Kyle Larson finally broke through for his first win of the season and it was also his first win since Kansas in the spring of last year. With the playoffs under way, we’ve seen two drivers (Christopher Bell and Kyle Larson) get their first wins of the season. Could we see something similar for the third straight race?

NASCAR heads to Bristol Motor Speedway for the third race of the postseason schedule. This race has been a staple in the playoffs for plenty of years now but for 2027 it’ll move to August and serve as one of the final races of the regular season. It’s somewhat disappointing but it doesn’t take away from the value or importance of the Bristol night race by any means.

We have all your coverage with the NASCAR DFS Playbook for DraftKings and FanDuel in addition to the NASCAR DFS Projections and the NASCAR DFS Ownership outlook. Let’s dive in and take a look at the top NASCAR DFS picks and lineup building strategies on DraftKings and FanDuel as we get ready for the Bass Pro Shops Night Race!

 

 

 

Bristol Motor Speedway

Bristol Motor Speedway is a track that is unique to itself. We don’t have many great comparisons to Bristol. The closest might be Dover due to its shape and surface. But Dover measures in at a full mile in length while Bristol is just a half-mile track. But they don’t call this track The Last Great Colosseum for nothing.

Seating wraps around the entire track. This is basically a bullring featuring a race track. Yes, the track is short but it has banking which makes it different from other short tracks like Martinsville and Richmond. The straights are banked at nine degrees while the turns see progressive banking ranging from 16-19 degrees. And this is one of the few tracks on the schedule that features an entirely concrete surface.

We have 500 laps on the schedule for Saturday night’s race. That may seem like a lot but they’re going to tick off about two-to-three laps per minute when this race is under a green flag. And yes, this track can breed a little chaos.

When you have 35+ cars on a short track like Bristol, it’s going to be difficult avoiding traffic. The leader only has clean air for so long. Lap traffic comes into play quickly. As you can see from the Trends table above, more than half the field is likely going to finish off the lead lap. But you can get those laps back if you strategize properly and stay competitive.

You’ve heard the phrase on NASCAR broadcasts of late that you can’t win the Cup Series Championship in the first few races, but you certainly can lose it. And that logic definitely applies to Bristol. You have to run a near perfect race at this track to go to victory lane. You can’t afford errors on pit road whether it’s due to a slow stop or a penalty. A wreck can put you laps down or just end your night in general. This is the epitome of short track racing at high speeds. Tempers will flare and the drivers will be fighting for every spot for 500 laps. It’s going to be an exciting race so let’s take a look at the NASCAR DFS picks and lineup building strategies for the Bass Pro Shops Night Race!

 

 

 

NASCAR DraftKings and FanDuel Scoring Trends with DFS Strategy

As entertaining and exciting as the racing at Bristol can be, the DFS aspect is incredibly frustrating. I won’t lie, this is one of my least favorite tracks for DFS. Hitting the optimal lineup, or maybe even a top 5% lineup is no easy task. But again, I love watching this race as a pure fan of the sport.

We have 500 laps for this race. When you account for stage breaks and cautions, we’re probably looking at roughly 320-330 dominator points being available to us. Bristol and Martinsville are the two tracks on the NASCAR schedule where we have over 300 dominator points available. And the name of the game is to get as many of those points as possible into our NASCAR DFS lineups. Pricing is difficult but based on the Trends table from the previous section, there are typically two primary dominators, but we can’t rule out a solo dominator.

But spending for all those dominator points is a challenge. As soon as you plug in two drivers in the $10K range on DraftKings, you’re immediately left with about $7,200 to spend per driver for the last four spots. And we have three drivers priced $11,000+ for this race.

