NASCAR DFS Playbook A-GAME 200: Justin Allgaier, The King Of Concrete

Last week’s superspeedway action didn’t disappoint although the Cup Series race was a snooze-fest until the end. But Jeb Burton scored his second career win at Talladega and the first for Jordan Anderson Racing. Burton and Parker Retzlaff have certainly gotten the most out of the equipment with that team and they’re proving the JAR equipment can contend. With Talladega in the rearview, we head back to another “short” track, but a unique one at that as the NASCAR Cup Series and Xfinity Series head north to Dover International Speedway for some action at the Monster Mile!

Dover is a one-mile track in a perfect oval shape similar to Miami-Homestead, although the latter track is larger in size. Dover was re-paved in 1995 with concrete making it one of the few tracks on the schedule that isn’t paved with asphalt. There are nine degrees of banking on the straights with 24 degrees in the turns. So it truly is a unique track. You can try and make comparisons to tracks like Bristol, Darlington, Miami-Homestead, and possibly Nashville since it’s another concrete track. But overall, there aren’t many direct comparisons to Dover so track history and recent form are what we’re mostly looking at for Saturday’s Xfinity Series race, especially since practice and qualifying were rained out.

Weather will be an issue in Dover this weekend. With practice and qualifying cancelled, the lineup is set by the metric and we have a lot of chalk available to us. Saturday seems a little more promising to actually get the race in with a 50-60% of rain throughout the day. Sunday does seem problematic even for the Cup Series. Overall, it’s looking wet in the First State this weekend. Could we possibly see a doubleheader on Monday? Possibly but I won’t hold my breath unless it’s an absolute monsoon this weekend and I am optimistic they can race on Saturday.

Lineup Construction will likely require two dominators for most builds. However, if NASCAR finds a window to get this race in, it’s possible they just try to get the first two stages in which would minimize the dominator points and in that case one-dom builds come into play if we’re missing out on half the laps. From there you just want the winner and the collector of most of the laps led including the PD plays. But if they can get all 200 laps in, most lineup construction will require two-dominator builds and honestly, you should consider some three-dom builds as well and here’s why. In the last two races there were three drivers to lead at least 45 laps and typically getting out front here translates to fastest laps as well. In 2020, NASCAR ran a doubleheader to compensate for the races lost due to COVID and in those races we saw one dominator so that year is a bit of an outlier. Now given that this is a shorter track on the schedule, don’t be too surprised if half the field finishes a lap down. Keep that in mind when building. PD upside could be capped for lower-tier teams. Last year Ryan Sieg started P38 and finished tenth, but he’s not exactly in poor equipment. He was the only driver to start outside the top 30 and finish inside the top 20. In 2021, J.J. Yeley started P31 and finished 14^th. Again, he was the lone driver to start outside the top 30 and finish in the top 20. 

NASCAR DFS Driver Pool

Austin Hill ($11,300; Starting P6)

I truly hope Austin Hill is low-owned this week. He started the year with three wins in the first five races. Over his last four? He has just one top ten. But there’s still speed in the car and he’s in a position to get some dominator points. I don’t think we’ll see significant ownership because there are other expensive drivers with win equity that offer PD and the front row features Cole Custer and Parker Kligerman. It’s entirely possible they attract more ownership simply for being on the front row. But Hill can still find his way to the front. I don’t think you need to play him in Cash games, but he is a favorite dominator candidate because the price tag could scare people away when they can pay down for more PD and similar win equity.

Josh Berry ($10,800; Starting P19)

Berry only has two career races at Dover, but he did win last year’s race and he finished second in 2021. He’s led 103 total laps between both races and posted driver ratings of at least 130.0 in each contest. He’s been one of the more consistent drivers on non-superspeedway tracks so far this year and he’ll be pulling double duty as he steps into the 48-car in the Cup Series with Alex Bowman on the shelf for the next few weeks. There’s clear dominator potential and win equity with this play.

John Hunter Nemechek ($10,500; Starting P22)

It’s never fun writing up all the expensive drivers, but I’d be an idiot if I didn’t mention why each one is in play, especially JHN. This is what happens when there’s awful weather following a superspeedway race and we lose practice and qualifying. JHN doesn’t have great track history here, but he’s looked outstanding this year considering he already has two wins and two other runner-up finishes. He’ll likely spend most of stage one moving up through the field, but if he strategizes properly for track position he could collect dominator points later on. That’s the case with a lot of these studs starting outside the top 20.

