Ty Gibbs was able to lock up his second career win at Iowa Speedway last week and he did it amidst some brake issues for a few of the drivers in the Toyota camp. But for the second straight week, the NASCAR Cup Series heads to another short, flat track. Richmond Raceway, aka “The Action Track” will play host to a night race on Saturday. With just three races to go until The Chase kicks off the renewed playoff format, points are a premium for those drivers near-or-below the cut line.

We have all your coverage with the NASCAR DFS Playbook for DraftKings and FanDuel in addition to the NASCAR DFS Projections and the NASCAR DFS Ownership outlook. Let’s dive in and take a look at the top NASCAR DFS picks and lineup building strategies on DraftKings and FanDuel as we get ready for the Cook Out 400!

 

 

 

Richmond Raceway

I do apologize if there’s a sense of “brevity” to this NASCAR DFS Playbook. This race is Saturday night and I am going to be in Philadelphia this weekend for the UFC fights. So with that being said, I’m handling the latest NASCAR DFS picks and the projections Friday night since I won’t be able to do anything Saturday. But we were fortunate to get a comparable track a week ago and we have plenty of track history to consider as well.

Richmond Raceway is a short, flat track measuring in at 0.75 miles in length. It is about one-eighth of a mile shorter than Iowa, which is where these drivers raced just a few days ago. There’s 14 degrees of banking in the turns, eight degrees on the front stretch, and two degrees on the back stretch.

Richmond Raceway is also a little unique because passing can be difficult here and this is generally a short track that does feature more tire wear than we’ll likely see at Martinsville or even New Hampshire which is where these drivers will race next weekend.

The Trends Table above isn’t too surprising if you’re familiar with the racing at Richmond. Half the field will likely finish off the lead lap. And with 400 laps on the table at a short track, it’s not surprising that we see so many drivers capable of collecting dominator points. And the beauty of this track is that the winner can come from anywhere. Yes, this is a short track so track position matters. But each of the last five winners started outside the top five.

 

 

 

NASCAR DraftKings and FanDuel Scoring Trends with DFS Strategy

As we mentioned in the previous section, Richmond differs from a lot of tracks we’ve seen this year because there’s win equity coming from all over the field. The polesitter clearly has an early edge because of the path to the laps led and fastest laps by benefitting from clean air. And while that P38 starting spot looks very strong in the starting spot charts, it’s worth noting that of the last five races, only one had a field of 38 drivers. That was last year’s race where Logano started P38 and finished in the top five, so the score for that starting spot is heavily skewed.

Similar to last week’s strategy for our NASCAR DFS picks, we’re chasing dominator points. With 400 laps on the table we’re likely looking at 260+ dominator points on DraftKings. And based on the Trends Table from the previous section, the dominator points can be spread out as it’s unlikely we see one driver truly run away and dominate this race. In each of the last three races, there have been two drivers to lead 100+ laps. In four of the last five races at Richmond, there have been at least three drivers to lead 50+ laps.

You want at least two dominators when building NASCAR DFS lineups for Richmond. In most cases you’ll want three. And if you can build a lineup you’re satisfied with, you can even chase four dominators, but you have to get a little lucky nailing a mid-range or value-priced driver that can get out front.

I’ll play some drivers offering position differential, but I’m prioritizing dominator points and good finishes. You have to be comfortable playing some value options that are starting inside the top 20. They start with good enough track position where if they maintain that spot, they’re likely staying on the lead lap. And to that point, they could still move up if some of the chalk wrecks out or busts.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks & Strategy: Cook Out 400

Be mindful that practice was held Friday afternoon under warmer conditions. Saturday’s race will be at night, under the lights, and the track conditions will be much cooler. So there are plenty of drivers that look slow in the table above who likely have setups that’ll be better on a cooler track once the sun sets.

 

NASCAR Cook Out 400 Top Tier DFS Picks

Denny Hamlin (Starting P14) – DraftKings: $11,500 | FanDuel: $14,000

As Matt Selz and I touched on in this week’s NASCAR DFS Show (please ignore the published title, we do know it’s wrong) this is Hamlin’s home track. And while the crowd may not like him, he’s had some great performances here. Over the last nine races at this track, Hamlin has finished as the runner-up on four occasions and he’s also won twice. He’s an easy candidate to eventually get up front, lead laps, and potentially win at Richmond for the sixth time in his career.

Hamlin had a rocket last week at Iowa. He started deep in the field and finished top five with significant brake issues during the entire race. During a post-race interview, he said it was one of the best races he’s ever had. So long as the brake issues have been addressed, Hamlin has a path to a huge score and he’ll once again carry significant ownership for Saturday night’s Cook Out 400.

