NASCAR DFS Playbook: Beef, It's What's For Dinner 300

We kicked off the 2022 season with some mixed results Friday night in the Truck Series. Personally, my decision to play Cash contests helped me last night. I turned a $36.50 profit and I’ll never complain about even the slightest profit at a superspeedway.

Similar to the Truck Series Playbook I’m going to kick off the XFIN Playbook with a recap of the moves/changes from the offseason so you’re up-to-speed on the new faces in new places.

• Ty Gibbs is officially running a full-time schedule with JGR in 2022. Gibbs is very young. He’s only 19 years old. But even in a part-time schedule last season he won FOUR races. JGR will condense to a two-car team in 2022 with Gibbs in the 54-car and Brandon Jones in the 19-car. JGR will run a part-time 18-car with Trevor Bayne and Drew Dollar mixing in some races here and there. But despite Gibbs’ youth he’s immediately a contender for the Xfinity Series championship in the Fall. He will win races this year and he will be a favorite for DFS.
• Michael Annett retired from full-time racing and Sam Mayer now takes over the 1-car on a full-time basis. Mayer had some high’s and low’s in 2021, but truthfully he finished the season very strong. Over his last five races in 2021 (ROVAL, Texas, Kansas, Martinsville, Phoenix) he didn’t finish worse than 13^th in any of these five races including a top five at Martinsville. Mayer is a bit of a short track specialist with a win at Bristol in 2020 in the Truck Series. Keep an eye on him in 2022.
• Joining Mayer on a full-time basis with Jr. Motorsports will be Josh Berry in the 8-car. Berry is a bit of a fan favorite because he’s a bit of a hot commodity in terms of prospects, but he’s older than your average prospect at 31 years old. He’ll race in anything, which garners the respect of his peers. We’ll see him bounce around and get some runs in the Truck Series in 2022, but on a part-time schedule last year he grabbed wins at Martinsville and Vegas. We’ll all be pulling for him to have a strong showing in 2022.
• Let’s talk Kaulig Racing. This team is turning into a dominant force in the Xfinity Series. Justin Haley moves on to a full-time ride in the Cup series and Jeb Burton is gone heading into 2022. Now we get Landon Cassill stepping into the 10-car and we’ll touch on Cassill below. But Cassill is an experienced driver finally getting an opportunity with a good team. 2021 Xfinity Series Champion… *Clears Throat* I REPEAT… THE 2021 XFINITY SERIES CHAMPION, DANIEL HEMRIC will now grace us with his presence in the 11-car for Kaulig as well. Kaulig lost two good drivers and still replaced them with a couple solid drivers for the 2022 season. This team will always show up on superspeedways and they’ll have speed on road courses and intermediates as well. Not to mention, Kaulig still retains A.J. Allmendinger on a full-time basis as well. 
• Sheldon Creed jumps up from the Truck Series and he gets a hell of a ride in the 2-car for Richard Childress Racing. He’s going to be a driver we target plenty of times in the upcoming season. Joining Creed in the 21-car will be his new teammate, Austin Hill, who he raced hard plenty of times in the Truck Series. I’m curious to see what these Truck Series wheelmen can do in Xfinity.
• This isn’t necessarily a groundbreaking move but Bayley Currey will run the full season for J.D. Motorsports in 2022. He made the move from Mike Harmon Racing to JDM in the middle of last season and instantly started logging more top 20 finishes down the stretch. Is he a threat to win? No. But he could make for a nice low-owned, value play to start the season.
• SS Green Light Racing will run two teams in 2022. Joe Graf Jr. will run the 07-car while David Starr will run a majority of races in the 08-car with Cole Custer stepping in for four runs and Chase Briscoe getting a race as well.
• Anthony Alfredo (Fast Pasta) will run full-time in 2022 in the 23-car for Our Motorsports.
• The 26-car for Sam Hunt Racing will see Ryan Truex, Jeffrey Earnhardt, John Hunter Nemechek, and Derek Griffith run part-time schedules in this car.
• Jeb Burton moves on from the 10-car with Kaulig to the 27-car for Our Motorsports. It’s a clear downgrade, but it’s good to see him grab a full-time ride once again.
• Myatt Snider will run the 31-car for Jordan Anderson Racing in 2022. There’s some intrigue here as he’s a decent driver, but can the equipment hold up? We did see him grab a win last season in Miami but that was with RCR.
• Natalie Decker and Will Rodgers will split time in the 33-car for Reaume Brothers. I have a hard time believing we’ll be looking here much for DFS.
• Jesse Iwuji will run the 34-car in a partnership with Emmitt Smith for 2022.
• Shane Lee will drive the 35-car for the newly formed Emerling-Gase Racing. There are rumors they may also run a part-time car, but that hasn’t gained much traction as this point.
• DGM Racing will once again have a presence with a full-time team and a part-time squad as well. Alex Labbe will run 18 races this year with Josh Bilicki getting some time in the 36-car. Mason Massey will run the 91-car for a fair amount of races and Kyle Weatherman will run the first five races of the 2022 season in the 92-car.
• RSS Racing will see Ryan Sieg run the full season in the 39-car. We know the up’s and down’s that come with rostering Sieg. It’s all going great until he doesn’t pit for tires and he risks wrecking the entire field on a restart. CJ McLaughlin and Parker Retzlaff will split time in the 38-car for RSS Racing in 2022.
• Alpha Prime Racing is a new team and they will run the 44-and-45-cars in 2022. This team will see a combination of Tommy Joe Martins, Caesar Bacarella, Rajah Caruth, Kaz Grala, and Ryan Ellis behind the wheel. I’m honestly not expecting much from this team in 2022 unless they’re offering PD for us in DFS.
• Timmy Hill and JJ Yeley will run the 66-car for MBM Motorsports. Not a lot to love about the equipment, but we do like the drivers.
• Brandon Brown will continue to run his independently-financed team with the 68-car. He had a tumultuous offseason with the failure of the LGB-coin sponsor. I’m still pulling for him because he’s a likable guy that can provide some surprising results for DFS.
• Josh Williams will run the 78-car for BJ McLeod Motorsports full-time in 2022. The good news is that Williams brings plenty of sponsors and he can get the most out of his equipment. But can he get the most out of this equipment on a regular basis?

