Last week both the NASCAR Cup and Xfinity Series delivered with a pair of hometown drivers, Austin Hill and Chase Elliott, scoring the wins on the re-configured Atlanta Motor Speedway. This week we’ll see both series head up the course to Loudon, New Hampshire to race for a giant lobster! It will be NASCAR’s lone trip to New England this year (no, Watkins Glen doesn’t qualify as part of New England) but we’ve seen the Xfinity Series race previously on comparable tracks like Phoenix, Richmond, Martinsville, and Nashville to an extent. Let’s dive into Saturday’s NASCAR DFS picks for the Crayon 200! I can’t believe they couldn’t come up with a better name…
200 laps are what we get on Saturday. That means we’ll likely have around 120-130 dominator points to work with. That’s the most we’ve seen in quite some time so let’s enjoy it because next week we have to endure fewer laps at an absolute snoozefest in Pocono. Either way, playing multiple dominators will be how I construct most of my lineups. The last two Xfinity races at New Hampshire have been dominated by one driver (Christopher Bell) in which he won in impressive fashion leading over 150 laps in each race. You can even go back to 2018 where Bell led about half the laps and still won. Bell isn’t running Saturday’s race so unfortunately, lineup construction isn’t as easy without him in the field.
But as mentioned in the opening paragraph, this is a very flat track. You could call it a short track since it’s just over a mile in length, but it’s incredibly flat at one-degree in the straights and about 2.7 degrees in the corners. So we can look at similar tracks to determine which teams should nail the setup and who can put us in victory lane by Saturday afternoon.
Right off the top, Joe Gibbs Racing and Jr. Motorsports will stand out. Ty Gibbs and Brandon Jones of JGR won Richmond and Martinsville earlier in the year while Noah Gragson and Justin Allgaier won Phoenix and Nashville. JGR in particular is notorious for setting their cars up for short, flat tracks so we can assume they’ll nail it with Gibbs, Jones, and Trevor Bayne in the 18-car.
Driver Pool
William Byron ($11,100; Starting P10) Byron should probably be priced up from here by at least $1,000 with over 100 dominator points available. This will be a Hendrick car with a Cup Series winner behind the wheel. Earlier this year in the Xfinity Series, Byron started P15 and finished second at Texas. He also won Martinsville at the Cup Series earlier in the year in very impressive fashion. Why he is only $11,100 is beyond me. You could easily make lineups with him as a lone dominator and feel good about them but don’t rule out a two-dominator approach with Willy B as well.
Ty Gibbs ($10,600; Starting p4) Hard to avoid Gibbs completely this week. The kid is just a winner. He has four wins this year and JGR excels on shorter, flat tracks as an organization. Christopher Bell dominated New Hampshire in his three races in this Series and now the torch (or lobster) could be passed on to Gibbs. On the comparable tracks this year he’s finished top eight at them all with 197 laps led at Martinsville and 114 laps led at Richmond in a winning effort. He’ll be hard to completely fade so do yourself a favor and build a couple lineups with him as a featured dominator.
Noah Gragson ($10,300; Starting P9) He’s only run here twice and finished 14th and tenth but we know there’s speed and win equity. I really wasn’t planning on writing him up in depth considering I feel better about Berry and Allgaier at this style of track, but Gragson did win Phoenix earlier in the year but he’s led at least 20 laps in eight races this season and he does have some PD on his side.
Justin Allgaier ($10,100; Starting P3) Allgaier has come close to winning New Hampshire on his last two occasions at this track, but he just couldn’t outrun Christopher Bell. Nobody could. Allgaier was the runner-up last year and finished third back in 2019. There was a stretch in March and April where Allgaier was qualifying and finishing rather poorly, but over his last seven races he has an average finish of 5.6 with wins at Darlington and Nashville. We know he’s in great equipment and he’s performed at an elite level in previous seasons on the comparable tracks including a sweep of the Richmond doubleheader back in 2020.
