With just THREE races left in the 2022 Camping World Truck Series season, the calendar turns to October and we give our attention to Talladega Superspeedway for some pack racing with high variance. But we also have the Xfinity Series also racing Saturday afternoon to give us a great doubleheader. We didn’t see the Truck Series run ‘Dega earlier this year, but we have plenty of superspeedway and pack racing data to look at from Daytona and Atlanta’s new configuration. Expect chaos this weekend. In 2021, the Fall Talladega weekend gave us new winners in each series with Tate Fogleman, Brandon Brown, and Bubba Wallace all scoring their first career victories in their respective series. A $20 parlay on all three of those drivers to win a year ago would’ve paid more than $1 million. Let’s dive into the NASCAR DFS picks for Saturday’s action at Talladega Superspeedway!
I’m going to do just one Playbook this weekend, but it’ll cover both races. The way I see it, we have two superspeedway races on Saturday just hours apart and we knew the qualifying order by Friday evening. So this will be one of the rare instances where I’ll have one Playbook for two separate races just to centralize all the info for Saturday’s races and Matt will still have you covered for Sunday’s Cup Series race, but you can get an early preview of the Cup Series race for the YellaWood 500 by clicking HERE and listening to Matt's NASCAR DFS Podcast.
Now as we all know, Daytona, Talladega, and now Atlanta produce unpredictable racing. We know the strategies and expectations for this type of race but it doesn’t take much to go from winning a lot to losing it all. So to recap, here are some NASCAR DFS strategies when building lineups for superspeedway races:
- Don’t hesitate to leave salary on the table. All too often we’ve seen the optimal lineup leaving anywhere from $10,000-$25,000 on the table. Salary is not relevant for DFS this weekend.
- Stacking the back is viable in Cash games. If you’re looking for a good floor, you’re probably starting six drivers starting at the rear for 50/50’s and Double Up’s. They can’t kill you with negative place differential and if there’s chaos these drivers should move up through the field as the race progresses and gain DFS value that way.
- Disregard dominator points. It’s not out of the realm of possibilities for a driver to lead 40+ laps in this style of racing, especially if they spend all of stage two running single file. Fastest laps are usually distributed evenly, while some drivers can accumulate laps led. But if they wreck then all those dominator points are useless.
- Don’t completely stack the back in GPP’s. It’s fine for Cash but we do need to get some low-owned drivers into our lineups. So with that said no one is truly off the table. Even the polesitter, but you better know the risk you’re taking when playing the polesitter. Truthfully you probably want to start one driver starting in the top 15, two or three drivers starting P16-P25, and then two of three drivers starting outside the top 25.
- Play light. This is probably my best piece of advice. If you’re in a state where it’s legal to wager on these races, I’d rather go that route because high variance races are when we see drivers with longer odds for a top ten, or manufacturer, hit at a higher frequency. I typically only make ten lineups at the most and play them in cheaper contests. Because every time I watch these races and do all the research, the big one will come and wipe out a good portion of the field and we’re left feeling like we can only throw darts at these races.
We did not have a practice session on Friday. This tends to be a very expensive weekend for teams, especially if they damage equipment and due to the fact that these tracks level the playing field for all drivers. So with no practice we’re looking at the Truck race starting at 12:30pm ET on Saturday for 94 laps (20-20-54 lap segments) and the Xfinity Series will go green about 4:20pm ET for 113 laps (25-25-63). Qualifying was run Friday afternoon so let’s dive into Saturday’s NASCAR DFS drivers to target for our Cash and GPP lineups!
Always remember, that nobody is off the table at this kind of race. Anything can happen and the most random lineup can hit. Just because a driver isn’t in the Playbook this week doesn’t mean they’re a bad play.
Truck Series Chevy Silverado 250 DraftKings Top Plays
Parker Kligerman ($10,400; P21)
I’m going to be honest, Kligerman is in here for the PD. We all cheered and had a beer in his honor when he won at Mid-Ohio. As someone who has only covered NASCAR DFS for just a few years, that moment sticks out more than most when you understand what the win meant for this small team. But Talladega is another opportunity for a small team (like Henderson Motorsports) to score a win and he’s offering PD with finishing upside which we value at this track. He grabbed a top five at Daytona in February and he does have a pair of wins at Talladega although they came in 2017 and 2012. Either way, Kligerman’s presence and PD are noteworthy.
