What a week it was to kick off the 2022 season. Last week’s Xfinity Series race was certainly on the more chaotic side and I was glad I withdrew my Cash Game reservations leading up to lock and only played five GPP lineups. Was it profitable? Not one bit, but I tried to spread enough information in the Discord and in the Example Lineups to get my personal feelings across that it wasn’t a great Cash Game slate with so much chalk that ultimately busted.

But let’s turn our attention to Auto Club this week. It’s essentially a one-day show at Xfinity so once again I’ll do my best to provide updates in RED following practice and qualifying, but here’s the schedule for Xfinity this week:

  • 12:00pm ET – Practice
  • 12:30pm ET – Qualifying
  • Roughly 5:00pm ET – Green Flag

This race will be 300 miles (150 laps) around Auto Club Speedway’s two-mile, low-banked, D-shaped oval. As it stands this will be the last time NASCAR runs Auto Club in its current state. It looks like the plans to transition it to a short track over the next year are still in place, the only person who seems to think otherwise is Jim Utter. But who knows, maybe he’s right and I’m wrong.

Here’s the difficulty in gauging this week’s field: they haven’t raced here in two years and also it’s a race we’ve seen a few Cup Series drivers run as well. Joey Logano won this race in 2018 and Austin Dillon finished fourth in that same race. Kyle Busch came in second at this race in 2019 and honestly a lot of Xfinity drivers from a few years ago are now in the Cup Series: Austin Cindric, Cole Custer (who is running this week at least), Tyler Reddick, Christopher Bell, Harrison Burton, Justin Haley, Ross Chastain, Chase Briscoe, etc. So truthfully, it’s tough to gauge who is good here. But we can stick to the tried and true methods of who runs well at similar high tire wear tracks (Miami-Homestead, Atlanta, Darlington), target good PD plays, and also just put our faith in the best drivers in the best equipment. As always, I’ll be in the NASCAR DFS Discord leading up to lineup lock for Saturday’s action!

Practice Results

Driver Pool

Noah Gragson ($10,900) – Gragson is a very solid candidate for dominator points this week. He’s always been a good driver, but the concerns have always been with his maturity. I think the struggles from the early portion of last season really helped him develop mentally. Pair that with the fact he’s a talented driver and we could be looking at his best season to date. Let’s talk his resume on high tire wear tracks. Prior to last season he had three straight top five finishes at Miami-Homestead with plenty of dominator points mixed in. He was cruising to a win last year at Miami before a late wreck with David Starr ruined that dream. But he also has three straight top five finishes at Atlanta. So while he hasn’t finished top ten at Auto Club, I’m not really holding that with much weight. Since the COVID shutdown in 2020, I’m trusting him on this type of track. Update: Gragson qualified P6. He loved how his car felt in practice. It shapes up to be a solid play today.

A.J. Allmendinger ($10,500) – I’m quite fond of Allmendinger on Saturday. On a part-time schedule in 2020 he won at Atlanta, a track that used to incorporate high tire wear. He finished top five at Atlanta-1 in 2021 and finished 13th in Atlanta-2 last year but he did finish second in the first two stages. He led 45 laps in last year’s Miami race and finished third at Kansas which runs somewhat like Auto Club. Given the overall experience he has (especially at the Cup level), I’m willing to run him in plenty of lineups this weekend. Update: Dinger's on the pole for Saturday's race. He's probably preferred more for GPP's, but I won't laugh at you if you play him in Cash games.

Justin Allgaier ($10,100) - Allgaier was among one of the faster drivers in practice, but qualified P20 after he got too loose on his qualifying lap. He ran the single fastest lap in practice and had the third-best 10-lap average. He'll be chalky but he's viable in Cash and GPP's on Saturday.

Cole Custer ($9,800) – Despite running in the 07-car for SS Green Light Racing, let’s just assume this will be a SHR car. SS Green Light does have a partnership with SHR so we can assume the car should be “better than usual” equipment on Saturday. In his last race at the Xfinity level three years ago at Auto Club, Custer won the race and led 29 laps. In three races at the Xfinity level here he’s finished top ten in the first two stages, but the lone negative on his resume here was that he wrecked in 2017. But we’re getting a Cup-level driver in presumably decent equipment and there are five drivers more expensive than him. Update: Custer will be on the front row with Allmendinger. As expected, the car was fast in practice and qualifying. I may just go with exposure to him in GPP's. 

Brandon Jones ($9,300) – Brandon “GPP” Jones makes the Playbook because he could certainly go out and win the race or he could make contact late that drastically impacts his day. Jones was dominating the 2020 Auto Club race before late contact forced a flat and he finished outside the top 30. But he does have a pair of top tens here in five races. He’s also been runner-up at the last two Miami-Homestead races. But if you’ve followed Xfinity before you know how boom/bust he can be. Part of me does feel bad because I don’t want to write up all the big names and I chose Jones over some more reliable drivers, but I want to keep an eye on him and see how he looks in practice and qualifying. Update: Jones was fast in practice and qualifying. Still doesn't change the outlook. He's a solid GPP play.

