The 2023 NASCAR Xfinity Series kicks off Saturday at Daytona and it should make for an exciting season with some new names stepping into a new tier now that Ty Gibbs, Noah Gragson, and A.J. Allmendinger made the step up to the NASCAR Cup Series. Those three drivers accounted for 20 wins in the 33 races last year, so there are plenty of opportunities for other drivers to make their mark on the season. But that’s not to say the series is short of talent. Justin Allgaier, Cole Custer, John Hunter Nemecheck, Brandon Jones, and more will still have their shot at claiming this year’s NASCAR Xfinity Series Championship in Phoenix and it all starts at Daytona. Check out an offseason recap as we kick off the NASCAR DFS Playbook for Saturday’s Xfinity Series race from Daytona International Speedway.

 

NASCAR Xfinity Series Schedule Changes

The two big changes for the Xfinity Series are that instead of having two races on the calendar for Talladega and Texas, both tracks will now only have one race each for the Xfinity Series. Taking the place of the vacancies on the schedule, the Xfinity Series will lean even heavier on its road courses by adding Sonoma to the track (a track the Trucks had last year), and the Xfinity Series will make its debut on the Chicago street course alongside the NASCAR Cup Series. The new changes mean the Xfinity Series will now run eight road courses in the new year.

Manufacturer, Team, and Driver Changes

Joe Gibbs Racing

No manufacturer change for JGR, but there are some personnel changes. After claiming back-to-back Xfinity Series Championships in 2020 and 2021, JGR lost Ty Gibbs (the reigning series champion) to the Cup Series and Brandon Jones also left for greener pastures as he’s now with Jr. Motorsports. JGR will field two full-time cars in 2023 with John Hunter Nemechek getting promoted from the Truck Series and taking over the 20-car. Sammy Smith will drive the 18-car. This is an organization that has the expectation for winning several races each year and we should see JHN contending for a series championship while Smith will carry some win equity with each race. On a part-time basis it does sound like the team will run the 19-car with Ryan Truex (eight races), Myatt Snider (six races), Joe Graf Jr. (five races), and Connor Mosack (three races). That’s a huge equipment upgrade for Snider and Graf. Several people are very excited to see what Snider can do with his six-race opportunity.

Jr. Motorsports

Very few changes with JRM this year. We’ve already touched on Noah Gragson making the leap to the Cup Series and joining Legacy Motor Club, and Brandon Jones departs JGR and Toyota to join Chevy/JRM in the 9-car. The team will also be returning Sam Mayer, Josh Berry, and Justin Allgaier. Allgaier and Berry should be in the mix for the Series Championship while Sam Mayer looks to improve on his first full-time season. There was also a shakeup between the drivers and crew chiefs for the upcoming year. Taylor Moyer will now be with Berry, Jim Pohlman is with Allgaier, and Mardy Lindley will crew chief for Mayer. Similar to JGR, this will be a team that contends with the expectation of winning every week.

Kaulig Racing

Arguably the third-best team in the Xfinity Series, this organization has truly come a long way from where they were at a few years ago. However, 2022 did seem like regression for Kaulig. Kaulig did win five races last year, but they were all by Allmendinger on road courses. The previous year, all three of their drivers scored wins including a pair of wins at superspeedways by Jeb Burton and Justin Haley. There was some speculation that the organization has invested more in expanding its Cup Series presence, which makes sense from a business perspective, but that it did come at the expense of the Xfinity Series squad. Nonetheless, this organization is expected to contend and score some wins. Daniel Hemric is back with the team. The 2021 NASCAR Xfinity Series Champion (truly one of the luckiest to ever win a series crown) is back with the team and he’ll drive the 11-car. Jason Trinchere, who came over from the 10-car late in 2022, will be his crew chief once again. Chandler Smith gets a promotion from the Truck Series to the Xfinity Series and he’ll take over the 16-car vacated by A.J. Allmendinger. Bruce Schlicker will be his crew chief. And the 10-car will be vacated by Landon Cassill and it will become the team’s “All Star” car. Justin Haley, Austin Dillon, A.J. Allmendinger, and Kyle Busch will all contribute to that car’s part-time schedule.