Justin Allgaier ($10,200; Starting P18)

Allgaier may very well be the king of concrete. His recent track record here is just bonkers with two career wins and a ton of laps led. Over his last 12 races here dating back to 2016, he’s finished in the top four in ten of them. He’s finished in the top three in seven of his last eight races here and he’s led at least 60 laps in five of those races. Now we mention him being the king of concrete because he also won last year’s race at Nashville and he finished second there the year before. He’s a similar play to his teammate, Josh Berry, but at a $600 discount.

Cole Custer ($9,900; Starting P2)

It hasn’t been a great year for Custer by any means, but he does enter Dover with three straight finishes in the top five and he’ll start on the front row next to Parker Kligerman and I’m more inclined to think Custer can get around him and potentially win the first stage. In six Xfinity races at Dover, Custer has five finishes in the top eight and he led at least 30 laps in the last three races. It also doesn’t hurt that he scored a win here in the Fall of 2019. Dover was also one of his best tracks in his run in the Cup Series with an average finish of 11.5 and an average starting position of 22.8 and he gained at least ten spots of PD in three of those races. Given that he’s starting on the front row, he’ll probably carry at least 25-30% ownership in Tournaments.

Sam Mayer and Sammy Smith ($8,800)

Time for another addition of “The Sammich” as both drivers are priced at $8,800 this week. That’s kind of weird, right? Not that it’s out of the ordinary for two options in DFS to have the same price tag. We see it in PGA, MLB, NBA, NHL, and NFL DFS all the time. But we rarely see it in NASCAR since the player pool is condensed. But the Sams have appeal this week, most notably Sam Mayer (Starting P24). Mayer has had his struggles this year and he’s entering Dover with three straight finishes outside the top 15. So we don’t need to play Mayer as a dark horse dominator candidate. He’s probably returning value with a top 12 finish and he did manage to finish fifth in this race a year ago. Let’s also not forget that his teammates, Justin Allgaier and Josh Berry, are very good at this track as well. Sammy Smith (Starting P28) is another PD play as he’ll start P28. But he’s still in great equipment and has a little more win equity than Mayer. While Smith has a win and three top five finishes in his last three races this season, he’s finished outside the top 15 in his other six races. Regardless both drivers at this $8,800 price tag are live in all formats given the equipment and the fact they should move up through the field.

Ryan Sieg ($8,000; Starting P20)

This is an elevated price tag for Sieg but I think we can still play him in this spot given that he starts P20. Dover is one of his better tracks. He’s raced here 16 times dating back to 2014 and he’s never finished worse than 20^th. In five of his last six races at Dover he’s finished 12^th or better. Do I wish he was a little bit cheaper? Yes, but he’s pretty much returning value with another top 12 finish, but I don’t think he does enough to get us 6X value unless he can strategize for track position and manage to lead some laps as well while finishing in the top ten roughly. If he finishes 8^th or better then he’s returning GPP value without any dominators. He’s a good play, but not necessarily a slate breaker.

Anthony Alfredo ($7,600; Starting P31)

Alfredo has cooled off a bit after getting off to a very nice start to the season where he logged a handful of top 20’s despite driving for BJ McLeod’s team. A lot of folks might see his previous results and get excited. In three races here he’s finished 11^th, 13^th, and 15^th but that was in better equipment. But Alfredo is a driver with more funding than what we normally see from BJ McLeod’s drivers and we know he has some talent as well. Starting outside the top 30 gives him a good floor this week. Assuming he doesn’t collect a single dominator point, he’s returning 5X value with a top 18 finish which is well within reason. He is viable in all formats, but I really don’t think too many DFS players will land on him in Cash games given that Mayer and Smith offer such a great floor from where they’re starting.

Kaz Grala ($7,300; Starting P26)

I think Grala is okay for Cash Games this week, but there’s potential for him to really drag down your Tournament lineups. He’s starting outside the top 25 and most will flock to that PD, but at this price tag you really need at minimum 35 fantasy points and he’s only done that twice all year. He’s a good driver, but this is a track where it’s possible he could be lapped and not capitalize on the PD available to him. He only has one top 20 finish in three races at Dover and that came way back in a brief stint with RCR. I’d feel better about playing him in Tournaments if he was cheaper, but I want to see some consistency out of him before I believe he can help take down a Tournament. For now, he offers a good enough floor for Cash games. 

