Kyle Larson collected his second win of the season last week at Kansas Speedway. Both his wins this season have come during the playoffs and the defending Cup Series champion looks to be peaking at the most opportune time. Larson led 235 laps in a dominating effort at Kansas. And now were turn the calendar and kick off the October portion of the schedule at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

This track is the closest comparison to Kansas that we get so naturally Kyle Larson is going to be a contender as he looks to defend his title. Three of the first four playoff races have seen practice and qualifying get rained out. That isn’t the case this weekend so we have plenty of data and track history to analyze for the latest version of our NASCAR DFS picks.

We have all your coverage with the NASCAR DFS Playbook for DraftKings and FanDuel in addition to the NASCAR DFS Projections and the NASCAR DFS Ownership outlook. Let’s dive in and take a look at the top NASCAR DFS picks and lineup building strategies on DraftKings and FanDuel as we get ready for the South Point 400!

 

 

 

Las Vegas Motor Speedway

Sin City plays host for the fifth race of the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs. With last week’s win, Kyle Larson extended his lead to 26 points over Denny Hamlin and he has all the momentum in the world heading into Vegas. But we still have six races to go and with this playoff format, anything could happen.

Las Vegas Motor Speedway is another 1.5-mile tri-oval that most closely compares to Kansas. We have 20 degrees of banking in the turns, with nine degrees on the front-and-back stretches. And it’s always worth mentioning whenever we race here that the track surface continues to get older. The year-round weather conditions are constantly blowing sand across the track, so tire wear seems to come into play a little more each race. 

 

 

 

NASCAR DraftKings and FanDuel Scoring Trends with DFS Strategy

The strategy for our NASCAR DFS picks doesn’t change too much from last week. And to be honest, it won’t change for next week’s race either. This stretch of the playoffs includes Kansas, Vegas, and Charlotte. These three tracks are comparable to some degree so the DFS strategy doesn’t change.

We’re slated for 267 laps. Based on the trends table in the previous section, we’re aiming for at least two dominators. A lot of win equity comes from the first few rows. The last five winners at this track have all come from drivers starting inside the top 10. Moreover, 82.8% of the laps led in that span have come from drivers in the first five rows. Targeting multiple dominators makes sense even if one driver emerges to lead 120+ laps. In each of the last four races at Vegas, we’ve seen at least three drivers lead 20+ laps. In three of those four races, we’ve seen two drivers lead 50+ laps.

Based on pricing for this week’s race, it really isn’t hard to fit two or three dominator candidates in your NASCAR DFS lineups. There’s value to be found that offers position differential and top 20 upside.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks & Strategy: South Point 400

 

NASCAR South Point 400 Top Tier DFS Picks

Kyle Larson (Starting P6) – DraftKings: $11,500 | FanDuel: $13,500

Kyle Larson is heating up at the absolute best time. He’s won two of the four playoff races so far, while finishing second and fifth in the other two races. He’s also racking up dominator points at a ridiculous clip. Last week at Kansas, he led 235 laps and collected 88 fastest laps on his way to the win. And as fate would have it, we’re now heading to Vegas which is the most comparable track to Kansas.

Larson has won twice at Vegas in the NextGen era. In fact, he’s led 60+ laps at this track in six of the last seven races here dating back to the start of the 2023 season. Even a year ago, in this very race, he finished as the runner-up with 129 laps led.

Larson was fastest in 10-lap averages and took his car off the track without going for a longer run so that tells me he’s pretty satisfied with the setup for the South Point 400 and our NASCAR DFS picks.

Denny Hamlin (Starting P1) – DraftKings: $11,000 | FanDuel: $14,000

The first four races of the postseason haven’t been great for Hamlin. But he’s still in second place in the standings so he has time to turn things around. Hamlin’s car was arguably top five in practice on Saturday but that should be the expectation each week.

Hamlin’s started on the front row in each of the last two Vegas races and he won both. A year ago he was on the pole but led only nine laps. But at the end of the day, he still won the race. Then this past spring he started P2 and led 134 laps.

He’s only led two laps in the last three races but he has the luxury of starting on the front row for this race. My biggest concern for Hamlin’s track position mostly has to do with who is starting around him. Christopher Bell and Chase Briscoe start in row two. And Kyle Larson is in row three. Briscoe and Larson were better in practice and have led more laps of late. So Hamlin is a fine play because he should finish top five if he runs a clean race. But he’ll have some work to do to hold the lead early on.