Stewart-Haas Racing

SHR has some big changes lined up for the 2023 season. The team will expand to two full-time cars. With Ryan Preece taking over the 41-car in the Cup Series (a well-deserved opportunity after he gambled on himself and moved into a reserve role with SHR last season), Cole Custer gets bumped to the Xfinity Series and will drive the 00-car. With Kevin Harvick announcing his retirement at the end of the upcoming season, and Aric Almirola’s career winding down, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Custer back in the Cup Series within the year. Riley Herbst will return to drive the 98-car. In 109 career Xfinity races, he’s still searching for his first career win. The expectation for Custer is that he should contend for a Series Championship this year as he does have ten career wins in the Xfinity Series, including seven during his last full-time season in Xfinity back in 2019.

Big Machine Racing

No team has been more vocal about wanting to take the next step than Big Machine. Scott Borchetta has wanted to get this team and their car to victory lane and it finally paid off last year with Tyler Reddick taking the team’s 48-car to the top at Texas. Parker Kligerman gets a well-earned full-time opportunity with this team. Kligerman has been getting part-time races in the Truck Series culminating in a win at Mid-Ohio last season. Kligerman has cut his chops and should be able to contend for a win or two, depending on the track. But he should elevate this car to being in the mix for top tens each week. Jade Buford will return to the organization on a part-time capacity in 2023 driving the 5-car.

Other NASCAR Xfinity Series News

  • Sam Hunt Racing will expand to two teams, but only one full-time car. Kaz Grala gets the full-time offer in the 26-car. Connor Mosack will run 20 races on a part-time schedule, with Tyler Reddick getting a couple races in as well in a third car. Reddick wheeled the 48-car for Big Machine to victory lane this year, he should be able to do the same for Sam Hunt. Parker Chase will drive a few races as well. 
  • Alpha Prime Racing was a team I thought would do better last year. I didn’t set my expectations incredibly high, but it was clear they prioritized funding over talent, but they might be able to improve this year. They’ll field three cars this season with Jeffrey Earnhardt getting a full-time offer while Ryan Ellis, Sage Karam, Stefan Parsons, and potentially a couple other drivers will rotate in and out of the remaining two part-time cars.
  • Our Motorsports will see some roster overhaul. Gone are Anthony Alfredo, Jeb Burton, and Brett Moffitt. In comes David Starr who will pilot the 02-car at Daytona and will run a handful of races for the team but not on a full-time basis. It does seem like they may run a second car on a part-time basis while shelving a third car for this year at least.
  • Jordan Anderson Racing will be interesting this year. Jeb Burton and Parker Retzlaff will run two cars full-time for this team. I like the quality of these two drivers, especially Retzlaff who flashed upside on short, flat tracks a year ago. Funding and overall quality of the equipment will be something we contend with each week when building DFS lineups.
  • AM Racing will field a full-time Xfinity Series car with Brett Moffitt getting that opportunity. Again, we have a good driver in this car but not entirely sold on the equipment.
  • JD Motorsports will run the 6-car full-time which will be run by Brennan Poole. Poole is a driver that many believe makes for a good wheel man, but he just never had the right opportunity in good equipment. He will likely be a popular value play to start the year. Bayley Currey returns to the team as well in the 4-car.
  • BJ McLeod Motorsports will field two cars from the looks of it. Anthony Alfredo and Garrett Smithley will pilot those two cars. Decent drivers? Sure. Good equipment? Hardly.
  • SS Greenlight Racing is a team that’s been difficult to find an update on. Blaine Perkins replaces Joe Graf Jr. on a full-time basis with Graf getting part-time opportunities with JGR. Still not entirely sure how that happened, but to each their own.

