NASCAR DFS Playbook Alsco Uniforms 300: Justin Allgaier On The Front Row

The NASCAR Xfinity Series joins the Craftsman Truck Series and the NASCAR Cup Series in Las Vegas this weekend for the first “cookie cutter” intermediate track of the 2023 season. Given that this is Sin City, it’s no surprise that Kyle Busch is running all three races in front of his hometown crowd. But this race will also have Tyler Reddick who ran last week’s Xfinity Series race at Auto Club but had some issues. Busch and Reddick make for the two Cup Series drivers in this race. Given that NASCAR is in town and UFC 285 and the return of Jon “Bones” Bones will take place on Saturday, this is a phenomenal sports weekend to head to Sin City, but let’s dive into the drivers and DFS strategies for Saturday’s Alsco Uniforms 300!

Judging by some screenshots from last night’s Truck Series race it looks like some of you have a little extra bankroll for Saturday’s race. I passed out before the end of the race, but it was a nice surprise to see an extra $350 in my DraftKings account this morning. And as we look back on roster construction, we had the right value plays attached with Kyle Busch. Even Spencer Boyd paid off at the lowly price of $4,500. Let that just be a reminder/lesson for you. Let’s say you have a lineup with five drivers you absolutely love, but you’re hesitant to play it because you can only afford the cheapest driver in the field as your final play… By all means just roll out that lineup with the low-cost punt and see what happens. That was the case with almost all my Kyle Busch lineups last night. I had several combinations of Busch/Boyd/Gutierrez/Garcia simply because that was the only way I could make those builds work and it paid off with almost 1,100% ROI.

This is a full-blown Playbook for Saturday’s Xfinity Series race. We had practice and qualifying on Friday so don’t expect too many updates for this Playbook since we know the starting order. The Driver Pool is set and the Core Plays are also listed at the bottom. 

Practice Notes

NASCAR DFS Driver Pool

Kyle Busch ($13,500; P11)

Kyle Busch is on fire right now. He came close to winning the Daytona 500, but took the 8-car for Richard Childress Racing to victory lane last week at Auto Club and now he’s on his home track running all three races this weekend and he won Friday’s Truck Series race. After “retiring” from the Xfinity Series in 2021, he makes his return in 2023 in the 10-car for Kaulig Racing. Let’s not forget what happened two years ago in the Xfinity Series where Kyle Busch ran in five races… He won all five races. It’s been four years since he ran a Vegas race in the Xfinity Series, but hey he won that last one too. In 14 of his last 17 Xfinity Series races he’s finished third or better with ten wins. Similar to the Truck Series race he is very difficult to fade so more power to you if you decide to go that route. If there’s one caveat I’ll add it’s that the Kaulig cars were just “so so” last year on intermediates. And this was after A.J. Allmendinger was phenomenal on these tracks in 2021. With the expansion of the Cup Series team, it’s come at the expense of the Xfinity cars. However, we’re talking about Kyle Busch, one of the greatest drivers of all time. Busch carries plenty of win equity and dominator upside. But there may be more cause to go lighter with exposure than Friday’s race. Busch was by far in the best equipment last night. That may not be the case for today’s race as he qualified outside the top ten and did note that he wished he could’ve seen the car prior to arriving in Vegas so he could’ve given input on the setup. He’ll drop to the rear at the start of the race for going to a backup car so if he does dominate the race it may not come until later on.

Justin Allgaier ($10,800; P2)

It was truly a tossup between JHN, Allgaier, and Custer. Originally I had Custer written up until I remembered he has to go to the rear going to a backup car. I don’t want to write up too many drivers up top but you won’t get an argument from me on anyone in this price range. All have the ability to dominate the race. Custer seems very pleased with his car. We didn’t really get to see it in the long run, unlike JHN and Allgaier, but Custer logged the third-fastest lap in practice, but I ultimately prefer Allgaier because he’s on the front row and just needs to get around Smith to start collecting dominator points. In three of his last six races here, Allgaier’s led at least 60 laps so it’s really your prerogative on how you want to allocate exposure in the top tier.

