficulty navigating the track. I believe it was during his qualifying effort he got off track and sustained some damage. So he’s one of the few low $7K drivers that is presented as chalk today. He does have a win at Road America from six years ago but also has three other top ten finishes as well. On road courses this year he’s finished 15^th at COTA, 22^nd at Portland, and 17^th at Sonoma. He normally qualifies much better but that changed this week since he got off track and had to fix damage. But he has top 15 upside if he stays clean.

Ryan Sieg ($7,000; Starting P34)

I can’t tell if Sieg likes or hates road courses. Sieg has three finishes of 11^th or better in his last four races at Road America. But the repave threw him for a loop as he sustained some damage in a wreck during practice on Friday. He easily hits value with a top 20 finish but we also know he has enough experience to provide an even better result.

Josh Bilicki ($6,600; Starting P11)

Absolutely nobody will be playing Bilicki on Saturday. If I’m being honest, I didn’t see the point in initially writing him or Josh Williams ($6,100; Starting P18) because there are just easier PD plays to target. But truthfully, we do need to get different with our builds this afternoon and Bilicki does prefer road courses over other track types. Moreover, he’s a Wisconsin native (lives 45 minutes from this track) and had top ten speed in practice. DGM Racing usually provides a good setup for these courses and that looks to be the case again. He’ll be a low-owned Tournament option that is likely optimal if he can finish eighth or better. But there’s still the very real possibility that he goes backward.

Kyle Weatherman ($6,500; Starting P38)

He starts dead last. He can’t get you negative points and we know the driver is better than the equipment. But the driver can only carry this ride so far and he was one of the handful of drivers to have issues in practice and qualifying. The good news is that there could be enough chaos to elevate his score in DFS. But he could also be involved in that chaos. I’d say if we were guaranteed no wrecks and everyone ran a clean race, he might finish 25^th which would be 30 fantasy points and not quite paying off the price tag. But he offers a good floor for Cash games, but I may try to focus on two of the popular $7K drivers over Weatherman in Tournaments.

Joe Graf Jr. ($5,900; Starting P35)

The beauty of Saturday’s race is that you probably won’t need to dip this low into the driver pool. The way qualifying shook out, you can squeeze the PD plays that are more expensive into your build without having to dip into this range. I’ll also note that he’s not a very good road racer. He has plenty of finishes the last couple years outside the top 30. But there’s PD and he’s in the same equipment as Ryan and Kyle Sieg.

Patrick Emerling ($4,900; Starting P29)

The equipment is not very good, I’ll admit that. But Emerling is fairly stable if you look at his results this season. He started P29 and finished 20^th at Portland, after finishing 19^th in the Portland race in 2022 that was haunted by poor weather. In five of his last seven races this season he’s gained at least nine spots of PD. At this price tag, his 24.7 fantasy points per race certainly stand out and I don’t hate punting with Emerling if you need a driver under $5,000 but that might be a rare case.

NASCAR DFS Core Plays