NASCAR DFS Playbook Pennzoil 150: Top DraftKings Picks

The NASCAR Xfinity Series makes its fourth consecutive trip to Indianapolis Motor Speedway for some road course action. This is definitely one of the more polarizing tracks on the NASCAR schedule. Some people love it. Some people hate it and wish NASCAR would go back to the quad oval. Personally, I wouldn’t hate either. I love the chaos that we’ve seen in these races the last couple years. It seems odd but it feels like there’s a Daytona/Talladega vibe to this road course. Just look at last year when three rookies finished in the top four for the Cup Series race. Bubba Wallace even finished fifth as the top Toyota and he hates road courses. So whether they keep with the road course or go back to the oval in a year or two, I’m excited for this weekend’s action as we look to dominate our NASCAR DFS contests. Let’s dig into the drivers and strategies for Saturday’s Pennzoil 150 at the Brickyard.

Indianapolis Motor Speedway is a MASSIVE racing complex. I’ve never been, but I hope to visit one day. It looks amazing on television and nestled within the grounds is a 2.439-mile road course. This layout features 14 turns with almost no elevation change. It’s a pretty flat track and could be considered a “Roval” since it incorporates parts of the quad oval.

The NASCAR DFS strategy for the Xfinity and Cup Series is fairly simple and watered down. We only have 62 laps for this race, the fewest of any race this weekend. At most we have 43.4 dominator points up for grabs if every single lap is run under green. We know that just won’t happen. With cautions, it’s just impossible for this to happen. In each of the last three races there have been between 11 and 15 caution laps run. So realistically we are probably looking more at 35-39 dominator points for Saturday’s race. Not a whole lot. So while it makes sense to target dominator points if a road course specialist lands on the pole, we ultimately want drivers that finish well and get some PD. 

Practice Notes

So I'm adding the practice notes but don't put a bunch of stock in them. The track was wet and they practiced and qualified on rain tires. They'll run this afternoon's race on slicks.

NASCAR DFS Driver Pool

A.J. Allmendinger ($10,800)

He was a bit of a disaster at Road America two weeks ago. He skipped Cup practice in Richmond to go run a road course in Wisconsin. The car looked solid in practice and even won the pole. But he eventually got run down and that team had issues and concerns with power all day. He was a bit of a dud on that road course. Yes, it can even happen to A.J. Allmendinger. But I won’t let that deter me from rostering him, even if he wins the pole once again. He finished fourth here in 2020 after starting P30, then was the runner-up in 2021 after starting on the pole, but he bounced back and flat out dominated this race a year ago in a winning effort. He even won the Cup Series race in 2021 at this track. He’s easily the best road ringer in the series and the price tag isn’t all that prohibitive. I think there’s extra motivation for him following what happened at Road America two weeks ago. Update: He's on the pole. Shocking, right?

Ty Gibbs ($10,300)

Gibbs was the second-fastest car to Allmendinger. I probably wouldn't play them together in the same build unless you're doing 20+ lineups and have no problem being very contrarian. Keep in mind, Gibbs hasn't had the best luck here in his previous two races.

Justin Allgaier ($9,800)

I’m temporarily skipping over Ty Gibbs because he just hasn’t performed well in two races at Indy during his time in the Xfinity Series. But I’m likely to add him to the driver pool following practice and qualifying. I will acknowledge Cole Custer because he’s been outstanding on road courses this year. Custer won Portland and was credited with a win at Chicago, but even though that race was shortened due to weather he still ran up front and had a great car. He did wreck at Road America, but he was one of the two cars that absolutely blew A.J. Allmendinger out of the water. The other was Justin Allgaier, who has so much momentum coming into this race. Allgaier finds a way to lead laps almost every week but he just hasn’t had the finishes of late. He was close to winning Road America before a late spin forced him to finish 18^th. But still, he led 42 laps on a road course. This is a great price tag for a driver with some win equity who could easily collect a few dominator points and finish top three. He finished third here last year and hasn’t been worse than 11^th in three races here. Update: Not a great qualifying effort but that doesn't worry me. He offers some PD and he technically is the only driver that has an idea how his car will run on slicks. The entire field had to practice and qualify on rain tires but he got about a minute of track time with slicks so he might know something other drivers don't. Either way, the track will be dry later today and the playing field will be level.

