The NASCAR Xfinity Series rolls back through Atlanta for the second time in 2022 under the new configuration of Atlanta Motor Speedway. I’m a sucker for tire wear and strategy so it does bum me out to see old Atlanta in the rearview mirror. However, we did get some exciting race four months ago at Atlanta and both the Xfinity Series and NASCAR Cup Series should put on quite the show this weekend as long as the weather cooperates. Ty Gibbs got the inaugural “new” Atlanta win earlier in the year and he’s coming off a big win at Road America last week. Can he keep his streak alive?
I don’t quite know how much in-depth analysis I can provide for this race. Obviously, I’ll be pulling data and results from March’s race but the conditions for Saturday’s action will be brutal. The temperature is going to be over 90 degrees but the National Weather Series says the heat index will feel like it’s over 100. So the track will be slicker and there’s rain in the forecast.
In the one race we saw with Atlanta’s new configuration, NASCAR successfully made a drafting-style track on a 1.5-mile tri-oval. But it’s still not a full superspeedway. In the races back in March we did see that it was easier for the leader to hold the lead up front. Fastest laps were dispersed like a superspeedway race, but laps led fell to just a few drivers and they were able to hold the lead easier.
PD still played a big role in DFS success last time out. Half the drivers that finished in the top 12 gained at least six spots of positive PD. Additionally, five drivers that started inside the top ten finished outside the top 25. So as far as lineup construction goes, I’m approaching it like it’s a superspeedway by targeting PD and taking some chances on two guys starting inside the top 20. Cash games are viable today if you want to stack the back. I’m only making three lineups for both the Xfinity and Cup races because this style of racing isn’t my favorite for DFS.
No practice notes to observe since they aren’t practicing for today’s race.
Driver Pool
Update: Qualifying was cancelled for this race so the lineup and starting order will be determined by “the metric,” so that means points, last week’s results, etc. Because of this, I may be a little brief with the write-up today. We don’t have practice or qualifying and teams don’t know what they have with their cars. Fortunately, it is a drafting race so that may not matter. But there are too many unknowns today so I would advise playing a bit lighter than usual. I’m not loving how this race is shaking up.
A.J. Allmendinger ($11,200) The salary won’t be as restrictive for today’s race since you can leave money on the table. You just need to decide if you want to pay up for someone that’ll likely start pretty close to the front. Kaulig Racing has had speed concerns all season long, but I tend to throw those worries out the window when Dinger is on a superspeedway or a road course. Dinger finished second at Daytona to kick off the year and he followed that up with third place finishes at both Atlanta and Talladega. Perfectly fine GPP play but he is starting P3. I don’t think I’d bother in Cash games.
Tyler Reddick ($10,500) Good play on paper given that the lineup was determined by the scoring metric. So that puts the 48-car for Big Machine Racing outside the top 20 but in the middle of a wreck early on if there is one. I may go underweight here because I do think he’ll see significant ownership and we’ve seen this car bust at times.
Austin Hill ($10,300) You have to assess the risk with Hill. RCR will likely show up with speed and the right setup for this track. Hill started on the front row at both Daytona and Talladega. He’d go on to win Daytona, while finishing 27th at Dega. He did come in second in this race earlier this year but you have to assume the team qualifies well if they can even get qualifying in this morning. Sheldon Creed is also in consideration given the PD but he’s had some awful luck this season.
Daniel Hemric ($9,300) He’s a decent plate racer even if the results haven’t been there this year. He starts P16 so there is some PD on his side. Similarly, Ryan Truex is a good play for a bit cheaper, but he offers more PD.
Landon Cassill ($8,900) Cassill starts just inside the top 20, but still in the middle of the pack so he’s at risk of an early wreck if there is one. Cassill is a pretty good plate racer and he’s a guy I’ll be targeting tomorrow for the Cup Series race. This year with Kaulig Racing he’s finished 14th at Daytona, fifth at Atlanta, and fourth at Talladega. I’d like to see Kaulig running together by the end of stage three so if you have the guts to play two or three of them together, by all means go for it.
Myatt Snider ($7,600) Snider will start deep enough in the field to be playable on Saturday. P26 lends himself to some PD and we know he has upside if he stays clean. He grabbed a top ten at Talladega earlier in the year but wasn’t particularly great at Daytona or Atlanta the first time around.
Jeffrey Earnhardt ($7,500) Earnhardt is always in play when we get this kind of racing. So far this year he’s finished top 15 at Daytona, Atlanta, and Talladega and who could forget his magical run to the pole at Dega and almost winning the race with Larry Mac as his crew chief? Not to mention he was in the 3-car paying homage to his grandfather, Dale Sr. Still love him for today’s race even if there’s no nostalgia.
Brandon Brown ($7,300) It’s a drafting race so Brown is in play. His form is coming around as well. Prior to last week’s race at Road America he had rattled off four straight finishes of 17th or better. He won at Talladega last year in a weekend where truly anybody could get a win as we saw Tate Fogleman, Brandon Brown, and Bubba Wallace score their first career wins that week.
Jeb Burton ($7,100) Burton is a good plate racer. He won Talladega last year when he was with Kaulig, but now he’s with Our Motorsports. They’re a fine team, but nowhere near Kaulig. Fortunately, equipment doesn’t really matter this weekend! Burton starting P27 and finished in the top 20 at Daytona. He also finished 15th at both Daytona and Talladega. If track position is there for him at the end of the race, he could make a run for it but he’s got to be up there. If he runs in the middle of the field all day he’s putting himself at risk of wrecking.
JJ Yeley ($6,500) Yeley can thrive on this style of track. He finished 13th at Daytona and he was 11th earlier in the year at the first Atlanta race. He’s also finished in the top 20 in each of his last six races at Daytona and he has four top 11 finishes in his last seven races at Talladega.
Kyle Sieg ($6,000) Purely a PD play. He started outside the top 30 at Daytona, Atlanta, and Talladega and he finished 21st at Daytona, 24th at Atlanta, and 18th at Talladega. There’s some solid upside at this price tag.
Ryan Vargas ($4,900) Fan favorite Ryan Vargas, is a driver I typically only play at plate races. He finished top 20 at Daytona, Atlanta, and Talladega this year but he was also starting further up in the field so he wasn’t a great DFS play. However, if he starts deep in the field on Saturday due to qualifying being rained out then he becomes a good play if he can survive the war of attrition and move up.
Core Plays
I’m on the fence if I’ll be doing Core Plays since qualifying was cancelled and the field is set based on the metric scoring. This is a horrible scenario for building lineups at this type of race. Check back in the NASCAR DFS Discord for updates, but I’m not excited about this race.