As I start to write up the Playbook portion and driver pool (around 6:00am on Saturday) we still don’t know the starting lineup for today’s race. Qualifying will be 11:30am ET so we’ll know the starting order by 1:00pm ET. Similar to yesterday’s Truck Series race, I’m only doing one lineup and playing mostly single-entry Cash games while sprinkling the same lineup into some Tournaments. This worked for me last night so I’m looking to go two-for-two. As always, be comfortable leaving salary on the table and don’t play too many drivers starting up front. This is Daytona and in years past we’ve grown very frustrated with the Xfinity Series for the lack of talent and maturity for a lot of the field.

We only have 120 laps for Saturday’s race. That equates to a maximum of 84 dominator points that’ll likely be distributed pretty evenly throughout the field and with cautions they will definitely not hit that number. And as always, check back for updates in red once we know the starting order.

Beef; It’s What’s For Dinner 300 Driver Pool

Austin Hill ($10,500)

I won’t lie, I was a little surprised to see Hill listed as the most expensive driver on DraftKings, but it makes sense. He won this race a year ago and won another at Atlanta’s new configuration last year as well. By all accounts, he knows how to race in the draft. He didn’t qualify for the Daytona 500 on Thursday after being caught up in the wreck that took out Kyle Busch. While that’s a bummer for one of my outright bets for Sunday’s race, I do actually like that it allows Hill to just focus on Saturday’s race and not be distracted by the big show on Sunday. He and the next driver are currently the favorites at +700 on DraftKings to win Saturday’s race. Update: Plenty of win equity here and sure, he could collect a lot of dominator points. He's very good on this style of track but overall the polesitter doesn't fare well in this style of race. Very risky play starting on the front row, but we know he has a ton of upside. DO NOT sleep on his teammate, Sheldon Creed, who will start P4. Creed had some awful luck a year ago and was snakebitten all too often, but he's always a threat as well.

Justin Haley ($10,300)

Yes, Justin Haley makes the Playbook. Surprised? Neither am I. In five career Xfinity races at Talladega he never finished worse than eighth and he secured a pair of wins back in 2020. He also has a pair of wins at Daytona in this series and he won the NASCAR Cup Series summer race at Daytona back in 2019. It’s safe to say, for even as young as he is, he is one of the best superspeedway racer in all of NASCAR and should contend for the win if he’s there at the end. Update: Haley will be a very popular play with the starting spot (P19) so he has PD and win equity. But the big question will be how he fares without A.J. Allmendinger who was able to help him secure so many wins previously in this series through the draft.

Brandon Jones ($9,300)

Jones qualified just outside the top ten and I do like his upside as he'll start P11 and he has plenty of Chevrolets in the field to work with including his own teammates. They will pit together and run in the draft together after stage one so they make for a nice stack in Tournaments.

Josh Berry ($9,100)

Berry rolls off P18 and offers plenty of PD that should perk your ears up. He will have plenty of Chevrolets to work with so long as he keeps the car clean. He's a decent Cash game play with plenty of Tournament upside as well. Sam Mayer is also in play starting P14 at the ripe price of $8,600.

Parker Kligerman ($9,000)

Kligerman unfortunately didn’t finish last night’s race as he was caught up in a wreck, but fortunately he was about 80% owned in Cash games so you may have still cashed despite his performance last night. But he is a good superspeedway racer with plenty of experience and we get to see him debut with Big Machine finally. Remember, he still has a pair of wins at the Truck Series at Talladega along with top five finishes at Daytona. Kligerman also took this very car to a sixth-place finish at Dega last fall. Let’s go back to the well with him for the second straight day in DFS and hope for better results. Update: Tournament only play. Qualified P2.