Austin Hill ($9,500)

People will flock to Creed because he’s priced way down compared to where he was at previously for the last handful of road courses. But Austin Hill has quietly been exceptional this year on these tracks. He didn’t have a great showing at COTA but he’s bounced back finishing fifth at Portland, eighth at Sonoma, fifth at Chicago, and then third at Road America. Overall he’s looked very comfortable on road courses and while everyone hypes up Creed’s potential on these tracks, it’s Hill that’s delivered the better results.

Ross Chastain ($9,300)

I actually don’t hate Chastain at this price tag. If he were over $10,000 then we’d be having a different discussion. But at $9,300 I can rally behind the play since he’s in a DGM car on a road course. There isn’t much win equity but I’m optimistic he can grab a top five and a little PD wouldn’t hurt. Ross finished sixth here in 2020 and fourth in this race a year ago. He’s not a road ringer but he does have a win at COTA in the Cup Series. Depending on where he qualifies there could be a path to 40+ fantasy points on DraftKings.

Sheldon Creed ($9,100)

This is a far more palatable price tag for Sheldon Creed. After he started on the pole and led 47 laps at Portland two months ago, his price tag shot up to $9,900 for Sonoma, then $10,200 for Chicago, and then $10,000 for Road America. Creed hasn’t finished in the top ten since Portland but I’m willing to play him in Tournaments at this price tag because there’s enough flexibility to spend elsewhere. And I do still think he’s a good road course driver. In general,  I think he’s talented. But he just doesn’t finish races well. He’s always caught up in some kind of nonsense that kills his day for DFS. One of these days he’ll hit and it’ll be big for us. And on a road course I’m only looking for 40-45 points per driver and Creed certainly can get there with a good finish. But it’s the lack of consistent finishes that will keep me from recommending him in cash games.

Parker Kligerman ($9,000)

Kligerman came oh so close to getting a win at Road America a couple weeks ago, ultimately finishing second to Sam Mayer, who scored his first Xfinity Series win. But Kligerman has run very well on road courses this year. To go along with his second place finish he finished ninth at the shortened Chicago street race, he was fifth at Sonoma and despite finishing 14^th at Portland he did have 13 fastest laps with an average running position of eighth. There are always concerns with the equipment especially at a high variance track, but he is capable of winning as a dark horse.

Josh Berry ($8,600)

I was tempted to put Sammy Smith in the Playbook but haven’t loved the form of late so I’ll lean Berry. Josh Berry’s result from last year is a bit misleading because he finished 14^th. But he had an average running position of seventh with a 99.7 driver rating and he even led five laps. He’s finished fourth at both Portland races, finished third and sixth in two races at Road America, and he was top ten at COTA earlier in the year. Overall, there’s some top five equity for a driver in great equipment. I do wonder if he might be a little burnt out having to run both Xfinity and the Cup Series so much this year, but in a race where he’s discounted and we only need a strong finish then I don’t think we need to fade him for potential fatigue.

Miguel Paludo ($8,300)

I don't love Paludo if i'm being honest. But he is brough in a few times each year by Jr. Motorsports specifically for these races. His results haven't always been great but we don't have many easy PD plays to consider for this slate and he does start outside the top 20 in strong equipment.

Riley Herbst ($8,100)

The perennial GPP darling right here. Herbst is high-upside, low floor. But he comes in with momentum having finish sixth, fifth, and fourth in his last three races. Road courses have been a mixed bag this year, but he was fifth at Road America and top ten at COTA. He blew an engine at Portland and then finished outside the top 20 at Chicago because the race was called before the halfway point due to weather and Herbst didn’t have great track position at the time. Any team running deeper in the field at that moment wasn’t of the mindset that NASCAR would even consider calling the race. He finished sixth here a year ago and can grab a finish in the top five or top ten… Or he could sink your lineup.

Daniel Hemric ($7,600)

I don’t love the play, but at the end of the day, the equipment is great and he does get to pick Allmendinger’s brain this weekend. Hemric really hasn’t been all that bad on road courses this year. He was sixth at COTA, 13^th at Sonoma, and 11^th at Road America. This $7,600 price tag is the second cheapest he’s been all year. There’s always variance when rostering Hemric but I think we can all agree that this is too cheap for him. I don’t really understand how or why Connor Mosack is more expensive than him. Like Creed, Hemric has a car that can finish top ten, but let’s see where he qualifies.