We also didn’t get a practice and qualifying session on Friday because of the weather. So we have a race where building the optimal lineup is a steep task. Only at tracks like Daytona and Talladega can you argue that it’s harder to land the optimal build. But it does get easier if you lean into the notion that your value plays and punts probably aren’t finishing on the lead lap. I mention a couple drivers like that among the value plays for our NASCAR DFS picks. But getting every dominator point available across the entire pricing spectrum is paramount for DFS success at Bristol.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks & Strategy: Bass Pro Shops Night Race

There is no practice-to-qualifying table this week since both sessions were canceled on Friday due to weather.

 

NASCAR Bass Pro Shops Night Race Top Tier DFS Picks

Kyle Larson (Starting P1) – DraftKings: $11,500 | FanDuel: $14,000

Kyle Larson got his first win of the season last week and it marked his first win in well over a year despite retaining the title as the current NASCAR Cup Series Champion. Larson is getting hot at the right time. Obviously, the win at Gateway last week is huge as he looks to repeat as champion. But he also grabbed a top five at Darlington after he started deep in the field. All in all, through two playoff races he’s led 179 laps.

And now we come to Bristol where he’s been flat out awesome to say the least. Over his last eight races here, he’s finished outside the top five just once and that happened in this very race a year ago. And in that eight-race sample size, he’s won three times. In three of his last four races here, he’s led over 280 laps. He can absolutely put on a show and spank the field.

Now without practice and qualifying, we don’t know who nailed the setup. And even if we had practice and qualifying, the data would’ve been useful, but they would’ve practice in warmer conditions than they’ll race. So every driver is flying a bit blind. But Larson has the pole because of last week’s win and that gives him an easy path to dominator points in a race with 500 laps. He will likely carry at least 40% ownership in GPP contests.

Denny Hamlin (Starting P3) – DraftKings: $11,000 | FanDuel: $13,500

It’s not that Ryan Blaney is a bad play by any means. He offers PD and if he can drive through the field, he is capable of leading laps here. Blaney has finished sixth or better in four straight races at Bristol. He even finished as the runner-up with 190 laps led at this track in the spring. But he has never won here and he had better track position to work with in his last three Bristol performances.

I’m more inclined to target Denny Hamlin, who starts right behind Kyle Larson. This race has 500 laps. There are over 300 dominator points on the table. We are trying to target at least two dominators in our lineups and without practicing or qualifying, Larson and Hamlin seem like two easy candidates that fit the bill.

Hamlin has four career wins at Bristol and two of those came in the NextGen era. Granted, over his last four races at Bristol he’s only led three laps. But he did win this very race in 2023 with 142 laps led and the following spring he won again with 163 laps led. I am okay putting my faith in the Toyota’s showing up with the right setup especially considering Joe Gibbs Racing has won the last two races at this track.

Christopher Bell (Starting P12) – DraftKings: $10,700 | FanDuel: $12,000

You can certainly play the next driver if you’d prefer or even go with Chase Briscoe. Briscoe offers PD and has four straight top 10 finishes at Bristol. He even led 127 laps here a year ago after starting P31. But since the start of the 2023 season, in seven races at this track, Bell has the better average finish and driver rating than his teammate.

Bell did win this race a year ago but then finished outside the top 20 when they raced here this past spring. That result ended a streak of six consecutive top 10 finishes at this track.

Now I don’t want to rule out any of the JGR drivers because in some form or fashion, they all have immense upside. Be sure to mix and match them in across your lineups. They are all priced up and rightfully so. All four of those drivers have a path to providing huge scores.

Ty Gibbs (Starting P13) – DraftKings: $10,400 | FanDuel: $13,000

We’re getting some aggressive pricing on Gibbs for this race and I’m curious how that will impact his pricing. Yes, he did break through at Bristol in the spring for his first career Cup Series win. But some NASCAR DFS players may struggle to plug him into their builds because of the pricing and due to Larson and Hamlin having a clearer path to dominator points.

But Gibbs has seemingly always ran well at Bristol. He only led 25 laps in his winning effort in the spring. But a year ago in this race, he led 201 laps and grabbed a top 10 finish. In the spring of 2024, he grabbed another top 10 finish with 137 laps led. And in the Bass Pro Shops Night Race in 2023 he led 102 laps and finished top five.