Daniel Hemric ($8,700)

I don’t love the play because we know the stigma that comes with Hemric. But something still needs to be said for the team he’s on. Kaulig Racing has a history of success on superspeedways and road courses. Daytona being the former gives me some interest in Hemric especially after he won both stages a year ago in this race before he wrecked in stage three. He also scored a top five at Atlanta-2 last summer so don’t completely write him off. Keep him in mind as we observe qualifying later this morning. Update: Starting P6. GPP only play.

Chandler Smith ($8,400)

I suppose we shouldn’t be too surprised that I’m listing all the Kaulig drivers for this race. I fully expect them all to qualify well and they make for a great team stack in tournaments, but don’t play all three if they qualify in the top 15. We’ve seen Kaulig run very well together in previous seasons and Smith was a decent superspeedway racer during his time in the Truck Series with three top 20 finishes and a top five at Talladega, to go with a top ten at Daytona in this race two years ago. He’s a rookie in this field but overall, he has enough experience on superspeedways and looked comfortable in the draft during Friday’s practice session. Update: Really nice Tournament play that may not carry much ownership starting P8. Some win equity here and he's on a team that's had success on this style of track.

Riley Herbst ($8,200)

Herbst is always a high variance play but he did finish fourth here a year ago while finishing 7th and 11th in both Talladega races last year. He does have an 11.8 average finish in his last five Daytona races, and it does feel like the bar has been raised in terms of expectations for Herbst given that Cole Custer is back in the Xfinity Series with him and there are going to be some open seats at the Cup level. If there was ever a time for him to make that jump and start winning races, 2023 should be that year. Update: Good Tournament play rolling off inside the top ten. There's some PD on his side, but he'll be low-owned in tournaments and could surprise everyone with a win.

Ryan Sieg ($8,100)

Sieg is an okay play. He starts P22 and has top ten upside most weeks. But doesn't have the greatest results on this style of track so don't force him in if you don't need to.

Myatt Snider ($7,700)

We are getting our first look at Myatt Snider with Joe Gibbs Racing and we shouldn’t take too much away from this race because it is a superspeedway, but still a very exciting opportunity for him. A year ago with Jordan Anderson Racing he started P33 and only finished 22nd due to a wreck, but the positive PD was still helpful and he bounced back finishing 12th in the summer race at Daytona. In 2021 with Richard Childress Racing, he grabbed a pair of top ten finishes. There is also some win equity here as he’s roughly 25-1 to win this race outright. Update: Starting P13 so I don't love him for Cash games but I wouldn't rule him out. Prefer him more in Tournaments. 

Brett Moffitt ($7,100)

I’m really pulling for Moffitt to show Our Motorsports what they gave up on. He had a very promising start in 2020 and 2021 with that organization. A rough start to 2022 led to the team pulling the plug on him, but he lands in a full-time ride with AM Racing. Moffitt is no stranger to wrecks on superspeedways, but he almost won this race two years ago and he finished 11th in the summer of 2021 at this track. He’s also finished 17th or better at Talladega on four occasions. If he survives and is there at the end there’s upside, but he’s wrecked a couple times as well so just view him as a Tournament play for now. Update: He will be in my Cash lineup for today's race starting outside the top 30 and he has a chip on his shoulder. Just hoping he can run a clean race and avoid the nonsense we usually see in this series.

Jeb Burton ($7,000)

Jeb Burton is a great superspeedway racer and he’s on a team whose owner is a good superspeedway racer. I don’t think he’ll need much coaching, but the car should thrive in the draft. Back in 2021 with Kaulig Racing he grabbed a pair of top five finishes here before some less-than-stellar results with Our Motorsports last year. Similarly, Burton’s results at Talladega were better with Kaulig (including a win) than they were last year. If I’m being honest, this equipment is closer to Our Motorsports than Kaulig Racing. But I won’t let that be the deciding factor in whether I roster Burton for Saturday’s race or not. Update: Playable in all formats starting P20.

Jeffrey Earnhardt ($6,800)

I wanted to see where he qualified and he got a decent spot rolling off P24. I might prefer him more in Tournaments since he could yield negative points with a crash. But he was so close to winning Talladega last year in this series and he's in a decent ride this time around with some PD.

