NASCAR DFS Playbook Drive for the Cure 250: Top DraftKings Picks

After a week off, the NASCAR Xfinity Series is back for the remaining five-race stretch for the 2023 playoffs. Saturday’s Drive for the Cure 250 will serve as the cutoff race as the field is trimmed from a dozen playoff drivers to just eight. Justin Allgaier and John Hunter Nemechek are the only two drivers currently locked into the next round of the playoffs. Drivers like Jeb Burton, Josh Berry, and Sam Mayer are not in the greatest playoff standing currently and likely need to win to move on to the next round while drivers like Daniel Hemric, Parker Kligerman, and Sheldon Creed can still get into the next round based on points. This weekend marks the final weekend of the season for some road course action so let’s strap in and see how to approach lineup construction for Saturday afternoon’s Xfinity Series race!

Saturday’s race has some significance to it. We’ll get a new Xfinity Series winner at the Roval for the first time since 2018. A.J. Allmendinger is not eligible to run this race and he has won the last four Xfinity Series races on the Roval. So this weekend does level the playing field for playoff drivers to win and move on. The Charlotte Motor Speedway road course AKA the Roval is a 2.28-mile road course that incorporates the infield road course but also the tri-oval with some chicanes added to the track. There are 17 turns and the track is probably closest to what we’ve seen on the Indy Road Course but we can also consider other courses like COTA, Sonoma, and Watkins Glen but without the heavy changes in elevation.

We have a pretty tight window for Saturday’s race. Practice starts around 10:00am ET with qualifying shortly after at 10:30am. We likely won’t know the qualifying order until about 11:30am ET and the race is scheduled to go green around 3:21pm ET. We only have 67 laps for this race divided into 20-20-27 lap segments. As is the case with road courses, the dominator points don’t matter as much. At most, unless there’s overtime, we’ll have 47 dominator points on the table. A more realistic expectation is 40-43 points when you account for cautions. Speaking of cautions, each of the last four races here have seen at least seven cautions for at least 13 laps. 

The last four polesitters have each led at least 15 laps, and believe it or not, but A.J. Allmendinger was only one of those polesitters. Now those laps led mean absolutely nothing if you don’t finish well. Each of the last three years, the polesitter has finished first or second so it stands to reason that winning the pole provides some security towards finishing well, but it’s not an automatic lock. Passing is manageable and as is the case the with road courses, we tend to prioritize finishing position and position differential since dominator points aren’t as readily available to us. But beware of those long, boring green flag runs because as the field becomes more spread out it will become more difficult to pass.

Practice Notes

NASCAR DFS Driver Pool

Updates in RED will be provided after practice and qualifying Saturday morning.

Cole Custer ($10,800)

I’m not completely off Allgaier or JHN this week. But they’re already locked into the next round. They both still have win equity but they don’t need a win as much as other drivers. And Cole Custer doesn’t even need a win either, but he’s been solid on road courses. It’s been a while since he ran the Roval in the Xfinity Series, but in 2018 and 2019 he finished seventh and eighth here with driver ratings of 118.5 and 108.5 with some dominator points mixed in too. He won Portland and Chicago while finishing top 10 at Sonoma, Indy, and Watkins Glen. He’s been one of the best road course drivers this year and I wouldn’t be surprised if he came away with the win here. Even in the Cup Series, Custer grabbed a pair of top 20 finishes at this track including a top 10 in 2020. That may not sound like much but considering the level of competition at Cup, I’d take it as a good sign. Update: Custer starts P7 which is a good start. He has win equity and some PD. If you can afford him, Allgaier is in play as well starting P2 but his teammate does need a win to advance and Allgaier could be following team orders and allow Mayer to get a win if they two are at the front late in the race.

