The Xfinity Series race is a very tough read today. The Truck Series Playbook is live and will have updates following practice. I’ve already touched on the new track configuration in that Playbook. New surface, new banking, new/wider front stretch. Friday’s practice sessions were postponed until this morning and qualifying was cancelled. A LOT of the top drivers are starting closer to the front so this is somewhat harder to read than the Truck Series.

As mentioned in the Truck Series Playbook, and the podcast, and numerous times in Discord, we just don’t know what to expect with the new track configuration and it’s even worse for the Cup Series as they run a brand new car. But for Xfinity we have a pretty good idea of who is good on superspeedway tracks, but also try to build your lineups with chaos in mind. Really differentiate your builds and spread exposure out if you’re playing multiple lineups. 

Practice Results

 

Driver Pool

Kaulig Racing – Might as well collectively mention this team. If this race does provide a superspeedway-like race with pack racing, then Kaulig is in play. A.J. Allmendinger, Daniel Hemric, and Landon Cassill all start inside the top ten and will work together on Saturday to produce a solid result for the team. Allmendinger was the only one with a solid day at Daytona, but we’ve seen this team rip off top finishes at superspeedways numerous times. I was light on Kaulig last week, but I’ll go back to the well on this track. For lineup construction, I wouldn’t go with more than two of them because you do need to afford yourself some PD.

Noah Gragson ($10,700; Starting P1) We are expecting to see a superspeedway-like race, but it’s no guarantee. Normally at Daytona or Talladega we would fade the pole. But we still don’t know what to expect. With that said, Gragson’s been the best driver in the field this year. He won last week at Phoenix, was runner-up at Vegas and Auto Club, and was third at Daytona. Does he likely go backward? Sure. But he’s been too damn good for me to completely fade today.

Justin Allgaier ($10,500; Starting P6) If there’s one person thrilled that qualifying is cancelled, it’s Allgaier. I don’t know what’s been going on with him but he hasn’t qualified well at all this year. With that being said, he’s been a great source of PD because of that. He’s returned at least 50 points in all four races this year and he’s been an easy Cash game lock to start the year. I don’t think that’s the case this week, but Allgaier has tested the XFIN and Cup Series packages at the new Atlanta configuration so if anyone has a slight inkling of what to expect, it might be him. I’m sure he gets another good run on Saturday, but we’ll see how practice unfolds.

Trevor Bayne ($9,900; Starting P5) I don’t know what to truly expect from today’s race regarding Bayne. However, when we’ve seen him run this year he’s been very fast and he’s collected dominator points. Bayne led 38 laps with 43 fastest laps last week and Phoenix and finished 4th. At Auto Club he led 24 laps with ten fastest laps and he finished third. Regardless of the track, he’s finding his way to the front. At this price you do need him to finish well and possibly collect some dominator points so I may leave exposure to just GPP’s.

Sam Mayer ($8,700; Starting P15) Mayer’s results haven’t been great. He has just one finish in the top 20 to start the season. But he’s been better than the results indicate. The car has had speed until some bad luck has hit. But he has PD and speed and he’s probably underpriced. He’ll return value if he finishes eighth or better.

Austin Hill ($8,500; Starting P14) I’m actually surprised he’s starting this high. Apparently, the win at Daytona a month ago holds a lot of weight in how they determine the starting order. He’s finished outside the top 15 the last three races so he has a lot to prove. But if we’re getting a superspeedway-like race then he’s worth exposure since 1. Anything can happen, and 2. He did win Daytona. Also, this is his home track and he had back-to-back runner-up finishes here in the Truck Series. I’m not trying to draw comparisons to previous Atlanta races, I’m trying to stress that he absolutely wants to win here. 

Riley Herbst ($8,300; Starting P24) Here we are, once again. Riley Herbst starting outside the top 20. Rarely does Chalk Herbst work out in anyone’s favor. Will I be playing him? Yes. This is an SHR car starting outside the top 20 and he’s priced in the mid-range. Do you need to play him in Cash Games? Not necessarily because there are cheaper options starting further back that could pay off and Herbst tends to shoot himself in the foot from time to time.

Anthony Alfredo ($8,100; Starting P27) Normally I wouldn’t recommend Alfredo at this price, but he is offering PD and if we’re looking at a level playing field then he’s going to be popular. He could be chalky so I won’t go too heavy in GPP’s. But if he runs clean then he’ll finish well. He had a great run at Daytona earlier this month after he started P16 and finished seventh.

Kyle Sieg ($6,600; Starting P31) I like what I’ve seen from Sieg so far. He’s had three great races and one bad result. But the equipment is decent and we’ve seen him move up plenty of spots already. The price is affordable and while he’s a risk in Cash games, he should be relatively popular in GPP’s, but I just don’t think he will be. Seems like a good amount of the industry and DFS players are afraid of committing to him, but I think he can get a top 20 today.

Tommy Joe Martins ($6,500; Starting P37) Chalk TJM can’t be a good thing, right? But this is different than when we avoided Chalk Graf a couple weeks ago. TJM is different. His car is better and overall, he is better. The results for this new Alpha Prime team have been so-so to start, but we’re getting TJM starting dead last and we know he has the ability to finish top 15, but top 20 is a good floor. And realistically, he only needs to finish 23rd for 5X value. If playing Cash, he’s going to be over 70% owned in that format, and rightfully so. For what it’s worth, I also really like Sage Karam who is $600 more and starting higher. Karam has had decent runs in Xfinity previously and is another great PD option.

Jade Buford ($6,300; Starting P30) We haven’t seen Buford make significant strides this year as expected, but he’s offering PD and it feels like he is a top 20 kind of driver in this series. He’s not consistent and the results haven’t been there early on, but he is better than the finishes indicate. If he stays clean he should finished 20th or better.

Other Value Options: So there are some value “punts” if you need to go this low. Kyle Weatherman is in play offering PD and he’s driving for DGM. They’ve done pretty well historically at superspeedway-style races. Ryan Vargas is a driver that has top 25 upside, but we just haven’t seen it the last few races. He starts outside the top 30 and could move up and gain a few spots. Josh Williams is in play and he cannot kill you too much with negative PD as he starts P36. The equipment is somewhat concerning, but this could be a day where it’s a more level playing field. Shane Lee is back in Emerling Gase equipment and was running pretty well the last time he raced, but I believe he wrecked and finished poorly. The jury is still out on this new team, but I haven’t hated what I’ve seen. Lastly, I wasn’t going to play Loris Hezemans at all, but he is riding in a third car for RSS Racing and he’s $4,900 starting P34. We played Hezemans last year at Pocono and sure, he was slow all day, but still moved up enough to get us 6X value.

Example Lineups

Example Lineups will be posted separately after practice.

 

 

Related Links

Don’t miss out on the Playbooks for today’s action as well as everything else we’re offering for this weekend’s action in Atlanta!