Josh Berry ($9,800; Starting P1) This a track that should play to Berry’s strengths since he’s a short track specialist. Remember, he won Martinsville last year on a part-time schedule and he was fourth at Nashville, and eighth at New Hampshire in the same year. Flash forward to this season and he was third at Phoenix and seventh at Richmond. He’s also coming in with some momentum with four top five finishes in his last five races. Would anyone be surprised if Berry showed up with speed on Saturday and ran away with this race? Now he is on the pole and was outside the top ten in practice speed, but if he gets out to a big lead and still finishes well he could be optimal. I don’t think we should sleep on Sam Mayer either. I know I preach this but he’s seemingly knocking on the door of his first XFIN win. I won’t write him up in depth but I will have him in 10-15% of my GPP builds. UPDATE: Berry will drop to the rear to fix damage sustained during yesterday's qualifying run. So that puts Daniel Hemric and Justin Allgaier on the front row to start today's race. It's a huge downgrade to Berry's value. This bumps up Allgaier, Gibbs, and Bayne a good bit to contend to dominator points early on.
Trevor Bayne ($9,500; Starting P6) It’s a very small sample size for Bane and sure, maybe this is a tough price to pay for him as well, but this is JGR equipment and this is a track type the organization expects to do well at. Bayne has three top five finishes in five races this year including finishing fourth at Phoenix and second at Nashville last month. He’s also shown the ability to run out front and collect dominator points. If that’s the case, and he finishes well, then he could be optimal. This isn’t a guy to be overly heavy on but worth getting exposure off the chalkier drivers priced above him.
Brandon Jones ($9,100; Starting P8) Jones doesn’t strike me as a driver that will carry a ton of ownership on Saturday. But he’s the cheapest driver for JGR and could come in with less than 12% ownership. He won Martinsville earlier this year and he was second at Phoenix. He doesn’t have the greatest resume at New Hampshire, but he does have a few top ten finishes. I wouldn’t exceed more than 20% ownership on Jones because he comes with plenty of variance and for that you should only play him in GPP/tournaments.
Riley Herbst ($8,500; Starting P13) Not a ton of win equity here but Herbst has been running consistently well this year. Portland was a mess and he didn’t finish well, but he’s rattled off three straight top ten finishes including 12 top tens in 17 races this year. He got into an accident at Phoenix but he’s finished in the top six at Martinsville, Richmond, and Nashville. Even dating back to last season he’s shown consistency on the shorter, more flat tracks so it’s not out of the realm of possibilities that he could pull out another top five finish. I’m not opposed to playing him even if he’s starting in the top ten but I would prefer a little PD to boot.
Ty Dillon ($7,800; Starting P17) Ty Dillon generated some headlines on Friday with the announcement that he won’t be returning to Petty GMS next season in the Cup Series. So maybe there’s some motivation on Saturday to put on a show. With that said, he’s in the 48-car for Big Machine Racing and the car flashed speed during Friday’s practice. He posted the seventh-fastest lap and the fourth-best ten-lap average and he qualified P17. The equipment, as always, is a bit of a concern but Tyler Reddick did get a win in this car at Texas. Dillon doesn’t have the same win equity but there’s top ten upside for him on Saturday.
Brandon Brown ($7,600; Starting P19) Brown isn’t exactly a slam dunk for DFS, but as of this writing (pre-qualifying) his resume on comparable tracks this year has been very good. He finished 13th at Phoenix, eighth at Richmond, and 11th at Nashville. In his two races at New Hampshire he’s finished 16th and 17th. That’s okay if he’s starting outside the top 20, but at least we’ve seen this year and can get a top 12 at this kind of track. I don’t think he’s worth this price tag, but DK got smart with their pricing this week and so I don’t mind playing him knowing that he’s posted at least 35 DK points in eight of 17 races this year.
Jeb Burton ($7,300; Starting P23) If it wasn’t for bad luck, Jeb would have no luck at all. Maybe he incites some of his own misfortunes, but his car is probably worth $7,300 but I’m of the mindset that he’s probably worth some more. If we’re discussing the four comparable tracks (Phoenix, Richmond, Martinsville, Nashville) well Burton has finished top 12 in two of those, while wrecking in the other two. He’s posted at least 32 points on DraftKings in 11 of 17 races this year and he finished 11th here a year ago, albeit in better equipment. He’s also finished in the top 20 in five straight races including three top 15’s in that span.