Sam Mayer ($10,700)

Mayer is priced up but I’m okay eating the salary because he likely needs a win to move on to the next round. The playoffs have been tough on Mayer. He’s wrecked in each of the last three races so the levels of desperation are quite high. Fortunately for him, he gets a road course this weekend and he claimed his first two career wins in the Xfinity Series this past summer at Road America and Watkins Glen. So this is at least shaping up to give him a chance. But the last three races have really put him in a hole so he will definitely be racing for the win on Saturday. He’s previously finished 10^th and 11^th at this track. Update: Mayer landed the pole for Saturday's race. We've seen him win twice on road courses this year and can do it again this week. He does need a win to move on.

John Hunter Nemechek ($10,300)

JHN didn't post a qualifying lap so he'll start at the back of the field. The PD alone makes him a lock for Cash games and so long as he avoids carnage he should return value with a top 12 finish.

Sheldon Creed ($9,800)

Creed surprisingly doesn’t need a win on Saturday to move on as he’s in good shape in the playoff standings, but he is still chasing that elusive first win in the Xfinity Series. In his Roval debut last year, he started P4 but finished 16^th although he did run up front for 18 laps and had a 114.1 driver rating. He’s still a high variance driver but over his last seven races he’s finished eighth or better six times. Earlier this season he led 16 laps at COTA and grabbed a top 10 finish, then led 47 laps at Portland from the pole and finished seventh, plus he was the runner-up at Watkins Glen. I can’t believe I’m going to put myself through this misery yet again, but I’ll likely land on a few shares of Sheldon Creed for this race.

Jordan Taylor ($9,500)

Taylor comes back after starting P6 and finished 27^th at Portland over four months ago. Obviously, this is a redemption spot for him but he’ll be in pretty good equipment for Kaulig Racing. Taylor comes from a SportsCar background so he obviously knows how to race on this type of track. This is a premium price tag but one that may have some leverage if starting in the top 10. He likely won’t be a Cash game play but the car will be fast and he should thrive on this type of track.

Sammy Smith ($9,300)

I don't have a great read on Smith aside from the fact that he starts P22 so there's PD here. He's not a terrible play so long as he finishes in the top 10 but he's had his ups and downs this year.

Daniel Hemric ($8,700)

Hemric doesn’t necessarily need a win to move on as he has a good chance of moving on via points in the standings. He grabbed back-to-back third place finishes at this track in 2020 and 2021 driving for JRM and JGR. Last year, in his first season with Kaulig Racing, he started P3 and finished 17^th. But I still think this is a track he enjoys racing at. He’s been a little hit-or-miss on road courses this year, but he did finish top 12 at tracks like COTA, Chicago (Street Course), and Road America. He wrecked at Texas two weeks ago so he’ll need to get some crucial points in the first two stages. Update: Starts P4 which is a bit high. Track history is on his side but he's mostly a Tournament-only play.

Brandon Jones ($8,500)

It was announced within the last couple weeks that Jones would return to the 9-car for JRM and that’s good news because he hasn’t had a very good season. But he does have financial backing and sometimes in this sport, that’s all you need really. Jones never had great success on Indy’s Road Course, but at the Roval he’s done quite well. He’s finished top 10 in each of the last three races including a top five finish in 2021. Perhaps the best comparison to the Roval is the Daytona Road Course, which was run twice in 2020 and 2021. Jones finished second and fourth in those two races when he was with Joe Gibbs Racing. He’s had some top 12 runs this year on road courses and at $8,500 he’s really not a terrible option because this price tag is manageable for a driver with top 10 equity.

Chandler Smith ($8,200)

Smith is priced down and offers a little PD starting P17. He might have top 10 upside and the pricing is reasonable. I'll be mixing him in for Tournament builds.

Myatt Snider ($7,800)

Snider has run two races in the 19-car for JGR this year and finished fifth at Daytona to start the year and then finished sixth at Portland over the summer. So it’s been over four months since he’s raced but this is a track he’s had success at. From 2020-2022 he grabbed three top 15 finishes at the Roval gaining at least five spots of PD in each race. On top of everything though, this is a JGR car that’s priced under $8,000. We can safely assume he’ll be popular based on the equipment and there is some sneaky win equity here. Update: Looks like he's starting P31 and in great equipment. Cash game lock alongside JHN.