Alright so we’ve gotten through the offseason. Let’s turn the attention to Daytona. Aside from the Buschy McBusch Race 400 from a year ago, this is probably one of the best race names we get with the Beef, It’s What’s For Dinner 300. I turned a profit Friday night in a relatively tame night in the Truck Series. The race didn’t get spicy until the final lap and then it was forced to go into overtime just barely. I expect a little more chaos on Saturday, but again we won’t know the starting order until tomorrow afternoon.

So what do we have on tap for Saturday’s race? We have 120 laps for Sunday’s race which means we get 84 dominator points to work with at most. Keep in mind, during cautions we don’t get fastest laps. I don’t know the stages yet, but I imagine they’ll run something like 30-30-60 segments since we saw the Trucks run 20-20-60 for a 100-lap race on Friday. As always, starting position is key here. Here was my Cash lineup from Friday night’s Truck Series race in terms of where my drivers started and how the ownership was dispersed…

As you can see, if you’re a good driver offering PD, you’re going to be heavily owned. And even if you aren’t the greatest driver, but you still offer PD? You’ll still get some love. Salaries don’t really matter here. The beauty of superspeedways is that you can build whatever lineup you want as long as you know the appropriate strategies.

So once we know the qualifying order, the same rules will apply. For Cash games we want to target position differential. John Hunter Nemechek led 50 of 106 laps on Friday but was involved in a late wreck where he ultimately finished 24^th and the negative PD negated his laps led. Ty Majeski started on the pole and led 21 laps. His seventh place finish is still admirable but the negative PD wiped out his laps led, but at least he finished better than JHN. So once again, I’m not really looking to target dominator points in this race. Once we know the starting order for Saturday’s race we’ll look for positive PD candidates, drivers we think can finish well, and we’ll try to identify some low-owned leverage plays that are worth taking a gamble on.