Josh Berry ($10,200; P5)

Berry is fresh off a top five finish last week at Auto Club and he has two wins in four career Xfinity Series races at Vegas. Take this however you want it, but those two wins were in the Fall race, not the Spring race but either way, Berry will be popular in Tournaments because of his win equity. He was also dominant at Charlotte last year winning the first stage, finishing second in stage two, then pulling out the win with 89 laps led over Memorial Day Weekend. It’s unlikely you can fit him in your Kyle Busch lineups, but he works for two-dominator lineups if fading Busch. Berry is another driver that will go to the rear for going to a backup car. Ideally you can play Berry and Allgaier and, in theory, you have Allgaier get the early dominator points as Berry works his way back up through the field to contend later on.

Tyler Reddick ($9,800; P15)

Reddick might be the second-best driver in the field but he’s only the sixth-most expensive? He’s a full-time Cup driver and has win equity. I guess he’s discounted because of the equipment and last week’s performance? Whatever the reasoning, I can’t pass him up for this race. He hits 5X value with a top five finish and that’s with zero dominator points as well. If he gets to the front, which he can, he can elevate his ceiling. He took Big Machine to victory lane last year and the Sam Hunt Racing equipment isn’t bad so there’s still some win equity here.

Brandon Jones ($9,000; P19)

Great spot for Brandon Jones. He’s always a wild card with plenty of variance, but the starting spot offers a little more comfort than normal. He has some win equity in this Jr. Motorsports ride and this is also his home track. In general, he’s done well to run inside the top ten but the finishes haven’t been outstanding. In a dozen races here he’s finish third on two separate occasions while grabbing a total of nine top tens. He does have a pair of wins at Kansas which is a very close comparison to Vegas. He’s basically hitting value with a top ten finish so I’m fine with him in all formats. Jones will have to drop to the rear for the backup car but he’s still a fine play.

Chandler Smith ($7,900; P1)

I’m very interested in Smith this week. Kyle Busch will be driving the 10-car for Kaulig Racing and Smith drove for Kyle Busch Motorsports in the Truck Series. Just one year ago he won at Vegas in a race where you can probably argue that Busch let him win. But if he hitches himself to Busch and works his way through the field, I do think there’s upside for Smith. He’s looked pretty comfortable so far in the Xfinity Series especially after scoring a top five last week at Auto Club. Smith was consistently strong on the comparable tracks in the Truck Series and with his former boss serving as a teammate this week, I’d say he’s good for a strong finish so long as he doesn’t wreck and I think he could steal some dominator points as well, which is a little easier to project now that he qualified on the pole. Don’t play him in Cash games though, just get a little exposure in Tournaments in case he can pull away from Allgaier & Co.

Joe Graf Jr. ($7,700; P17)

I’m not going to fall over myself rushing to plug him into my builds, but we should give credit where it’s due, he finished seventh at Daytona and 11^th last week at Auto Club where he was in Joe Gibbs equipment. He’s back in the 19-car once again this week. At Vegas, in lesser equipment, he does have a pair of top 20 finishes in five races but overall his performances on intermediate tracks aren’t all that great. But he does get a bit of a boost because of the equipment he’s in and he proved last week he can finish well and I wouldn’t rule him out for a top ten this week.

Kaz Grala ($7,600; P21)

I initially had Brett Moffitt in this spot but then he went and qualified in the top five so sadly he’s unplayable given the drivers that likely pass him. But Grala takes his place. Grala’s in the 26-car for Sam Hunt Racing and he’s coming off a 13^th place finish last week at Auto Club. He got some track time last night in the Truck Series race where he finished 17^th, but we know he’s a good driver that has top ten upside. He doesn’t have too much experience on intermediates but given last week’s result and his performance last night, I won’t hesitate to go here again. I also think Ryan Sieg is a good play and he saves you a little money. He has shown top ten upside plenty of times, but that’s arguably his ceiling.

Jeremy Clements ($6,800; P25)

We don’t really see Clements start this far back on too many occasions, but we’ll take it since he’s a nice value play now. Usually he qualifies the car very well, like inside the top 15, so we’ll enjoy this starting spot while we have it at our disposal. In his last five races at Vegas he’s wrecked once but in the other four he’s finished 15^th, 11^th, 17^th, and 13^th. He’s posted similar results at Kansas as well so I feel pretty good about him potentially finishing top 15 once again but he’s even returning value with a 17^th place finish.

