We’re in the dog days of summer with the 2026 NFL season fast approaching so the NASCAR prize pools might take a bit of a hit in a few weeks. I try to emphasize this as much as possible, but this is the time of year where Team Penske really turns things up as we head into the playoff portion of the schedule. The Chase for the Cup Series Championship is looming and Ryan Blaney has been winning poles at a fast rate and Penske has won three of the last five races.

Joey Logano has proven to be quite the formidable force on the short, flat tracks. Last month he dominated at North Wilkesboro and just last week he once again looked sporty at Richmond on his way to his second win of the season. And now we’re heading to another short, flat track ahead of next weekend’s regular season finale in Daytona.

We have all your coverage with the NASCAR DFS Playbook for DraftKings and FanDuel in addition to the NASCAR DFS Projections and the NASCAR DFS Ownership outlook. Let’s dive in and take a look at the top NASCAR DFS picks and lineup building strategies on DraftKings and FanDuel as we get ready for the Dollar Tree 301!

 

 

 

New Hampshire Motor Speedway

As mentioned above, this is the third straight week of short track racing. Iowa is a shorter track with some banking. Richmond is certainly a short, flat track with higher tire wear. New Hampshire can be a bit dry when it comes to the quality of racing. It measures in at a little over one mile in length, but it truly is one of the flattest tracks on the schedule. Martinsville has no banking in its straightaways but does have progressive banking up to 12 degrees in the turns. New Hampshire, by comparison, has just one degree of banking in the straights and just two-to-seven degrees of progressive banking in the turns.

This track has been a consistent staple on the NASCAR schedule for many years as it is New England’s lone representation on the NASCAR Cup Series schedule. This race is unique in that the winner is rewarded a rather large lobster when they head to victory lane. And this is the sixth time in as many years this race has had a different sponsor.

In the four NextGen races we’ve seen at New Hampshire, the winner has come from inside the top five. About 75% of the laps led over the last five races here have come from drivers starting inside the top 10. Historically it can be difficult to pass here, especially on long green flag runs. In the last five races here, only 38% of the top 10 finishers started outside the top 12.

It won’t be all that surprising to see this play out like most of the short, flat races in the NextGen era. This package has certainly had its struggles on this type of track so we should try and keep expectations in check. The good news is we come into this weekend with a good sample size of who has been strong at this track type. And as we’ve already mentioned, NASCAR has dedicated the late-summer portion of their schedule to some short track action.

 

 

 

NASCAR DraftKings and FanDuel Scoring Trends with DFS Strategy

The four races in the NextGen era have all seen 36 drivers in the field and that’ll be the same for Sunday’s race. The front row obviously has an overwhelming edge for DFS and that holds true heading into this weekend. P2 looks like a clear frontrunner but that’s more of an indication of the front row in general. The P1 starting spot sees the average score weighted differently because in this race in 2021, Kyle Busch started on the pole but wrecked eight laps into the race after NASCAR decided to go green when there was a little precipitation on the track. If you just focus on the four NextGen races at New Hampshire, the pole sitter is averaging 54.72 fantasy points on DraftKings and 60.05 fantasy points on FanDuel.

You’ll notice that outside of the first few rows, there’s no clear favorable starting spot for our NASCAR DFS picks. There are some spots slightly above the red average scoring line and they’ll mostly get there through position differential. But it’s not like the middle of the pack or the back of the field has a significant edge. And I kind of like that because obviously for next week we’ll be stacking the back and mostly targeting position differential at Daytona.

We have 301 laps for this race. After we account for caution laps we have roughly 200 dominator points to work with. So you guessed it, we’re probably going with at least two dominator candidates that carry win equity, and if you can squeeze in three dominators then more power to you. The rest of our lineups don’t necessarily need to feature too many drivers starting deep in the pack. You can find top 10 equity with drivers starting in rows 6-10. 

But we have you covered below with a full breakdown of our latest NASCAR DFS picks with practice notes and drivers who have historically performed very well at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Let’s dive into the NASCAR DFS Picks for Sunday’s Dollar Tree 301!

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks & Strategy: Dollar Tree 301

There really wasn’t anything eventful in practice on Saturday and that’s a good thing. We got a long 50-minute session with everyone getting plenty of laps in. The one note I do want to make is that the track conditions on Sunday should be much warmer compared to Saturday’s practice. The practice session ran from 10:30am-11:30am ET while the race will go green at 2:00pm ET.

 

NASCAR Dollar Tree 301 Top Tier DFS Picks

Ryan Blaney (Starting P8) – DraftKings: $11,200 | FanDuel: $13,500

Blaney and Denny Hamlin certainly appear to have two of the strongest cars in the field. Both are in play but I’m choosing to highlight Blaney. He had the best car during Saturday morning’s practice session and this comes after we just saw him win the pole at both Iowa and Richmond where he led a combined 217 laps between those two races.