Christopher Bell (Starting P3) – DraftKings: $10,700 | FanDuel: $13,000

Bell has been rather quiet since scoring the win at Darlington to kick off the playoffs. He’s led just one lap over the last three races. However, he’s bringing fast cars to the track every weekend. In each of the last three races, he’s recorded double-digit fastest laps.

I am leaning more into the track history with Bell than the practice speeds. Truth be told, Chase Briscoe was faster than him across a few metrics in practice on Saturday. But Bell has finished top five in five of the last seven races at Vegas. Specifically in the playoff Vegas races, he finished third a year ago and he was the runner-up in 2023 and 2024. He starts with great track position and this is a track where tire management comes into play at a certain point and he just won at a high tire wear track four weeks ago.

Chase Briscoe (Starting P4) – DraftKings: $9,900 | FanDuel: $12,500

So if you recall from last week’s NASCAR DFS picks, you’ll remember that part of the appeal with Briscoe heading into Kansas was how much his results got better once joining Joe Gibbs Racing. A similar argument can be made for Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

Briscoe has finished top eight in back-to-back races at Vegas. A year ago, he started P2 and led 57 laps on his way to finishing fourth. Even a week ago, at the most comparable track to Vegas, Briscoe was leading at Kansas late in the race but finished fourth. But the PD and the dominator points obviously locked him into the optimal lineup.

Briscoe had a top four car in practice, and he qualified in the second row to start this race. I don’t anticipate an ownership discount on Briscoe. However, with plenty of big names starting in the first five rows he does work well as a secondary dominator option for Sunday’s race.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Drivers

Joey Logano (Starting P23) – DraftKings: $9,500 | FanDuel: $9,500

Most of you probably know where I’m going with this. Logano’s in play purely because of the starting position. However, if you’re going to spend up in this spot, I’d rather target drivers with the potential to lead laps. Any of the four drivers we’ve already discussed are preferred over Logano. Even the next driver in our NASCAR DFS picks has a chance to lead laps.

Logano could certainly get to the front and lead laps like Chase Briscoe did a week ago after starting in the middle of the field. We also aren’t too far removed from seeing Logano lead a healthy amount of laps at Gateway and Bristol. But he also had better track position for those races.

The downside with Logano is that the car may simply not have elite speed. The car wasn’t anything special in practice, but we’ll see how Penske looks on Sunday because that could be a different story. He did win this race two years ago and he’s a four-time winner at Vegas in his career so track history is on his side at least.

William Byron (Starting P8) – DraftKings: $9,200 | FanDuel: $11,500

I haven’t written up Byron too often this year. Hendrick Motorsports and the Chevy camp in general, did struggle out of the gate. But Larson has been finding his groove in the playoffs considering he’s won two of the last three races. Byron hasn’t yet won this year, but he comes in with three consecutive top 10 finishes.

Byron was also pretty impressive in practice on Saturday. He was fastest in single-lap and five-lap averages. Similar to Larson, he didn’t register a longer run, which isn’t something I’m going to panic over.

Byron does have strong track history at Vegas as well. He won here in the spring of 2023. Then he led 55 laps in this race a year ago but got caught up in a wreck. Even this past spring, he started P9 and finished third with 26 laps led. So it does seem hard to believe Byron’s finally catching his stride this season but it took a while for Larson to get his first win of the year, so I don’t want to completely forget about Byron for our NASCAR DFS picks.

Austin Cindric (Starting P7) – DraftKings: $7,900 | FanDuel: $8,200

I don’t want to be too much of a “prisoner of the moment,” but we should remind ourselves that Austin Cindric was fast last week at Kansas. Sure, the scenarios are a bit different. Practice and qualifying were rained out for Kansas so teams just had to show up with speed. And Cindric was very quick. He started P11 and finished second to Larson but Cindric racked up 30(!) fastest laps.

Now the track conditions will be different in Vegas. But the track layout is similar to Kansas so if the team brings a similar setup that they did a week ago, then that can provide for another big DFS score on DraftKings and FanDuel.

Cindric is generally a solid lock for a top 12 finish most weeks. Even in the four playoff races so far, his worst finish is 13th at Darlington. But he does tend to qualify very well which is why he’s normally off our NASCAR DFS picks radar most weeks. But there’s some upside with this play if the team brings a similar car to Vegas so only utilize him in large-field tournament contests since he’ll roll off P7.

Chris Buescher (Starting P14) – DraftKings: $7,600 | FanDuel: $8,000

The mid-range is a lot of the same plays in that it features a lot of drivers priced around each other and those same drivers are starting this race around each other. Chris Buescher is the one I’m most optimistic about.