Derek Griffith ($7,000; Starting P20) Griffith could potentially be a popular option for Saturday’s race. He qualified P20 but recorded the ninth-fastest single lap in practice and he was also top 15 in ten-lap averages. We’ve seen John Hunter Nemechek finish fifth at Phoenix in this car while Jeffrey Earnhardt finished seventh at Nashville. But Griffith finished outside the top 20 at both Richmond and Martinsville. We know the car is good enough for a top ten, but is the driver? Jeremy Clements will be a popular pivot in this range that I certainly don’t hate. Clements has back-to-back top 15 finishes at New Hampshire and has done okay on flatter tracks in 2022.
Alex Labbe ($6,700; Starting P27) Labbe and Ryan Vargas kind of represent this “cut off” line of drivers we can kind of trust. Labbe starts pretty far back and it’s kind of deserved. He didn’t post the greatest practice speeds and he qualified outside the top 25. If we’re going off his 2022 resume, there’s clear top 20 upside. He finished 19th at Phoenix, 19th at Richmond, and 15th at Martinsville. He’s an okay play but I think you can also consider Ryan Vargas as a pivot. Vargas is not a safe option, but he’s posted 33+ points on DraftKings across his last three races. He’s not a driver that should be $6,400 but he’s starting far enough back where we can stomach the price tag.
C.J. McLaughlin ($6,200; Starting P33) This is a change of scenery for McLaughlin. He’s run four races this year but this is his first flat track after he ran Dayton (wrecked), Las Vegas (finished 24th), Texas (25th), and Charlotte (23rd). Those results may not stand out, but he did gain PD in those races and he’s starting pretty far back for Saturday’s race. He’s in arguably the same equipment as Ryan Sieg. This might be considered his home track since he’s from Massachusetts and he has experience here. His floor is okay if he finishes the race, but it would take a significant amount of chaos for him to be optimal in a GPP contest so I may prefer him just in Cash games. JJ Yeley is also in consideration, but he had some mechanical issues following practice and he didn’t post a qualifying time so he starts from the rear. The fact he can’t return negative points is nice, but there is always the chance they have to park the car early in the race.
David Starr ($5,600; Starting P31) Another driver that won’t break the slate, but he did finished 20th here a year ago. He’s run a part-time schedule this season and finished 23rd at both Richmond and Martinsville after starting outside the top 30 in each race.
Patrick Emerling ($5,000; Starting P28) Emerling isn’t great and to be honest, there’s always the reality that he finishes outside the top 30. However, at this price tag I’m fine with him just not killing me with negative points. He’s posted 11, 23, 16, 41, and 28 points in his five races this year. He’s cheaper than Jesse Iwuji which I just don’t understand, although it doesn’t sound like Iwuji will actually run the race. Emerling likely won’t finish on the lead lap, but I also don’t hate that he ran the modified race this weekend as well. The equipment and style of racing will be completely different for Saturday’s race, but laps are laps. I don’t love that he’s starting P28 but I think he’s worth a sprinkle’s worth of exposure.
Alpha Prime Racing: Alpha Prime is giving us a couple cheap punts to consider: Julia Landauer ($5,200) and Howie Disavino III ($4,700). If we’re considering the price tags relative to the equipment, we know there’s value here. However, Landauer is making her Xfinity Series debut so I’m a bit hesitant to get any exposure to her and I don’t know if she’s done any racing this year. According to Racing Reference and her Wikipedia page she hasn’t raced in two years. However, I did learn she competed on Survivor almost a decade ago so there’s that. Regarding Disavino, this is another driver I’m not committing too much exposure to. He failed to qualify at Richmond and didn’t have a good showing at Martinsville. I’m only looking here for exposure to differentiate my builds with a variety of value plays. I like the equipment at this price tag but they’ll need some chaos to move up.
Keep an eye out for Kyle Weatherman who drove Jesse Iwuji’s car in practice and qualifying. It doesn’t sound like Iwuji will run the race so if Weatherman is added to the driver pool I think he’s worth rostering.
Example Lineups
Example Lineups will be posted in the NASCAR DFS Discord Channel prior to Saturday afternoon’s race.
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