Ryan Blaney (Starting P1) – DraftKings: $11,000 | FanDuel: $12,000

Historically, this isn’t a good track for Ryan Blaney. But he did turn a corner recently and as we noted last week ahead of the race at Iowa, Team Penske is getting better on the short, flat tracks. Blaney does not have a win here, but he’s improving at this track even if the results don’t quite follow suit. Four years ago he started on the pole at Richmond and finished seventh. But he also led 128 laps. Last year he started P20 and finished third with 39 laps led.

For the fourth time in the last five races, Blaney is starting on the pole. Last week at Iowa he led 129 laps with 66 fastest laps at Iowa. And we just touched on what he did from the pole back in 2022 at this track.

Blaney’s car was already pretty quick in practice and now he has a path to clean air early on for Saturday’s race. Blaney looked very sporty in the long run and didn’t see much tire fall off so that bodes well for his outlook for Saturday’s race assuming he can maintain track position and run up front like he did last weekend.

Joey Logano (Starting P10) – DraftKings: $10,500 | FanDuel: $13,000

Logano’s coming off a rather disappointing result at Iowa. But at the end of the day, he didn’t lead a single lap but still collected 17 fastest laps. During Friday’s practice session, both Blaney and Logano displayed minimal tire fall off on the longer run. Blaney’s going to be the trendy pick for our NASCAR DFS picks because he’s on the pole. But at the same time, Logano has the better track history.

Logano would’ve won this race two years ago if he wasn’t intentionally wrecked by Austin Dillon on the final lap. Over his last 12 races at Richmond, Logano’s finished top five on seven occasions.

Last week’s result might leave a sour taste in the mouths of plenty of DFS players but don’t forget how good he was a few weeks ago when he won at North Wilkesboro. Pairing him with Blaney is a good way to start your NASCAR DFS lineup builds if you’re looking to fade Hamlin.

Kyle Larson (Starting P30) – DraftKings: $9,700 | FanDuel: $12,500

It hasn’t been a great year for Kyle Larson and to make matters worse, he’s not able to race in the World of Outlaws Knoxville Nationals on Saturday. He’s tired of answering questions about it, so we won’t dwell on it either.

Larson’s qualifying effort is mostly due to the fact he went out early in the qualifying session. So he offers a lot of position differential. But that doesn’t quite play as well as dominator potential. Larson has a lot of work to do to move up through the field. But if he does get up front, then he can put up a huge score as long as he doesn’t have a bad finish. And that’s been a problem for him lately.

The practice speeds were pretty solid for Larson in Group 1. And overall, he was among the best in the longer run metrics. I don’t think I’ll land on a ton of Larson for this race because I’d rather chase the drivers who can collect dominator points in this price range. Larson certainly can do that, but he has a lot of work to do.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Drivers

Chase Briscoe (Starting P2) – DraftKings: $9,500 | FanDuel: $10,000

Briscoe certainly strikes you as a driver who should be good at Richmond. He’s had success on short, flat tracks but he’s never logged a top 10 result here. And he’s never led a lap here. So the casual DFS players may see that and avoid him. After all, Blaney’s expecting to come in with excessive ownership starting P1. But Briscoe is a good pivot starting right next to Blaney.

Briscoe’s practice results don’t look too great. But remember, the race is at night while practice was during the day on Friday. Briscoe was one of the Toyota drivers last week who reportedly had brake issues heading into Sunday’s race. But similar to Hamlin, he moved up through the field and finished sixth. He didn’t lead a single lap but collected 15 fastest laps.

Briscoe is a great GPP pivot off Blaney but Blaney is the better pick for cash games. But this is a great opportunity for Briscoe to potentially lead laps and grab a good result, which hasn’t been easy for him at Richmond.

Austin Dillon (Starting P16) – DraftKings: $8,300 | FanDuel: $11,000

Austin Dillon is not a mid-tier pick on FanDuel. I can’t say I’m surprised by the DraftKings price tag, but I am surprised by the FanDuel tag. But Dillon’s won the last two races at Richmond Raceway. The first win wasn’t clean by any means after he intentionally took out Joey Logano and Denny Hamlin. But last year’s winning effort was pretty impressive and well earned.

The fact that he comes in as the back-to-back winner of this race is probably enough to boost his ownership for our NASCAR DFS picks. He also offers a little bit of position differential as well and we know he can get up to the front. The team basically just needs to match the setup they’ve had the last two years for this race.