Johnny Sauter ($10,200; Starting P19)
Kind of a wild price tag for Johnny Sauter, right? Either way, pricing isn’t an issue this week. Sauter had an electrical issue at Daytona with G2G Racing, but in three races with ThorSport this year he’s finished 2nd (Martinsville), 5th (Gateway), and 12th (IRP). He does have four career wins between Daytona (three) and Talladega (one) but it’s been a hot minute since he’s been to victory lane. He’s viable in all formats, but I don’t think I’ll be using him in Cash games. I do expect ThorSport and KBM to work together to draft their way to the front so Sauter works well if stacking Toyota’s.
Stewart Friesen ($9,800; Starting P18)
Friesen has run five races here and never finished worse than 22nd and he’s finished on the lead lap in four races with a pair of top six finishes in 2018 and 2019. He starts far enough back to where he’s a very intriguing GPP play because of the PD. He’s hitting value if he finishes in the top five and he’s a borderline Cash game play.
Corey Heim ($9,000; Starting P12)
Heim is in that mix of drivers that fix well in Toyota stacks as a PD play with some win equity. He’s a sure fire GPP play, but far from a Cash game play. He’s starting a little too high for Cash games, but either way he starts outside the top ten and won a race at Atlanta earlier this year which runs more like a superspeedway now. If it helps he also has five straight top tens heading into Saturday’s race.
Grant Enfinger ($8,600; Starting P16)
Enfinger presents another solid play and one that works well in Chevy/GMS stacks if you go that route. He has a win at Daytona and has only wrecked once in eight races there which represents his only finish outside the top 20. He also has a win at Talladega, but it came back in 2016. But I’ve touched on this whenever I’ve written Enfinger up, he’s a savvy driver who takes advantage of strategy to put himself in position to contend for wins late in the race. There’s some nice win equity here in the mid-range between him and the next driver.
Ben Rhodes ($8,200; Starting P15)
I know we say pricing is meaningless for these superspeedway races, but what is DK doing with this price tag? He’s the defending series champion and he’s won on Daytona before. He hasn’t had the same levels of success at Dega but he hasn’t finished worse than 16th in his last four races here (with zero wrecks) and he’s done well at Daytona even outside his win. The depressed price tag is questionable but makes him such an easier play in GPP’s because we know he has a little win equity as well.
Matt DiBenedetto ($7,900; Starting P30)
Matty D had his up’s and down’s in the Cup Series at superspeedways. However, the up’s were great. He finished 13th or better in nine of 19 races at Daytona, but he didn’t have the same success at Dega with just one top ten finish in 14 races. He grabbed a top ten earlier this year in the Truck Series at Daytona and overall, the P30 starting spot stands out as an easy target for Cash games and GPP’s.
Bret Holmes ($7,500; Starting P23)
Holmes is another good mid-range play. I thought about including Tyler Ankrum and by no means is he not worth playing, but he does have a tendency to get caught up in wrecks. Holmes has a small sample size on superspeedways, but he did finish 15th here a year ago and I don’t anticipate ownership being incredibly heavy on him.
Kaz Grala ($7,100; Starting P28)
Grala gets an acknowledgment for the PD. I don’t love the equipment but that doesn’t matter at this track. At some point in the race I do imagine we’ll see Grala running in the top five. Anytime I roster a Young’s Motorsports driver, I have hot flashes of the truck not firing up and our day is over before the race even starts. But I digress. There’s PD and top ten upside for him. I’ll also mention Parker Retzlaff for a $100 discount. However, this is his Truck Series debut and I don’t love that it’s coming at Talladega. But he starts deep enough in the field where I don’t hate the play entirely. He’s been great on the flatter tracks in Xfinity, but this is a completely different animal.