Driver Pool

Please do check back in after qualifying this afternoon. I shot myself in the foot with the Truck Playbook mentioning a lot of drivers that ultimately qualified too high. For now, I’m going to offer a pretty shallow driver pool but will post updates in red following qualifying this afternoon and I’ll be in the Discord as well.

Kaulig Racing – Kaulig Racing always sets up there cars well for superspeedways. A year ago, Jeb Burton and A.J. Allmendinger finished in the top five in this race. In the second Daytona race Justin Haley won, while Allmendiger and Burton finished second and fourth. At Talladega-1, Jeb Burton won, Allmendinger finished third, and Haley finished eighth. Dinger didn’t finish Talladega-2, but Haley and Burton finished sixth and seventh. This team knows what they’re doing to get the right setup for Daytona. I’m hoping they don’t qualify too high but a Kaulig stack of A.J. Allmendinger, Daniel Hemric, and Landon Cassill could be a viable GPP strategy. But we’ll see how qualifying plays out. Regardless, it’ll be hard to fade any of these rides this week. Update: Hemric's on the pole, Allmendinger is P11, and Cassill is P6. Can't say I'm too surprised but you still have to like them for GPP's since they run so well at superspeedways.

Joe Gibbs Racing – I’ll briefly touch on JGR similar to what I just did for Kaulig Racing. This team will run three cars today with Ty Gibbs, Brandon Jones, and Drew Dollar. They were fast in practice yesterday and they ran more laps than other teams did so they have a decent feel for the draft. The risk with Toyotas is that there aren’t many in the field, but I think that’s more of a hindrance at the Cup level than Xfinity. Typically, pit strategy comes into play as manufacturers will pit together so they can draft together when they get back on track. If they’re running the first two stages in 30-lap segments then they’ll likely pit at the stage breaks anyway and true pit strategy won’t come into play until later in the race. If there are multiple cautions, we could see pits happen then. Now that I’ve rambled on long enough about pit strategies, I will say that JGR stacks are viable. Brandon Jones has a couple top fives here but he’s very prone to wrecking and we don’t think of him as an elite superspeedway racer. Ty Gibbs has immense talent, but this is his first superspeedway race in the Xfinity Series. He’s previously run superspeedways in ARCA but the field was half the size. Think of the approach we took with Corey Heim last night. I likely won’t play much Gibbs unless I opt for a Gibbs stack. But I do anticipate minimal exposure as he should qualify well. Update: Gibbs is starting P15 which isn't awful but I think he'll still draw a lot of ownership. I'm still leaning towards being under the field on him. Brandon Jones rolls off P9 and Drew Dollar is P12. Not liking them too much for Cash games.

Noah Gragson ($9,800) – Yes sir, Mr. Checkers Or Wreckers himself is in the Playbook for obvious reasons. His aggressive style will either pay massive dividends or he’ll wreck out and screw plenty of lineups. Gragson won this race two years ago and finished seventh here in the Summer of last year. Also, last Fall’s race at Talladega marked the first time in six races he failed to finish a race at Dega. Prior to that he had never finished worse than 11^th there. If he’s offering PD let’s lock him in. If he’s starting toward the front, reserve exposure to just GPP’s. Update: Gragson is starting in the mid-teens which is great for GPP's. I don't think he's a necessity in Cash lineups, so don't feel like you have to fit him in. Use your best judgment.