Sheldon Creed ($8,500) – The RCR cars should be popular this week as they’re both underpriced. At the Truck level, Creed has won the last two Darlington races in dominating fashion and he has a decent history at Atlanta as well. The results at Kansas aren’t that great, but he has managed to collect dominator points in the Truck Series at the comparable tracks. If he offers some PD, then great. But even if he starts closer to the front, I am of the mindset that may push ownership down a little, which will catch my eye.

Riley Herbst ($8,300) – Let’s give the birthday boy a shoutout this week. Herbst turned 23 on Thursday and in his lone race at this track in 2020 he finished second. He’s also finished 9th, 10th, and 11th at Homestead. He hasn’t been awful at Atlanta with finishes of 6th, 17th, and 19th but when you’ve driven the equipment he has, you expect better results. Herbst had an unfortunate debut season with SHR, but did finish last season well and grabbed a top five last week at Daytona. Maybe the momentum and the birthday vibes carry him to a solid finish this week. Update: Herbst qualified P16. He's not a Cash game lock for me, but there's a nice path for him to hit value. He's still fine for Cash games.

Myatt Snider ($8,100) – Snider is an intriguing play to me this week. I think he’s a perfectly fine play in GPP’s. He would have to offer some PD in order for me to consider him a Cash Game play. Let’s give credit where it’s due, he won at Miami last year, a high tire wear track. He also finished 7th and 15th there in June 2020 as part of a Xfinity Series doubleheader. He also finished 11th in his lone race at Auto Club in 2020 and he finished 11th in Atlanta-1 last year with RCR. But there are concerns about the current equipment he’s in with Jordan Anderson Racing and he’s a week removed from one hell of a wreck at Daytona. I’d rather take a couple stabs at him in GPP’s, but not a ton of exposure. He’s proven reliable at high tire wear tracks previously, but we had far more faith in the equipment. Update: So I initially wrote up Snider on Thursday night, but it’s Friday night and Pockrass tweeted earlier that Snider’s left foot is still sore and he’ll use a carbon fiber plate in his shoe for Saturday’s race. Given that there are drivers priced below him I may just go light or avoid him altogether. I’m only keeping him in the Playbook since I spent the time to write him up anyway. Update: Snider qualified P31. I may mix him into some GPP's but given the injury he's dealing with I'll keep exposure light. Remember, this is a small team and he can't afford to wreck this car since they'll run the same ride next week in Vegas.

Brett Moffitt ($7,900) – We’re about to dive into some strong tire wear drivers coming in below the average price tag on DraftKings. Moffitt ran the 02-car back in 2020 at Auto Club and finished 14th after starting P29. This team made strides in 2021 so I’m curious to see how he does on Saturday. At Darlington he’s finished 8th and 11th but he also finished 33rd in the Fall of 2020 due to an oil leak. Last February at Homestead he finished 7th. He also finished 6th last July at Atlanta-2. Basically, as long as he runs clean, there’s a good chance he finishes in the top ten with top five upside. Now he has had a couple wrecks mixed in at these high tire wear tracks, but you should take comfort in the fact that when he finishes at these tracks, he usually does very well. Update: Moffitt's a great GPP play today. He wasn't incredibly fast in practice but he qualified P17 and that's a good starting spot for him to move up and get some PD for us.

Austin Hill ($7,800) – Hill has run here at the Xfinity level before. He finished 16th two years ago in Hattori Racing equipment, far worse than the RCR equipment he won in last week at Daytona. Now most of his career has been run in the Truck Series, where they don’t run a lot of high tire wear tracks. But he has run Atlanta plenty of times and was the runner-up the last two years at the Truck Series, plus he won at Kansas with multiple top five finishes. I do anticipate that Hill will be chalky following last week’s win and, truth be told, this is some of the best equipment in the Xfinity Series and it’s coming at a discount.

Anthony Alfredo ($7,300) - This is a risky play, but one that offers PD. It looked like he was dealing with some tire rub on his qualifying lap and he will have to start the race on these tires. But it's not the worst equipment and he's starting just inside the top 30.

Brandon Brown ($7,200) - Brown is a late addition to the Playbook after he qualified P30 but showcased top 20 practice speed. I will note, he has been vocal that they need to take care of this car today because they'll be running it next week. He's part of a small, one-car, family-owned team so they don't have the luxury or freedom to wreck this car. But he should still improve on his starting position. If he can finish 18th or so then he's getting value for us. You can also take into account that he wasn't great last year on high tire wear tracks. 