Timmy Hill ($6,800; Starting P33)
Timmy Hill hasn’t returned negative DFS points this year. Let that sink in. His worst performance is six points and he’s returned less than ten points just twice on the year. At this style of track, you’ll take that floor knowing he’s in a great spot to get at least 30 if he avoids disaster. In two career races at Daytona he’s finished 14th twice after starting P30 and P35. It’s been a hot minute since he ran Talladega in the Truck Series but he did finish 20th and sixth. He’s run the Xfinity Series the last two years at Talladega and grabbed a pair of top 15 finishes. So from this starting spot I do consider him a relatively easy “lock.”
Kaden Honeycutt ($6,200; Starting P36)
Honeycutt works perfectly fine if you’re stacking the back in Cash games. We’ve seen him finished in the top 25 a handful of times this season and at this track in particular, he can’t get you negative points because he’s starting dead last. He should be in everyone’s Cash game lineups because of the safe floor he provides.
Jordan Anderson ($5,800; Starting P9)
In his last three races at Daytona he has an average starting position of 23.3 with an average finish of 9.6 with back-to-back runner-up finishes. At Talladega he’s had an average starting position of 28.6 and an average finishing position of 12.8 including finishes of 11th or better in three of his last four races here. He’s even had success this year on non-superspeedway tracks with top 20 finishes at Texas-1 and Gateway while finishing 18th at new Atlanta back in March. Be cautious though because while he’s never wrecked at Talladega that doesn’t mean he never will. But he does thrive in this style of racing. He did qualify inside the top ten so he’ll need to basically finish there or better to be in the optimal lineup. But at this starting spot it’s hard to imagine he’ll carry much rostership.
Dean Thompson ($5,600; Starting P35) and Lawless Alan ($5,300; Starting P34)
Thompson and Alan are arguably the same driver today. The price is nearly the same, they’re in the same equipment, and the starting spots are nearly identical. If both can finish in the top 20 they’re great plays and potentially optimal with top 15 finishes. They work well in Niece Motorsports stacks or Chevy stacks. But getting both to finish could be a tall order as it’s also possible one or both wreck out. Both are eligible in Cash games when stacking the back.
Xfinity Series Sparks 300 DraftKings Top Plays
Jr. Motorsports
Justin Allgaier, Noah Gragson, Josh Berry, and Sam Mayer all qualified well. I don’t think a stack is viable because there’s a very narrow path to being optimal and they represent the four most expensive drivers on the slate today. Three of them start in the top seven and all four are in the top 13. I don’t think I’ll be going here heavily but Gragson did win here in the Spring and there’s obvious win equity and they’ll be drafting and pitting together. If one or two wreck then your stack goes out the window so it comes down to picking the right drivers and I don’t want to rack my head when there are clearer options on the board.
Kaulig Racing
I’ll lump these three drivers together because historically Kaulig tends to run very well on superspeedways. They’ll draft and pit together with teams like RCR and JRM so they won’t have issues falling out of a draft since they’ll likely be the draft. The best value might be Landon Cassill but we can’t rule out Daniel Hemric and AJ Allmendinger. If building 20 lineups you can do a full Kaulig stack but you need all three of them contending for the win with three other drivers running in the top 15 as well. It can happen with this team if they avoid the big one.
Ty Gibbs ($9,900; Starting P2)
Be prepared to get weird with your Ty Gibbs lineups today. I think he’s viable in DFS. The downside is he’s starting on the front row next to Austin Hill who has been a drafting wizard on superspeedways this year. Gibbs wrecked out in his Dega debut a year ago but he finished top five in the first two stages and was consistently up front. He also finished 7th and 11th at Daytona this year and won Atlanta-1. I truthfully don’t think he’ll have a lot of ownership today, but I could be wrong. Obviously not going to risk playing him in Cash games.
Riley Herbst ($9,100; Starting P23)
Personally I think this could be a trap and I won’t be going here. But he starts outside the top 20. He’s raced here five times and wrecked thrice. In the two races he finished he was 7th and 4th so there’s upside. The success at Daytona is decent as well but this feels like a bit of a trap. I can’t predict the carnage here but Herbst might carry a lot of exposure given the starting spot and I think this is one where I’ll personally fade, but you can play at your own risk.