He’s returned 55+ fantasy points in each of the last two races entering this weekend so he offers a good floor and he appears to have a car capable of winning once again. His teammate, Joey Logano, won last week so clearly Penske is nailing the setups on these short, flat tracks and we should expect them to contend once again next week at Daytona.

Blaney enters this weekend as the winner of last year’s New Hampshire race which fell in the playoff portion of the schedule. Blaney led 116 laps in that race and was routinely running inside the top five. He works very well as either your primary dominator or secondary dominator if you pair him with Tyler Reddick.

Christopher Bell (Starting P6) – DraftKings: $10,700 | FanDuel: $14,000

Bell is the third-most expensive driver on DraftKings while he actually comes in as the most expensive option over on FanDuel. He still doesn’t have a win this year, but he’s finished as the runner-up on SEVEN occasions. Why not break this drought for our NASCAR DFS picks at a track he’s been so good at throughout his career?

Bell has won two of the four NextGen races at New Hampshire and when you look back at his time in the NASCAR O’Reilly Auto Parts Series, he won all four of the races he started.

Bell’s looked strong on the comparable tracks as well. He was second at Phoenix with over 170 laps led. He also finished second at Iowa where he led over 100 laps. Even last week at Richmond he grabbed a top 10 with a handful of dominator points. There just wasn’t much he could do with how good the Penske cars were.

But you have to go into this race liking Bell a good amount as he has the track history on his side and he’s itching to break through and get his first win of the year.

Joey Logano (Starting P21) – DraftKings: $10,500 | FanDuel: $12,500

Usually when spending up on a short, flat track you want to target dominator candidates over position differential. Logano sort of offers both! He starts outside the top 20 but based on the practice-to-qualifying table above he should have a top 10 car for Sunday afternoon’s race. For our NASCAR DFS picks, we know we get a little win juice as well because of how strong he looked at North Wilkesboro and Richmond. But granted, he had better track position to start those races.

While Blaney won this race last fall, Logano still finished fourth and led 147 laps. Logano’s finished top five in four of the last six New Hampshire races so track history is on his side. And overall, he loves racing here. He’s originally from New England and said this crowd were “his people” as he’s familiar with the area overall. The starting spot means he has a safe floor. If he can get to the front and collect dominator points, then he has an easy path to being optimal, but he won’t come in at an ownership discount for our NASCAR DFS picks.

Chase Briscoe (Starting P17) – DraftKings: $10,000 | FanDuel: $12,000

Briscoe is a trendy option because he does offer a little position differential and he is a solid driver on the short, flat tracks. He is a previous winner at Phoenix which is a comparable track to New Hampshire, but perhaps it’s the more recent stretch of short track performances we can lean into.

Briscoe started and finished second a week ago at Richmond with 171 laps led and 52 fastest laps. Two weeks ago at Iowa he started P20 and finished sixth with 15 fastest laps despite the alleged brake issues Joe Gibbs Racing had to deal with. And last month at North Wilkesboro, Briscoe started P30 and finished third with 24 fastest laps and five laps led. He’ll have to work his way through the field on Sunday, but he offers a great ceiling and he likely comes in with less ownership than Logano.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Drivers

Kyle Larson (Starting P9) – DraftKings: $9,500 | FanDuel: $11,500

Larson’s clearly having a bit of a “backwards” season because he hasn’t won a race since May of last year. But there’s still upside with this play. I don’t believe there will be many DFS players cramming Larson in so I’m not opposed to aiming for 25-30% ownership here.

This is one of his best tracks if you look at his career. Does he have a win? No, but he’s been rather consistent. Prior to the NextGen era, way back when they raced at this track twice a year, Larson finished second in both the 2017 races. And back in 2014, he finished second and third. Now more recently, within the NextGen era, he’s finished seventh or better in each of the last three races.

Now he does enter this weekend with poor form. He’s finished outside the top 30 in four of the last six races. But he did have a great run a week ago at Richmond where he started P30 for that race and finished sixth with 40(!) fastest laps.

Ty Gibbs (Starting P7) – DraftKings: $9,200 | FanDuel: $11,000

Gibbs had a great car in practice even if the practice-to-qualifying numbers are all over the place. But Gibbs has broken the seal and collected his first two career wins. More are bound to come, and he seems very happy with his car heading into Sunday.

Gibbs obviously won at Iowa two weeks ago and he was fourth at North Wilkesboro last month. Joe Gibbs Racing thrives on short, flat tracks and Gibbs has been collecting plenty of dominator points over the last five-to-seven races.

Gibbs’ track history at New Hampshire isn’t as noteworthy as other drivers. But at the same time, he’s clearly taken a huge step in 2026. We’re treating the current version of Gibbs different from what we saw in 2023-2025 because he’s a much better driver at this point.

Chase Elliott (Starting P29) – DraftKings: $8,500 | FanDuel: $9,500

Yes, I’m skipping over the polesitter this week. Tyler Reddick will make the driver pool below and I’m sure I’ll play him in some lineups as well. But the car looked slow in practice and he’s historically struggled on the short, flat tracks. Reddick obviously has a clear path to lead laps, but I’m not completely sold he can finish well and it’s not a lock he collects enough dominator points to wipe out any negative PD points.

