Chase Briscoe went to victory lane for the second straight race and last week’s victory marked his third win of the season. All three have come on the “cookie cutter” 1.5-mile intermediate tracks. Kyle Larson maintained his Chase lead by 49 points over Denny Hamlin, but Christopher Bell and Briscoe are both looking to close the gap a bit.

Fortunately for the Joe Gibbs Racing drivers, and the rest of the playoff field, the NASCAR Cup Series makes its final trip West to Phoenix Raceway. This track hosted the Championship race from 2020-2025 but has since been replaced by Homestead-Miami Speedway for the 2026 finale. But we do have the luxury of track history and plenty of recent short track data to consider for this week’s NASCAR DFS picks.

We have all your coverage with the NASCAR DFS Playbook for DraftKings and FanDuel in addition to the NASCAR DFS Projections and the NASCAR DFS Ownership outlook. Let’s dive in and take a look at the top NASCAR DFS picks and lineup building strategies on DraftKings and FanDuel as we get ready for the Freeway Insurance 500!

 

 

 

Phoenix Raceway

Phoenix Raceway is certainly a unique track. It qualifies as a “short, flat” track but it features its own unique shape featuring the dogleg right after the start/finish line. But this is still a shorter, flat track so certain drivers and organizations will have an edge. And we can also look to similar tracks on the schedule such as New Hampshire, Gateway, and Richmond while also looking at some data from tracks like Iowa, North Wilkesboro, and possibly Martinsville.

While this is a short track, we don’t need to dwell too much on cars being lapped. Can it happen? Sure. As you can see from the Trends table above, there are some races where 15+ drivers can lose the lead lap. However, in the last two races at Phoenix (2026 Spring, 2025 Championship) there were enough cautions to keep at least 25 cars on the lead lap.

The winner’s starting spot certainly stands out. And it shouldn’t be too surprising to see so much win equity come from the first six rows. That also plays into the trends we’ve seen lately where the winning driver started P11 or better dating all the way back to Sonoma.

And be mindful, big moves are likely to happen based on teams making aggressive strategy calls. Phoenix has historically been a difficult track to pass at. And anybody with eyeballs can argue that the NextGen car, and the short track aero package, haven’t made for the most exciting green flag racing.

I do anticipate some playoff drivers being very aggressive with certain strategies to gain track position. We’re down to just four races remaining for the NASCAR Cup Series Chase. When you consider the current state of the playoff standings, Larson has a fairly comfortable lead, but 10 Chase-eligible drivers are more than 100 points behind. With four races to go, and Talladega looming next weekend, I’m sure most of the field is feeling the pressure to get stage points and a good finish.

 

 

 

NASCAR DraftKings and FanDuel Scoring Trends with DFS Strategy

The DFS strategy doesn’t change too much from what we’ve seen at other short tracks. There are 312 laps for this race which means there are probably a little more than 200 dominator points available for our NASCAR DFS picks. For FanDuel, that means we have 30+ laps led points but each driver will collect 0.1 points for every lap completed as well.

Phoenix does see some unique trends all in all. It does feel like if there’s one short track where laps led can come from a driver starting deeper in the field, it could be this one. In the last two playoff races at this track, 578 total laps came from drivers starting inside the top 10. And remember, those were championship races where there were only four drivers eligible for the title. Teams and organizations would often allocate all research to championship cars. Even the in-race action was catered more towards the Championship Four.

In the last three Spring races at this track, nearly 40% of the laps led came from drivers starting outside the top 10. So I do think it’s wise to still target dominator points, especially if drivers with speed and track history are starting very well. This is a track where track position carries weight. But I do expect the race narratives to play out different from the last two playoff races at this track because this race is no longer for the championship.

Ultimately, we should still land on two or three dominators to try and give our NASCAR DFS lineups as much access to the dominator points as possible. And this applies mostly to DraftKings. On FanDuel I’d want maybe two dominator candidates that carry win equity because FanDuel doesn’t reward points for fastest laps. From there we should be able to find some good value plays that offer PD. Even if they start very deep in the field and have a chance at being lapped, there are usually some options good enough to still gain 8-to-10 spots.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks & Strategy: Freeway Insurance 500

 

NASCAR Freeway Insurance 500 Top Tier DFS Picks

Ryan Blaney (Starting P1) – DraftKings: $11,500 | FanDuel: $14,000

We kick off this week’s NASCAR DFS picks with arguably the two biggest favorites to potentially win this race. In Blaney’s case, he needs the win and points more than Bell, but both are great options to pair together as the dominators for your lineup(s).

Blaney hasn’t been as dominant as Bell at Phoenix, but Blaney’s won the last two races at this track and he also has three runner-up finishes at Phoenix in the NextGen era. You can make the argument that he should have a third win at Phoenix. Back in the 2023 Championship race at this track, Ross Chastain technically won the race while Blaney came in second but was still crowned the champion. Blaney was hilariously complaining on the radio that Chastain should let him pass but to each their own.