Austin Hill ($8,800; Starting P1)
I completely understand we don’t like starting the polesitter for DFS purposes. However, I’ll give Hill an exception because he’s been so good at this style of track this year. He laid down the fastest lap in qualifying. He won Daytona to kick off the season and led 23 laps. He led 18 laps in the second Daytona race but finished 14th. Still not awful considering the nature of these tracks. He was incredibly impressive in both Atlanta races, winning one and finishing second in the other leading a total of 100 laps between both races. He’s been phenomenal at this style of track and we’ve seen the polesitter at Talladega perform very well the last couple years. I do like his teammate, Sheldon Creed, today but it’s such a risk playing two guys starting so far up front together. I’d opt for just one and give the lean to Hill since he’s shown more consistency at these tracks.
Myatt Snider ($8,200; Starting P21)
Snider is one of those drivers that either wrecks and kills your day or he’s in the optimal lineup with a top ten finish. The same holds true today so only play him in GPP’s. In three of his five races at Talladega he’s wrecked. But in the other two he grabbed a top ten finish. In six races at Daytona he’s wrecked twice but finished top 20 in the other four races including three top 12 finishes. I love him as a driver that might not be rostered heavily so just stick to GPP’s because of the variance.
Ryan Sieg ($7,900; Starting P14)
Sieg is the ultimate GPP play for this afternoon’s race. He’s right on the bubble of the playoff cut line so he needs a strong showing, but he’d also love a win. He’s been great here his last few races finishing 4th, 11th, 5th, and 2nd. He got caught up in a wreck a few weeks ago at Daytona, but finished eighth in the Spring race there and he finished 15th and 10th in the two Atlanta races this year. Very nice upside play but he’ll crush a lineup if he is caught up in a wreck.
Jeffrey Earnhardt ($7,700; Starting P27)
Earnhardt nearly won Talladega earlier this year but finished second to Noah Gragson. He’s not in the greatest equipment on Sunday. However, he offers enough PD where he should be considered playable for today’s action in Cash and GPP contests. Do be warned because he’s wrecked out of 4/10 of his Talladega races and 5/12 Daytona races. Hard to go against his PD though.
Jeremy Clements ($7,500; Starting P37)
Clements doesn’t necessarily have the greatest resume at Talladega, but he did win at Daytona not too long ago and he’s starting 37th. I’m not quite sure what happened during his qualifying lap but he was 1.5 seconds off Austin Hill’s pace. Unless we hear anything about the car before today’s race then we can assume he’s fine and can keep up with the draft. This is probably Clements’ best shot to move on to the next round in the playoffs so he may ride around the back most of the race before making a late push for a win.
Brandon Brown $7,300; Starting P17)
Brown might go overlooked because of the cheaper drivers starting further back. That’s perfectly fine for the driver who won this race a year ago for his only career win. He wrecked in the Spring race at Dega, but he does have five top 15’s here as well. He’s had similar success at Daytona including four top ten finishes in his last seven races there including fourth in the Spring. I don’t love the starting spot enough in Cash games because if he wrecks the negative points will really hurt but I do like him for GPP’s a good bit.
Timmy Hill ($6,900; Starting P36)
Starting one spot in front of Clements will be Timmy Hill. We already mentioned Hill in the Truck write-up and the same applies down here for this race. Hill finished second at Daytona in the Xfinity Series earlier this year and has never finished worse than 23rd at Daytona in this series. In fact, he’s finished every race which is a big value for us. Now for Dega he has wrecked twice in eight races, but he’s logged back-to-back top 15 finishes. He’s a lock in Cash games along with Clements.
Josh Williams ($6,700; Starting P30)
Williams won’t be as popular as Clements or Hill but he’s still a decent play given the P30 starting spot. He has four top 20 finishes in seven races at Talladega including a pair of top ten finishes. He’s been a disaster at Daytona having wrecked in six of 11 races. I like him today if pairing him with another DGM driver.
JJ Yeley ($5,900; Starting P35)
When Yeley can actually finish at Dega, he tends to do pretty well. He wrecked in his first two races back in 2005 and 2006, but didn’t finish April’s race. However, in the other seven races he’s finished 16th, 11th, 11th, 22nd, 4th, 7th, and 17th. He’s finished in the top 13 in the last four Daytona races and was 11th at Atlanta-1 this year. Most Cash lineups will likely start with him, Clements, and Hill. Rightfully so.
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