Elliott offers a good floor. And he’s also on a bit of a cold streak but he corrected course last week with a top five finish at Richmond. Elliott didn’t look great in practice, but it wouldn’t surprise me if the team made some unapproved adjustments prior to Sunday’s race to improve the setup.

But he does have track history we can lean into. Elliott started P27 in this race a year ago and grabbed a top five. Two years ago, he started on the pole with 41 laps led but he finished 17th. Back in 2022, he finished as the runner-up. For this race he gives us a good floor from this starting spot, and he will be popular. But a similar run to last week likely lands him in the optimal lineup.

Bubba Wallace (Starting P23) – DraftKings: $8,000 | FanDuel: $8,200

We always say that “chalk Bubba” is never a good thing but that is a scenario we’re staring down heading into Sunday’s race. Bubba’s car looked incredible in the long run during Saturday’s practice session and his teammate, who looked slow in practice, was able to land the pole. So 23XI Racing may have something special with their setup.

Last month at North Wilkesboro, Bubba started P26 and finished sixth with 6.5 dominator points. Two weeks ago at Iowa, he started P26 and finished 12th with 20 dominator points. 

Now the track history is a bit inconsistent. Over the last four races here he’s finished eighth or better in two of them. But in the other two races he finished outside the top 25. So I do believe Bubba has a great shot to score well ahead of next week’s race at Daytona where he’s going to carry plenty of win equity.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks: Value Drivers

Austin Cindric (Starting P26) – DraftKings: $7,900 | FanDuel: $9,000

Cindric’s probably a better value on DraftKings than FanDuel for our NASCAR DFS picks but I’m fine playing him on either site. As a driver who has a win on his resume at Gateway, I am led to believe he has upside on short, flat tracks but alas the practice and qualifying results on Saturday were not great. But I do like the fact that his teammates (Blaney and Logano), and even Josh Berry, seem to have speed.

Cindric is coming off a top three finish a week ago at Richmond and he also finished 14th at North Wilkesboro last month. In general, this is a car that should be top 12 most weeks but Cindric, while he’s a decent driver, lacks consistency. But the starting spot lends himself to position differential and he did have 19 fastest laps a week ago after starting outside the top 20.

Chris Buescher (Starting P16) – DraftKings: $7,600 | FanDuel: $6,800

The RFK cars haven’t really come across as reliable as they were earlier in the year. But there’s no denying that they’re all incredibly affordable for Sunday’s race and all three drivers threw out the first pitch at Fenway Park Friday night. It helps when the owner of the Boston Red Sox is also an owner of the racing team.

As of Saturday afternoon, I think I prefer Buescher over Brad Keselowski and Ryan Preece but all three will make the driver pool below. The track history for Buescher hasn’t been awful but it’s also not great. He did have a good showing in practice on Saturday. Buescher ranked third in the 15-and-20 lap averages and it appears he should have a top 10 car.

I am more than happy to spread exposure around between all three especially since Kez and Preece offer more position differential. And be mindful, we never want to be too overexposed to a condensed pool of value plays.

Daniel Suarez (Starting P35) – DraftKings: $6,600 | FanDuel: $5,800

It doesn’t take a ton of analysis with this recommendation. Suarez starts second-to-last so he offers a very good floor. Overall, this is some of the better equipment you could possibly find in this range. Based on the practice-to-qualifying table above, Suarez should have a borderline top 20 car.

Due to the floor he offers, he’s likely going to carry a good amount of ownership. He wrecked in last year’s race but in the three races from 2022-2024 he had an average finish of 15.3 with Trackhouse Racing. More recently we saw him finish 16th at Richmond, 23rd at Iowa (started P33), and ninth at North Wilkesboro. He’s not the sexiest play on the slate but he’s cheap and has a very good floor for our NASCAR DFS picks.

Michael McDowell (Starting P15) – DraftKings: $6,100 | FanDuel: $5,500

We’ll wrap up the NASCAR DFS picks with Michael McDowell as the cheapest driver I’m “comfortable” playing but if you do need some punts in the $5,000 range on DraftKings, then check out the driver pool below. McDowell has looked sporty over the last few years whenever NASCAR has visited Loudon.

He finished top 15 in 2023 and 2024 at this track with Trackhouse Racing. Then last year in the playoffs, he started P11 and finished eighth in his first year with Spire Motorsports. The results of late haven’t been too strong which is disappointing because there have been so many short tracks on the schedule. However, the short run speed looked like he has a top 12 car. If he can extend that across the long run on Sunday then it’s possible he can steal a second straight top 10 finish at New Hampshire.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Optimizer & Lineups Picks This Week

Player Pool

$ Tier {{pos.alias}}

Stacks

{{stack.team.name}} {{player.name}}
DraftKings {{player.fantasy.price.value[8]}}-
Fanduel {{player.fantasy.price.value[6]}}-