Blaney has been great on the short, flat track in the playoffs but he’s also had some nice success at Iowa, where he’s never finished worse than fourth and he’s shown he can lead a big chunk of laps. But we’re looking for dominator candidates in this range. Both Blaney and Bell are going to be wildly popular options come Sunday since he starts on the pole.

Christopher Bell (Starting P5) – DraftKings: $11,200 | FanDuel: $13,500

This race could potentially be Bell’s to lose. Blaney and Bell are probably the two favorites when they’ve each won twice here since the start of the 2023 season. But Bell was fastest in almost every metric in practice and he’s had speed almost everywhere in the playoffs. Even last week he led 93 laps at Charlotte but finished second for the billionth time this season.

He obviously has the two wins at this track, but he was also the runner-up here in the spring where he led 176 laps. Even Ryan Blaney, who did win that race, acknowledged that Bell had the best car that day. Bell has led 100+ laps in three of the last four races at Phoenix so the dominator upside is huge. He’s clearly one of the easiest drivers to select and build our lineups around because the upside is through the roof.

Denny Hamlin (Starting P4) – DraftKings: $10,700 | FanDuel: $13,000

I’m leaning into Hamlin over Kyle Larson mostly because of the track position he starts with and the practice speeds. Larson’s going to make the table below because he offers position differential. But Larson’s practice speed was very underwhelming. And if we’re spending up we should be targeting drivers who can lead laps and collect fastest laps.

Hamlin’s not in a rut but it also a bit surprising how lukewarm his playoff results have been. But still, the practice speeds indicate he likely has a top eight car. The issue is that Blaney and Bell are huge favorites after showcasing elite speed in practice.

A year ago in the championship race at Phoenix, Hamlin suffered complete heartbreak after dominating most of that race with 208 laps led. But a late caution reshuffled the field. Kyle Larson made a two-tire pit stop as the race went to overtime. Hamlin took four. And because of that, Larson emerged with better track position and beat Hamlin over the final two laps to win the championship. A win, or a very strong performance, would help him gain some ground on Larson and give him some redemption from a year ago.

Joey Logano (Starting P2) – DraftKings: $10,200 | FanDuel: $12,500

Logano is a fine pivot if you’re looking to get some lineups in that aren’t starting with Blaney and Bell. Logano starts on the front row next to teammate Ryan Blaney. We’ve seen Logano lead laps and score well in these playoffs when he’s started on the front row. But in three of his last four Phoenix races, he’s started on the front row. And in those three races, he’s led at least 70 laps.

Obviously we can’t assume that’s a guarantee to happen for this race. Blaney and Bell both looked elite in practice and both carry more win equity. But Logano is also currently sixth in the playoff standings. And Kyle Larson starts outside the top 20 for this race. So Stage 1 is a great opportunity for the other playoff drivers to cut into his lead.

Logano’s long run metrics are a bit off because there’s such a huge dropoff from the short run metrics where he looked to have a top five car. So it’s possible something happened during the longer runs that forced him out of the throttle. But as things stand, he has great track position and is a nice GPP pivot for our NASCAR DFS picks.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Drivers

Bubba Wallace (Starting P23) – DraftKings: $8,200 | FanDuel: $8,500

Bubba had his run of top 10 finishes come to an end last week at Charlotte after he was caught up in a wreck, but he did get up front and collect some dominator points. But that’s neither here nor there. We are looking at Bubba for position differential on Sunday.

Bubba rolls off P23 for this race and based on the practice-to-qualifying table above, he should have a top 10 car. The short, flat tracks haven’t been a strong point for Bubba but he’s made great improvements on this track type. In two of his last four races at Phoenix, he’s finished in the top seven. But in the other two races in that sample size, he failed to finish.

But he did finish as the runner-up at New Hampshire just a couple months ago after he started P23. New Hampshire truly could be the most comparable track to Phoenix so there is a nice floor/ceiling combination with Bubba if he can avoid a poor finish.

Carson Hocevar (Starting P28) – DraftKings: $7,900 | FanDuel: $8,200

Hocevar is definitely a polarizing figure. You either love him or hate him. But he’s entertaining and aggressive. Now his track history at Phoenix isn’t the greatest if I’m being honest. In six career Cup Series races at Phoenix, he only has one top 15 finish.

The good news is that the car has speed based on the practice results above. Is Hocevar the most reliable driver for a top 10 finish? Not really. He tends to qualify very well and then go backwards from there. But he is 180 points behind Kyle Larson in the playoff standings, so he needs to be aggressive. He’ll be racing for stage points and a strong finish. It’s obviously very unlikely he wins the race, but he knows he needs to make up ground in the standings. For our NASCAR DFS picks, I’m hoping he can finish 15th at the very least for 40+ fantasy points. If he nails the strategy, he could possibly finish top 10.