He rolls off P14 so he offers some position differential. He was also seventh or better in the 5-10-15 laps averages so obviously the practice-to-qualifying table favors him. Buescher’s finished 13th or better in four straight races at Vegas and he was sixth this past spring.

The lone concern I have with him is the momentum. And there was the groundbreaking news earlier in the week that Brad Keselowski is leaving RFK Racing as both driver and owner. I’m sure both Buescher and Ryan Preece are tired of answering questions about their teammate/boss leaving the organization. But Buescher has the potential to win with the right strategy and the car looked sporty during practice on Saturday. Plus, he’s a bit underpriced and he offers up a little position differential.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks: Value Drivers

Josh Berry (Starting P35) – DraftKings: $6,900 | FanDuel: $6,500

There isn’t much to say about Josh Berry aside from the fact that he offers a very safe floor. To go with that, he has had a nice splash of top 10 results which helped him land a ride next year with Legacy Motor Club. For the remainder of the 2026 campaign, he’s still in the 21-car for Wood Brothers Racing and he has the valued affiliation with Team Penske.

Berry blew a tire in practice and put the car in the wall. And even before that, the car was still pretty damn slow and he even said so in an interview following the wreck.

Berry’s lone Cup Series victory did come at this track, but it was more of a fluky strategy call that helped him get the win. That win marks his lone top 15 result at this track. But his PD is what we’re targeting and he’s flirting with 40 fantasy points on DraftKings with a top 20 finish and a few fastest laps.

Daniel Suarez (Starting P11) – DraftKings: $6,600 | FanDuel: $6,800

Suarez gets a mention for this week’s NASCAR DFS picks because his track history at Vegas really stands out. Over his last seven races at this track, Suarez has an average starting spot of 21.7 with an 11.3 average finish. That kind of PD upside at this track can certainly play especially since Suarez is under $7,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

Suarez has eight straight top 20 finishes at Vegas and in five of those races he actually finished 15th or better. And to give him a little more upside, he’s led 10+ laps in four of those eight races as well. He got a very surprising win at Charlotte earlier this year which is a similar 1.5-mile intermediate track and he’s coming off a top 15 performance at Kansas last week. This is generally a lower variance track and given the track history, I’m willing to plug Daniel Suarez into some of my NASCAR DFS lineups for the South Point 400.

Suarez’s starting spot does relegate him to just large-field tournament contests. However, the practice speeds indicate he might be able to contend for a top five finish. And we don’t say that too often regarding Suarez.

Connor Zilisch (Starting P31) – DraftKings: $5,800 | FanDuel: $5,000

I can’t believe it’s come to this, but I’ve talked myself into playing Zilisch for the South Point 400. The practice speeds indicate that he should have a top 20 car and the kid still has talent. I’m not going to write him off because of one bad year at the Cup Series level. In general, it’s been a down year for Trackhouse Racing aside from Shane Van Gisbergen winning a couple road races.

But Zilisch’s speed in practice does indicate he should be able to move up from the P31 starting spot. He raced here a few times in the old Xfinity Series and was even the runner-up a year ago in the Vegas playoff race with 34 laps led.

Is this a slam dunk play? No, not really. Just look at his results this year. He’ll be the first to tell you things have not gone as planned. But I’m willing to take some shots on him in a few GPP lineups because I don’t anticipate significant ownership and if the practice speed is real he should be able to drive this into the top 20.

Noah Gragson (Starting P36) – DraftKings: $5,400 | FanDuel: $3,800

There won’t be anything special or noteworthy about Gragson’s performance or DFS outlook as we close out our NASCAR DFS picks. Gragson blew his right rear tire towards the end of practice and put the car in the wall sustaining some damage along the way.

So he’s going to start dead last no matter what. The floor is very safe because he can’t get you any negative position differential. The big concern is that Gragson has finished outside the top 30 in three-of-four playoff races. He’s not an elite driver by any means, but he should be finishing top 25 most weeks. He even ended the regular season with top 25 results in five of the final six races.

At the end of the day, if you need to hang your hat on one argument for Gragson, it’s that this is his home track. In three of his last five races at Vegas, he’s finished 18th or better. So he loves to put on a show in front of his friends and family. Unfortunately for him, he has some work to do starting from the rear. But for a punt play for our NASCAR DFS picks, he offers up a decent floor.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Optimizer & Lineups Picks This Week

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