Ryan Sieg ($7,000) – I can’t begin to explain the irony of calling Sieg a solid tire wear driver given the gambles we’ve seen him take on old tires, but I digress. At Auto Club in 2019 and 2020 he finished 11th and 4th. In four races at Darlington since 2020 he’s finished 7th, 3rd, 9th, and 11th. The results at Homestead aren’t as flashy nor as consistent, but he finished 8th there a year ago. And finally in the two Atlanta races in 2021 he finished 12th and 10th. So I guess the important thing to look at is the recent success he’s had at high tire wear tracks. The same could be said for the next driver as well, but on paper Sieg is a solid play tomorrow especially if he offers PD, but I expect him to probably start around P15. Update: Qualified P14 which is what we expected. It's always hard to trust him for Cash games, but he's a perfectly fine GPP play.

Jeremy Clements ($6,900) – Clements wrecked out of Daytona last week, but he wasn’t alone. I’m going right back to the well for Auto Club. In his last three races at Auto Club he’s finished 9th, 14th, and 15th. While PD hasn’t been a luxury he’s offered, I won’t complain if he’s pulling off solid finishes. He grabbed a top ten at Atlanta last year and another at Homestead. And to pile on the solid finishes he grabbed a pair of top tens at both Darlington races in 2021. Now we have to ask ourselves this; is he figuring out how to properly position himself and manage tires at high tire wear tracks? Or was he the beneficiary of no practice and qualifying the last couple years? I’m inclined to believe his experience has given him an edge at these tracks and he could be one of the best value plays on the board. Update: Qualified a little too high at P10, but it will be a very low-owned GPP play. 

Tommy Joe Martins ($6,300) – Now a few of the drivers I just touched on, they have upside to finish in the top ten, maybe top 15. I don’t feel as optimistic about Tommy Joe. TJM is probably more likely to finish top 20 and if that’s the case he can be a fine play. But I really only want to play him if he’s starting outside the top 25 and offering PD. Fortunately, he has finished in the top 20 in his last two races at Auto Club in 2019 and 2020. The results at Atlanta last year were okay with a pair of top 20 finishes, but he did lose PD in those races. But he has done well at Homestead and he finished 15th in Darlington-1 last year but wrecked out of Darlington-2. So he’s not a lock right now. I’d say if he qualifies outside the top 25 he’s Cash/GPP viable. But if he starts roughly P18-P23 I’d probably just limit exposure to GPP’s. I still have concerns with this Alpha Prime Racing team. Update: TJM went out and qualified P27 so I am certainly interested in getting exposure. I'm a little more comfortable using him in Cash games, but he won't be a guy I try to force into my lineup. 

JJ Yeley ($5,600) – DraftKings may be pricing Yeley down because of the equipment… Or they might just not be paying attention? Not my chair, not my problem. But we saw Yeley priced up in the $7K-$8K  range last season. Is the 66-truck good? No, but I don’t care if he finishes multiple laps off the pace, if he qualifies outside the top 30 he can still pilot this ride to a top 25 with PD to boot. At this price tag, I don’t think he’ll need to do much to hold value. He just needs the car to finish the damn race. He has plenty of experience at high tire wear tracks. He finished 12th at Homestead last year, 22nd at Darlington but he gained 13 spots of PD in that race. It’s been a hot minute since he ran Auto Club, but we’re getting an experienced driver at a heavy discount. I’ll gladly play him in Cash games if he starts outside the top 30. Update: Yeley qualified P24 which is a little high. But he's cheap enough where he only needs 28 points for 5X value and I can get on board in Cash and GPP's. He basically just needs to finish in the top 20 and he'll be a good value play.

Drivers To Monitor In Practice/Qualifying: Ty Gibbs, Justin Allgaier, Daniel Hemric, Landon Cassill, and maybe Trevor Bayne but his price tag is awful. These drivers could get an upgrade if they show significant speed.

Value Options To Monitor: Ryan Vargas (this is basically his home track and I’ll take a shot on him if he offers plenty of PD), Jade Buford (needs to really offer PD). Update: Adding a very late note since I'm landing on a ton of Ryan Vargas. He's cheaper than Yeley and offers more PD if you need to open up more salary. Buford is a GPP play that'll carry low ownership.

Example Lineups

DraftKings Cash Game Example Lineup

  1. Ty Gibbs
    1. A.J. Allmendinger (Pivot)
  2. Justin Allgaier
  3. Josh Berry
    1. Riley Herbst (Pivot)
  4. Brandon Brown
    1. Jeb Burton (Pivot)
  5. Tommy Joe Martins
  6. JJ Yeley

The Cash lineup with pivots is arguably more of a GPP build, but I still think we get a good floor if Allmendinger collects dominator points and finishes well. It also has $700 leftover if you want to make some changes.

DraftKings GPP Example Lineup

  1. A.J. Allmendinger
    1. Noah Gragson (Pivot)
  2. Justin Allgaier
  3. Riley Herbst
  4. Austin Hill
    1. Brett Moffitt (Pivot)
  5. Ryan Sieg
  6. Tommy Joe Martins
    1. JJ Yeley (Pivot)