Kyle Weatherman ($6,400; P26)

It was announced on Wednesday that Weatherman would be stepping into the 02-car for Our Motorsports over David Starr and that’s a pretty nice upgrade for Our Motorsports. Weatherman is a very good driver, but he’s just never had a real shot in great equipment. He had a handful of top 20 finishes with Mike Harmon’s team back in 2020 and 2021. Then last year he did a few races with DGM before settling in with Jesse Iwuji Motorsports. It was always frustrating when Weatherman would qualify the car and Iwuji would run it while fans and DFS players would call for Weatherman to get more opportunities. This Our Motorsports car is still not elite, but it can’t be any worse than Jesse Iwuji’s car and Weatherman drove that ride to a top 15 at Vegas last Fall. There is a little variance here and nothing’s a guarantee, but it does look like Weatherman is shaping up to be a nice DFS option for Saturday’s race.

Kyle Sieg ($6,100; P22)

DraftKings elevated Sieg’s price tag but not enough for me to completely fade. Sieg is off to a similar start in 2023 that he got off to in 2022. Last year he started the year with finishes of 21^st, 18^th, and 16^th at Daytona, Auto Club, and Vegas. So far this year he’s finished 21^st at Daytona and 15^th at Auto Club. He hasn’t flashed much top ten upside, but he is better than the price tag suggests with top 15 upside. I wouldn’t hesitate to go  here again in Tournaments, and he may not carry a ton of ownership given the outlook of other drivers in this range.

Ryan Ellis ($5,800; P36)

Here’s a very brief acknowledgment for Ryan Ellis. The sample size is very small on intermediates because he’s been a part-time racer in recent years. “Recent form,” if such a thing exists in NASCAR, hasn’t been great so far this year but we’re only two races into the 2023 schedule. With Alpha Prime Racing last year he finished 13^th and both Vegas and Charlotte. Take that with a grain of salt but perhaps he is more comfortable on these cookie cutter tri-ovals. I feel obligated to mention him just to offer another value play to mix into your builds so we all aren’t overweight on any driver down here that can easily bust.

Jeffrey Earnhardt ($5,500; P35)

Earnhardt is a decent driver but just has never really had an opportunity in good equipment so his results don’t necessarily stand out. Maybe I’m still buying in to Alpha Prime being an okay team that was mostly just looking for drivers that had funding last year. But Earnhardt is one of the better drivers they’ve put behind a wheel. He only has one top 20 finish in six career races and truthfully I didn’t have plans to write him up, but he’s starting 35^th and if he can move up ten spots and finish 25^th then that’s roughly 5X value. Both Ellis and Earnhardt were very slow in practice so be aware that they may need nonsense to move up. Luckily this is the Xfinity Series where chaos reigns supreme.

Josh Williams ($5,400; P27)

I’m a sucker for this guy. Anytime the writing is on the wall and he seems like a play that could return 5X-6X value, I fall for it. And this is shaping up to be one of those weeks. Williams raced at Vegas in the Fall and finished outside the top 30. That’s not great. However, he’s raced here eight other times since 2018 and in those races he has an average finish of 18.25 and even if you account for last year’s dud, he still has an average finish of 20^th. Is that good? Honestly, for Josh Williams’ standards, yeah probably. We can’t draw too many comparisons between Auto Club and Vegas, but Williams started ninth last week and finished 16^th and hung around the top 20 for most of the race while finishing on the lead lap. That’s an encouraging sign for Williams and he’s a driver to mix into a variety of your Tournament builds, but don’t go too heavy here.

C.J. McLaughlin ($4,800; P38)

McLaughlin is probably Saturday’s version of Spencer Boyd. He starts dead last so he can’t kill you with negative points and he’s under $5,000. Honestly, I’d be happy with him finishing 30^th because that would be 20 points on DraftKings. We can’t get too greedy if spending down in this range because they’re this cheap for a reason. In four races here he’s finished 30^th, 24^th, 31^st, and 32^nd so you know what you’re getting, but he’s an okay play because he’s a punt that can’t give you negative points. He did go around in practice that brought out a caution so I’m hoping this isn’t a situation where the team parks the car after a few laps. I won’t include him in the Core Plays, but I wouldn’t fault you for playing him in Cash games. I’ll still mix him into a few Tournament builds because of the safety net. Update: C.J. McLaughlin is now ruled OUT for today's race. Joey Gase is probably the pivot if you need to punt this low.

NASCAR DFS Core Plays