Gray Gaulding ($6,400)

Gaulding kind of reminds me of Clay Greenfield from last night’s Truck Series race. He’s a driver that, if he stays clean, he’ll move up through the field and be in contention. But there’s always the risk he wrecks which was the case for Greenfield last night. Gaulding was the runner-up in the summer 2020 race at Daytona and he finished second in the spring Talladega race in 2019. Overall in nine career superspeedway races, he has four top ten finishes, but he also has four finishes outside the top 30. High variance play here that is great for tournaments. Update: Qualified P23 which was a little surprising. I'm fine running him out in all formats. Genuinely think there's top ten upside today if he stays clean.

Kyle Sieg ($5,700)

We have a very small sample size with Kyle Sieg consider we’ve only seen him race part-time in one season. But the results were promising. In this race last year, he started P36 and finished 21st. At Talladega last spring, he started P37 and finished 18th. And then in the summer Daytona race he started P32 and scored his first career top ten. Now just because he avoided the Big One three times last year doesn’t mean he’s automatically safe. But it’s nice to see a young driver survive the war of attrition. 

Joe Graf Jr. ($5,500)

Let’s see what Graf can do in this ride. This isn’t JGR equipment, but it’ll be the same equipment as the Sieg brothers, so it’s not awful. Graf has run seven races at Daytona and wrecked in five of them. Not exactly off to a great start, are we? But he did finish 11th here two years ago and he finished eighth at Talladega last spring. There aren’t a ton of Fords in the field but I do suspect they’ll work with the Toyotas to combat the wave of Chevrolets in this race. Graf could be a nice leverage play for Tournament lineups assuming the DFS community is turned off by his track history. Update: P29 is a good starting spot and he can post a solid DFS return from this starting spot.

Timmy Hill ($5,000)

Timmy Hill was a very popular value play last night, and rightfully so. After starting P32 in last night’s Truck Series race, Hill moved up and finished 16th as the race was called due to weather. We should see Hill qualify in a similar spot today and dare I say he has maybe more upside here? In all 12 of his Xfinity races at Daytona he’s never finished outside the top 25, but he has ten finishes in the top 20, six in the top 11, and last summer at Daytona he finished second to Jeremy Clements. He’s also finished in the top 15 a few times at Talladega. I will say that I probably prefer Hill more in Cash games than Tournaments. Everyone will know that he has upside here and is a fairly safe play. If building multiple tournament lineups there are other ways you can differentiate your build in this range so I would likely just use Hill in your Cash lineups. Update: Do not play Hill. He did not qualify.

David Starr ($4,700)

Starr isn’t going to break the slate (although he could), but he has plenty of experience. In 18 races, he does have seven top 20 finishes and some similar results at Talladega. This is an equipment upgrade with Our Motorsports so I’m curious to see how well he can run in better equipment as long as he doesn’t wreck. Not a slam dunk here, but I wouldn’t rule him out for Cash games assuming he’ll start pretty far back.

Value Pivots

This range is filled with good plays. If playing Cash games you could probably play it safe leaving a ton of salary on the table and just stacking the back. Jesse Iwuji starts dead last and can't get you negative points but his ceiling might be finishing 25th and just passing everyone that wrecks out. Any driver starting P25 and further back is very much in play in Cash games since so many studs qualified in the top 20. But my top plays will be Moffitt (mentioned above), Kyle Sieg, Bayley Currey, Kaz Grala, Jeremy Clements (won here last summer), Ryan Ellis, and Joey Gase.

NASCAR DFS Core Plays

The Core Plays will be published and posted in the NASCAR DFS Discord Channel around 4:00pm ET.

 

Be sure to check out this week's NASCAR DFS Podcast as Matt Selz and I break down the Daytona 500 with some lineup building, and betting advice for Sunday's kickoff to the 2023 NASCAR Cup Season.