Now I was pretty vocal on the NASCAR DFS Show that I likely wouldn’t play too much Austin Dillon in my own DFS lineups. Fading him may very well be the ultimate leverage play because if he busts, you’re sitting pretty. Even if he only comes in with 18-22% ownership, I’m happy to take that leverage and be underweight. But I can’t deny the fact that his team has figured something out with this track and he’s benefitted greatly the last two years.

Ross Chastain (Starting P18) – DraftKings: $8,100 | FanDuel: $7,500

Chastain is a better value on FanDuel than DraftKings, but overall a fine play on both sites. Chastain’s had a rough year. Aside from the road courses, Trackhouse Racing has really had their struggles. But Chastain’s coming off a week where he had a pretty stellar performances at Iowa. He only finished seventh after starting P9 but he also led 40 laps and had a dozen fastest laps. After that performances, DraftKings raised his price tag by $1,000.

Chastain had okay speed in practice, but the car looked sporty in the long run. Chastain’s finished top five in two of the last five races at this track and this is a driver who needs as many points as possible to make a push for The Chase since he’s currently 47 points behind Austin Cindric for the last spot in The Chase.

We know Chastain is capable of aggressive moves and strategy calls. I’m expecting that to be the case once again for our NASCAR DFS picks.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks: Value Drivers

Josh Berry (Starting P3) – DraftKings: $7,200 | FanDuel: $7,000

Last week we were comfortable playing Josh Berry when he started P13. Are we brave and bold enough to play him when he starts P3? This is purely just a GPP play and one that likely goes backward. But you cannot deny that this stretch of Iowa, Richmond, and New Hampshire represent three of Berry’s best tracks.

Berry’s worst finished in four career races at Richmond is 14th and that was two years ago. Last year he finished eighth at this track. He even finished as the runner-up here in the Spring of 2023 when he raced in the 9-car for Chase Elliott.

Berry does thrive on the short, flat tracks. That’s evident by last week’s top five result at Iowa. But if you’re playing 20+ lineups in GPP contests for this race, you can probably play Berry in 15% of those lineups and feel okay with having a little bit of leverage in case this is the value play that breaks the slate.

Austin Cindric (Starting P23) – DraftKings: $7,000 | FanDuel: $6,500

We just touched on Cindric in Chastain’s section and as the driver clinging to the last spot in The Chase standings, he can’t afford a bad run. Fortunately, Team Penske as a whole are getting better on the short, flat tracks and they’re getting hot at the right time once again.

Cindric certainly is capable of a top 15 finish. But he also needs points to pad his spot in The Chase standings. Cindric’s practice numbers are impressive but we are trying to take the practice results with a grain of salt.

Cindric, like his teammate Ryan Blaney, doesn’t have the greatest track history at Richmond. But maybe he’s turned a corner and found the secret to running well at this track. To his credit he finished fifth in this race a year ago and finished well in the first two stages, so he has the ability to move up and gain track position here.

Alex Bowman (Starting P25) – DraftKings: $6,700 | FanDuel: $7,200

It’s not often we see a Hendrick Motorsports car priced this low, but Alex Bowman is a competent driver in good equipment. He doesn’t carry as much win equity as he did in previous years and he’s retiring after the 2027 season. But this car is capable of a top 10 finish and Bowman’s practice speeds look promising.

Bowman’s practice speeds look elite because he went out in the first group so I’m not entirely sold that he has a top five car. But track history is on his side and he won here back in 2021. Even last year he finished as the runner-up to Austin Dillon.

If he can manage a top 15 finish with a handful of fastest laps, he has a path to 40+ fantasy points on DraftKings. He will be a trendy pick, however, because we rarely get a Hendrick car this cheap.

Erik Jones (Starting P21) – DraftKings: $6,000 | FanDuel: $5,200

Jones is an intriguing play for this race. I’m not so much buying into the overall practice speeds from above. My fear is that graphic may juice Jones’ ownership numbers. Per Ryan with iFantasyRace, Jones seemed pretty pleased with his car in practice and they’ll contend in the long run. Per Ryan’s practice notes, it does seem like Jones and his team are trying a different setup as Jones has struggled here in the past.

In the NextGen era, Jones only has one top 20 finish here. And we don’t typically consider him an elite short track racer. But he starts in the middle of the field. As long as he can avoid a complete disaster, he has a chance to maintain the lead lap. He is an affordable option offering position differential and the track history may suppress ownership.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Optimizer & Lineups Picks This Week

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