Josh Berry ($9,600) – Truthfully I could’ve done a JR Motorsports section similar to the Kaulig one above, but Grason’s teammate, Josh Berry, is in play today but you just get the sense he’ll probably qualify in the top 12 or so. Berry doesn’t have the experience on superspeedways that he does on short tracks. But he’s on a great team that can work together in the draft as we saw in yesterday’s practice results. There are plenty of Chevy’s in the field and honestly I think most will look at the poor results in a small sample size for him and lay off. If there’s leverage to be had with a JR Motorsports driver then sign me up. Also keep Justin Allagaier and Sam Mayer in mind for any Chevy/JR Motorsports stacks. Update: Berry is starting P7, Mayer is P34, Allgaier is P17. Mayer is the obvious option in Cash games. Berry is just a GPP play. Allgaier is kind of like Gragson but obviously he offers a tough more PD so he's a little better in Cash games.

Brett Moffitt ($8,500) – Moffitt did pretty well at superspeedways in his first full season at the XFIN level. He was the runner-up here a year ago and finished 11^th at Daytona-2. I do hope there’s the possibility he qualifies poorly so we can take advantage of a Chevy stack and use him for PD. If you want to get a little crazy you could maybe try an Our Motorsports stack with Moffit, Anthony Alfredo, and their teammate at $8,000 who we will get to shortly. Again, it all comes down to starting position. Update: Moffitt qualified P5. That's deep-field GPP only territory.

Myatt Snider ($8,300) – When he finishes at superspeedways, he surprisingly does very well. Last year at Daytona with RCR he finished 7^th and 8^th. In four races at Talladega he has a top ten (which came last year) but he also wrecked three times. So again, when he finishes he does quite well. The equipment is a clear downgrade, but at the same time we do hold Jordan Anderson in high regard as a good plate racer and while he failed to qualify for yesterday’s Truck Series race, I’m sure he’s instilled some wisdom into Snider who is already solid at these tracks. Update: P33 for Snider? He's great for GPP's and I'm fine with him in Cash games today.

Jeb Burton ($8,000) – Jeb Burton may not be with Kaulig anymore but we saw him win at a superspeedway last year and he has a good track record on this style of track. Is the equipment great? Ehhhhh the jury might be out, to be honest. It’s not Kaulig, but Our Motorsports made strides last year. Burton had three top five finishes on superspeedways last year. If he’s offering PD for Saturday’s race then we’ll be sure to get exposure. Update: Burton is starting P27 and will likely be 70-80% owned in Cash games and rightfully so.

Brandon Brown ($7,600) – Remember, Daytona levels the playing field and gives the smaller teams a chance to win. Remember Talladega-2 last year? Tate Fogleman got his first Truck series win. Bubba Wallace got his first career Cup series win. And Brandon Brown got his first Xfinity series win. If you parlayed all three of those drivers to win, you would’ve turned $20 into over $1 million. Now in his last five Daytona races he’s finished 34^th, 6^th, 26^th, 7^th, and 6^th so the results fluctuate but that’s Daytona. At Talladega, Brown has never finished worse than 15^th in five races and he has three straight top tens there. The further back he starts, the more popular he will be and rightly so. Update: Brown qualified P13. You can't really use him in Cash games but I do like the spot for GPP's. He could come in with low ownership.

Jeremy Clements ($7,300) – Statistically this isn’t his best track. I’m more inclined to play Brown over Clements if both start inside the top 20. I’d only entertain Clements if he’s offering PD. He’s finished 20^th or worse in his last four races here. So why did I put him in the Playbook? He still brings a ton of experience here. He’s raced Daytona and Talladega a total of 36 times and there are plenty of Chevy’s in the field for him to work with. Again, we need PD. If he starts too high then I’m going to lose interest. Update: Clements qualified P35 so he's usable in all formats today.

JJ Yeley ($6,400) – I really like Yeley at this price tag. Last year we routinely saw him priced nearly $1,000 more than this. However, I’ve never been less confident in any of his equipment. In his last five races at Daytona dating back to June 2017 he’s finished top 20 in all of them while gaining anywhere from 10-20 spots of PD in each race. He has similar success at Talladega especially after he drove a BJ McLeod Motorsports car from 38^th to 16^th. Now the good news is Timmy Hill got a top 20 out of this thing a year ago and Jason White finished 15^th last year in Daytona-2. We have to assume Yeley starts outside the top 30 if he does qualify and he will be a nice PD candidate if we get the usual amount of chaos at Daytona. Update: Yeley went out and qualified P21, which is pretty hard to gauge for DFS because that's in the middle of the field. He's perfectly fine for GPP's but there is some risk here for Cash games if he wrecks.