Josh Berry (Starting P9) – DraftKings: $7,700 | FanDuel: $7,800

So the Sub-$8K drivers in this article could surprise some people because I am mentioning a pair of drivers starting inside the top 10. So if you aren’t comfortable playing Berry then the pivot would be the next driver in the Playbook, or Alex Bowman. But Bowman’s practice speeds were very concerning. The good news is he offers a lot of position differential so his floor is safer than Berry’s and Bowman can pilot that car to a top 15 result even with poor practice speed. And lastly, this is Bowman’s home track.

Now with Josh Berry, we have a driver who is driving the Penske-affiliate car for Wood Brothers Racing. And Penske has two drivers occupying the front row to start this race. Berry laid down a top 10 single lap, then he was 13th in the five-lap averages. But he was top four in the longer run metrics.

Berry wrecked in stage three when the Cup Series raced here in March, but he finished seventh in this race in last year’s playoffs. Prior to that, in the Spring 2025 race, he was top five. Berry also finished third at New Hampshire with 73 laps led. So I do believe he has upside for this race because the track does play to his short track background.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks: Value Drivers

Corey Heim (Starting P36) – DraftKings: $7,200 | FanDuel: $7,500

I’m not entirely sure what Heim needs to do to get some respectful pricing from DraftKings and FanDuel. Sure, he’s a part-time driver that will be full-time in 2027. But even as a part-time driver he’s won two races this year and one of those was technically a crown jewel event (Indianapolis).

Even last week at Charlotte, Heim started P37 (qualifying was canceled) and he finished 11th collecting a ton of position differential along the way. He’s in a 23XI Racing car so as long as he’s running clean, this is probably a top 15 car.

Heim had some success at Phoenix over the last couple seasons in the Truck Series. He won last year’s Championship race with 100 laps led and in 2024 he finished as the runner-up with a handful of laps led as well. The DFS community knows how good he is and that even with his strong performances and big scores, he feels underpriced by maybe $1,000.

Ryan Preece (Starting P26) – DraftKings: $7,000 | FanDuel: $6,500

I will always feature Ryan Preece when NASCAR visits a short, flat track. Or at the very least, he’ll make the player pool because these tracks are his bread and butter even if his lone career Cup Series win came at Daytona just a couple months ago.

But Preece does tend to thrive on short, flat tracks. In his three races at Phoenix with RFK Racing, he’s finished top 15 in all three including a top 10 in last year’s Championship race after he started P21. Over his last seven races at Phoenix, dating back to his time with Stewart-Haas Racing, Preece has five top 15 finishes at this track.

So far this year we saw Preece finish 13th in the first Phoenix race, 12th in the first Martinsville race, and he was top 10 at short, flat tracks such as North Wilkesboro and New Hampshire. So the track history and performances this year on comparable tracks are all on his side.

Michael McDowell (Starting P8) – DraftKings: $6,100 | FanDuel: $5,200

McDowell is a value play for our NASCAR DFS picks who solely made the Playbook because of his track history. If you look at his last six races at Phoenix, you’ll see three races with Spire Motorsports and three with Front Row Motorsports. And he has four top 10 finishes, two with each organization. But I’ll also note that McDowell finished outside the top 25 in the other two races in this six-race sample size.

That kind of a ceiling is certainly worth chasing. Is there downside to McDowell? Of course. He’s the non-playoff driver on his own team so in terms of resources, he’s not getting the attention that Carson Hocevar and Daniel Suarez are likely receiving. From that perspective, I could understand approaching this play with a little trepidation. But fortunately, there are 22 drivers priced $7,500 or below on DraftKings this week. If McDowell’s recent track history isn’t enough for you to want to play him then we have some pivots in this section and in the driver pool table below because McDowell’s starting spot is sure to scare off plenty of DFS players, and I totally get that so we’ll limit him to contests where you ideally enter 150 lineups.

John Hunter Nemechek (Starting P32) – DraftKings: $5,000 | FanDuel: $3,500

For what it’s worth, I do think JHN’s teammate, Erik Jones, is also worthy of some exposure. But I do need to offer up a “punt” option for our NASCAR DFS picks. JHN certainly won’t win this race but a top 20 is on the table. The track history isn’t great but he’s so cheap and he offers position differential that he’s hard to ignore.

And the other thing you have to like about JHN is that his practice speeds tell us the car should be a top 20 ride. And Erik Jones was also in the top 20 across a handful of metrics so Legacy Motor Club might have some competitive rides for this race. The Toyota organizations do well sharing information and data so while Jones and JHN are on the “third” Toyota team, they are decent value options that can move into the top 20 and score well with a decent finish.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Optimizer & Lineups Picks This Week

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