Kaz Grala ($7,500)

Casual DFS players will write Grala off because of his last two results here. He had a suspension issue in 2020 and finished 31^st. Then last year he wrecked and finished 35^th. But back in 2018 he did grab a top 10 finish here. He has five top 20 finishes on road courses this year including top 10 finishes at Chicago, Road America, and Indy Road Course. He’s capable of getting the most out of this Sam Hunt Racing equipment and I’m willing to say he could get another top 10 on a road course on Saturday.

Jeb Burton ($7,100)

Burton is one of three drivers that knows he needs to win this race to move on to the next round. He’s very affordable for this race and you know he’ll be strategizing and driving hard for the win. Two years ago with Kaulig Racing, he finished 13^th here and last year with Our Motorsports he finished 18^th. He didn’t get off to a great start on road courses this year but between Road America, Indy, and Watkins Glen he did finish 12^th, 16^th, and 10^th respectively. He won’t win this race, but that won’t stop him from trying. Update: Decent starting spot for Burton at P19. Might have a top 10 in him today but we have to like that he'll be going for it all.

Alex Labbe ($7,000)

It’s pretty easy to include Labbe in this Playbook although I’m surprised he’s priced in the low $7K range on DraftKings. In five races with DGM Racing at the Roval, he’s never finished worse than 14^th and in three of his last four races here he’s finished sixth or better. So he’ll likely be popular based on the track history, but we also know he’s a solid road course driver as well. So far this year he’s grabbed top 15 finishes at COTA, Portland, and Indy Road Course but the Roval is where he’s really stepped up his game and broken slates. He won’t be a leverage play but still a nice GPP option to have on our radar. Update: Labbe was very fast in practice and starts P10. I don't trust him enough for Cash games but he's perfectly fine to play in Tournaments if he can finish top 10.

Jeremy Clements ($6,800)

Clements is a pretty decent road course driver. In five races at the Roval he’s never finished worse than 18^th. The downside is that a lot of his finishes have been right around where he starts. But that’s actually okay. At this price tag, if he starts in the top 15 we just need him to finish there as well and he has a shot at being optimal. Even during the two years NASCAR ran the Daytona Road Course, he grabbed a pair of top 10 finishes there. So far this year he has top 20 finishes at COTA, Sonoma, Chicago, and Indy. I’d like to get a little PD out of him but I’ll still be fine playing him as long as he doesn’t start inside the top 12.

Stefan Parsons ($5,800)

Exposure will be entirely dependent on where he starts but he has a pair of top 25 finishes at the Roval. For context, in 2021 he started P36 and finished 24^th. That’s pretty good in this price range. But last year he started P13 and finished 25^th. That’s no bueno. He did grab top 20 finishes at Darlington and Bristol last month so he isn’t completely hopeless despite the fact those don’t compare to the race this weekend. He does garner a little respect on road courses, but he’s always driven in sub-par equipment so we can only jump on him for this race if he starts outside the top 30, which is entirely possible.

Josh Williams ($4,800)

I know I’m probably an irrational Josh Williams stan at this point, but this is a very cheap price point for a driver on a team that typically nails the setup with their cars on road courses. Williams has raced here four times with DGM and he’s never started worse than P22. However, he’s only finished two races here. In 2019 he started and finished 20^th. In 2021 he started P17 and finished 11^th. So he’s largely going to be a GPP-only play for me. He should probably be $500 more so I’m not mad about the discount since he can easily get us 20+ fantasy points on DraftKings, possibly even 30+ if he finishes. The results at road courses this year have been a mixed bag so don’t cram him into every lineup for salary relief. Do spread exposure around if you find some other value drivers that you like.

NASCAR DFS Core Drivers