Josh Williams ($5,900) – Assuming this car is good to go for the race, Williams should be on our radar as another solid PD target. In his last three Daytona races he’s finished 17^th, 21^st, and 9^th. He also finished 14^th at Talladega-2 last year. He’ll be in the 78-car for BJ McLeod and honestly if we’re going to use this car, let it be Daytona. Jesse Little finished 17^th here a year ago and then Mason Massey got some PD and a 25^th-place finish at Daytona-2. Vinnie Miller got a pair of top 15 finishes in 2020 in this car. Now it’s more likely due to the fact that plenty of cars wrecked out ahead of these drivers which allowed them to move up. So what? We should hope for that if rostering drivers in this tier. Update: Similar to Yeley, Williams qualified P24 which is a little better for Cash games, but I feel better about him in GPP's. This team does avoid the carnage pretty well though so he's still a borderline Cash game play.

Matt Mills ($5,300) – Williams’ teammate, Matt Mills, is familiar with BJ McLeod equipment and he’s had plenty of success at Daytona. He’s raced here six times since 2019 and he usually makes it known when we should play him. Last summer he started too high and fell backward, but he was clearly just a contrarian option. But a year ago he started P27 and finished 16^th. In the Summer of 2020 he had a similar result starting P29 and finished 16^th. He also has a top ten here so while these BJ McLeod cars won’t wow us with their performance mid-race, they do tend to hang around and gain PD by avoiding the wreckage. We should assume he’ll start pretty far back on Saturday. And if you want even more exposure to cheap BJ McLeod Motorsports drivers then Stefan Parsons will be in the 99-car and he’s $5,800. He’s finished 12^th and 13^th in two Daytona races. Update: Mills qualified P18. I wouldn't go here in Cash games but love the spot as a contrarian play in GPP's.

Drivers getting an upgrade based on starting position: Justin Allgaier, Sam Mayer, Myatt Snider, Jeb Burton, Jeremy Clements, Shane Lee, Josh Bilicki, Tommy Joe Martins, Joey Gase

Drivers getting a downgrade based on starting position (Best left for GPP's): Daniel Hemric, Landon Cassill, Ty Gibbs, Josh Berry, Brandon Jones, Riley Herbst, Sheldon Creed, Brett Moffitt, Austin Hill, Brandon Brown, Anthony Alfredo, Ryan Sieg

Example Lineups

The Example Lineups are meant to give you an idea on how to approach roster construction. They are not meant to be plugged and played.

For what it’s worth, a nice was to start with your Cash Game Core is to load up Sam Mayer, Myatt Snider, Jeremy Clements, and Jeb Burton as you’ll see below. They could all be well over 70% owned and that’s why I’m a little hesitant about Cash Games today and which is why I’m only playing GPP’s light today.

DraftKings Cash Game Example Lineup

1. Sam Mayer
2. Myatt Snider
3. Jeremy Clements
4. Jeb Burton
5. Justin Allgaier
   1. Tommy Joe Martins (Pivot)
6. Ryan Truex
   1. Joey Gase (Pivot)

DraftKings GPP Example Lineup

1. A.J. Allmendinger
2. Landon Cassill
   1. Noah Gragson (Pivot)
3. Myatt Snider
4. Jeb Burton
   1. Matt Mills (Pivot)
5. JJ Yeley
   1. Justin Allgaier (Pivot)
6. Josh Williams

Hopefully with these GPP Examples you can see that you can take some risks on drivers starting higher but understand you do need drivers starting outside the top 20. Take some risks and leave money on the table today. Best of luck!