Derek Kraus ($7,100; Starting P13)

There isn’t a ton of analysis needed for Kraus this week, but I am surprised the discount we’re getting on DraftKings after he was at least $7,500 the three weeks prior. A poor result at Talladega drops his price $400-$500? Alright, we’ll take it. Earlier this month Kraus grabbed top ten finishes at Richmond and Martinsville, and while they don’t compare well to Dover it’s a good sign that he can hold his own in this series and grab a top ten. He’s returning 37 points with another top ten finish this week and if he can maybe finish 7^th he’s giving us 6X value. He’s more of a Tournament play this week because of some more expensive drivers offering more PD so I don’t think you can fit him in, but I really like this play in Tournaments because he’s in a car that can stay on the lead lap and as I just said, we’ve seen the top ten potential from him. He grabbed top tens in his two previous races in the Truck Series at Dover as well.

Corey Heim ($6,800; Starting P36)

Heim should be the chalk in this range. He’s a very good driver and one of the few young, talented drivers under contract with Toyota. Dare I say there’s potentially a place for him with JGR once MTJ or Denny Hamlin decide to retire? It’s possible, but he’s still years away from the Cup Series, but he’s been solid in the Trucks. This week he gets to run Dover with Sam Hunt Racing as he makes his Xfinity Series debut. This equipment is identical to Kaz Grala’s ride so there’s probably top 20 potential. The big thing for Heim is the starting spot outside the top 30 that will attract Cash game players. He’s never run Dover before and without practice, that’s somewhat concerning and it’s probably why I’m fine with him as a Cash game play, but not ecstatic for Tournaments. I think there are other ways to get creative in Tournaments and will let others eat the chalk.

Kyle Weatherman ($5,700; Starting P35)

Easily one of the best pure drivers in this value range as he always gets the most of his equipment as long as it holds up. Weatherman’s in the 02-car for Our Motorsports and he does have some top 20 finishes from earlier in the year at Vegas and Phoenix. The results lately haven’t been great, but he’ll likely start very deep in the field and even if he finishes off the lead lap, there’s still a path for him to pay off the price tag with a top 25 finish.

Stefan Parsons ($5,400; Starting P38)

No doubt, he will get lapped but he starts dead last and can’t get you negative points. He’ll be in the 07-car for SS Greenlight Racing which isn’t a great team, but we actually saw Parsons string together decent results a year ago with Alpha Prime Racing and that equipment is comparable to this ride. He’s only run two races this year so the sample size is small but he’s affordable and can’t give you negative PD. However, if he somehow manages to survive and finish 27^th or 28^th then he’s giving you 5X value.

Jeffrey Earnhardt ($5,000; Starting P33)

I have to be honest, I’d prefer Ryan Ellis because he’s shown more consistency and has provided more in DFS. The problem is that Ellis is $6,500 while Earnhardt saves us $1,500 and offers more PD. Both drivers probably get lapped, but I’ll take the discount on the driver offering more PD so if they do get lapped, I can hopefully squeeze a few more points out of Earnhardt. Earnhardt didn’t run Dover last year, but he had previous success here with JD Motorsports. In six races here he’s finished 21^st or better four times. Not to mention, he’s gained at least nine spots of PD four separate occasions as well. So he’s a fine punt in this range based on track history. But I will provide the counter argument that he hasn’t looked as good this year. He has an average finish of 27.1 on the year, but maybe that’s dragged down by the two DNF’s from Atlanta-1 and Talladega. Prior to Dega he finished in the top 20 at both Richmond and Martinsville and he finished 25^th after starting P36 at COTA. These aren’t phenomenal results, but for a driver at $5K there is a little comfort he can return 5X value even if he does lose the lead lap.

Timmy Hill ($4,900; Starting P37)

Timmy Hill starts second-to-last with Stefan Parsons being the driver bringing up the rear. In 19 career Xfinity starts at Dover, Hill has an average finish of 29.1 and that is not very good. However, let’s say he finishes 29^th in this race then he’s getting you over 20 fantasy points and that’s 4X value at this price tag. That’s not great, but the 66-car for MBM is likely going to get lapped early. You just need Timmy Hill to do what Timmy Hill does best, and that’s stay out of the way and run a clean race even if he loses laps. He can still grab a top 30 finish and not kill your Tournament lineups.

NASCAR DFS Core Plays

Below are the Cash game core plays as well at Tournament pivots. Cash game drivers are still eligible for Tournaments and there are a ton of ways to go about building lineups for Saturday’s race. Hit me up in the NASCAR DFS Discord channel if you have any questions.