Sage Karam ($7,400)

Karam is a good road course driver. He was surprisingly in contention a couple weeks ago at Road America but he was in a Sam Hunt Racing car that day. I don't love the equipment for this race nor do I love the price tag. But he does offer PD so I can't rule him out completely given that he might be able to get the most ouf of this equipment. 

Brandon Jones ($7,200)

I know this is a road course and pricing gets a little warped, but what is this price tag? Jones has three straight top ten finishes coming into this race and this is $500 cheaper than his previously low at COTA when he was $7,700 but finished 11^th after starting P26. He then finished 13^th at Portland, 21^st at Sonoma (not great), and tenth at Road America. So I don’t really get what DraftKings is doing here. Has he been bad for Jr. Motorsports this year? Sure, but the equipment is too good to be priced this low. Miguel Paludo is $1,100 more expensive as a part-time driver in similar equipment. I don’t get it. Update: Going to be popular starting outside the top 20. But he may have just been struggling on a wet track on rain tires. Brett Moffitt is a great pivot if you aren't some leverage in this range.

Jeb Burton ($6,900)

Sometimes you need to throw in a play that doesn’t make much sense. Burton has been horrible in three career races at Indy’s road course. But the current form has been great as we approach the NASCAR Xfinity Series playoffs. Burton’s already locked in but it doesn’t hurt to round into form heading into the postseason. He’s finished 13^th or better in five straight races including a top 12 at Road America. But on road courses, in general, he’s a bit of a gamble so this is strictly a Tournament-only play. But this is the kind of track where anything can happen so I won’t rule him out entirely.

Preston Pardus ($6,800)

Kind of intrigued by Pardus. Had a decent qualifying lap and was in the top ten of qualifying with a few minutes until he was knocked out. Either way the car is sneaky good but there's very little information about it since it's registered in his name. I did see on Twitter it may have previously been owned by Alpha Prime? He did finish outside the top 30 at COTA and Portland but was 12th when they called the Chicago race due to weather. He does have some top ten and top 15 finishes on road courses the last few seasons. GPP-only play and I'd cap exposure at maybe 15%.

Jeremy Clements ($6,600)

It’s always good when I can write up Clements with confidence. He does have a win on his resume from Road America from like six years ago but he’s actually managed to move up and gain at least six spots of PD in each of the three races at Indy’s road course. He’s finished top 20 in all three races including top 15 finishes in 2020 and 2021. So far this year he’s grabbed top 20 finishes at COTA, Sonoma, and Chicago. Decent value play with Clements who has plenty of experience.

Alex Labbe ($6,400)

I normally love writing up Labbe on road courses but he is in Emerling-Gase equipment for Saturday’s race. In three races on the Indianapolis Grand Prix layout, he’s never finished worse than 13^th but that was with DGM. That team tends to do very well on road courses so I’m not as locked in as I normally would be with Labbe. But he is still a good road course driver and he’s cheap enough where we can fit him in our builds. The driver’s potential has 40-point upside in this race at just $6,400 on DraftKings.

Josh Bilicki ($6,000)

Bilicki was a feel-good story a few weeks back at Road America where he finished eighth on his home track. But he’s back on another road course for DGM Racing. DGM loves them some road courses and Bilicki likely won’t have the top ten upside he had at Road America, but he can possibly drive this ride to a top 20. Bilicki grabbed a top 20 at Sonoma earlier this summer and he grabbed a pair of top 20 finishes last year at Road America and Watkins Glen.

Joe Graf Jr. ($4,800)

Graf isn’t very good but he’s $4,800 and in RSS Racing equipment. This organization did get a win at Sonoma earlier this year, but they had Aric Almirola behind the wheel for that one. Graf won’t amaze you with his results but I’m assuming he posts a dreadful qualifying effort and offers PD. He gained five spots at COTA but still only finished 30^th. At Portland he gained ten spots and finished 23^rd. At Sonoma he gained seven spots to finish 31^st. And then at Road American he gained a dozen spots and finished 23^rd. I don’t think we’ll need to go down to this area, but the equipment is better than this price tag. Unfortunately, the driver is not. Update: Starts second-to-last. Not a great play but he's in position to maybe move up 7-10 spots and maybe get to 5X value. I don't mind mixing Andre Castro into some builds. Ownership should be very low on him and while Jesse Iwuji isn't a good driver we did see Kyle Weatherman drive that car pretty well last year.

NASCAR DFS Core Drivers