The track history is going to be hard to pass up, but he’s shown he has win equity and dominator potential even if he doesn’t start with the best track position. So despite the aggressive pricing he has shown he can pay off in big ways at this track.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Drivers

Chase Elliott (Starting P27) – DraftKings: $8,700 | FanDuel: $10,500

Now the main goal is to primarily target dominator points for this race because of the likelihood we see two or three massive scores. Elliott’s never won here and the results over the last three Bristol races haven’t been great. He wrecked in this race a year ago and hasn’t finished in the top 10 since his runner-up finish in the night race two years ago. In fact, he’s only led 11 laps at Bristol in the NextGen era. In the six pure Bristol races before the NextGen era, he led 423 total laps.

But he’s also wildly mis-priced at just $8,700 on DraftKings. Even on FanDuel he’s a reasonable option where that site relies more on position differential and good finishes than dominator points. But at this price point and starting spot, Elliott does have a path to hitting value. And while we do tend to worry about drivers starting deeper in the field, Elliott’s talent and equipment should be good enough to keep him on the lead lap early on as he navigates the field.

Chris Buescher (Starting P23) – DraftKings: $8,300 | FanDuel: $7,800

For what it’s worth, Buescher does not come into this race with the best momentum. He’s finished outside the top 15 in five straight races. In four of those he’s finished 20th or worse so it doesn’t particularly bode well for him that this is the second playoff race in the last three weeks where we haven’t had practice and qualifying.

So we do rely a little more on track history and Buescher does have some good results here. Buescher actually won this very race four years ago in the first season of the NextGen car. You’ll recall that year was a bit wonky and carried more variance as teams adjusted to the new car. Buescher started P20 for that race, led 169 laps, and drove the car to victory lane. And in his last seven races at Bristol, he’s finished outside the top 15 just once and he typically hasn’t had the most fortunate starting spots.

So that certainly plays when trying to identify the best drivers for our NASCAR DFS picks when we don’t have practice and qualifying data. Buescher rolls off P23 for this race and he’s a playoff driver in need of points. So a good finish seems necessary, and while some of these recommendations may not live up to the billing, Buescher can return a solid score with a top 12 finish. If he can grab a top 10 and maybe some fastest laps along the way, then he has a path to 50+ fantasy points as a mid-range play. And he very well could go overlooked if a good portion of the field tries to spend up for three dominators with a stars and scrubs approach to lineup construction.

Brad Keselowski (Starting P11) – DraftKings: $8,100 | FanDuel: $9,500

I sometimes have a bad habit of throwing all three RFK Racing drivers into the NASCAR DFS Playbook and this will again be one of those weeks. I’m willing to lean into the lack of practice and qualifying as an excuse because it does hold up to an extent. The cooler conditions of night races have historically helped the Fords.

And the truth of the matter is, we want dominator points. But it’s awfully difficult spending up for three drivers over $10K on DraftKings. So you have to construct a couple lineups with the hopes a mid-range option can pull through and lead for a bit. And that’s what intrigues me about Keselowski.

He started P18 in this race a year ago. He finished eighth in the first stage. Then he was fourth in the second stage. He finished the entire race as the runner-up, and he led 33 laps. And in this race four years ago he led over 100 laps after starting P10. So he has the track position to run well early on and potentially get to the front later. It is risky but there is upside and the lack of practice and qualifying may keep his ownership numbers at bay.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks: Value Drivers

Ryan Preece (Starting P16) – DraftKings: $7,000 | FanDuel: $7,000

We really need to swing for the fences when constructing the optimal NASCAR DFS lineup for Bristol Motor Speedway. So I am obviously intrigued by Ryan Preece in this spot. But if you feel a little more inclined, then Josh Berry is a good pivot because he starts much deeper in the field. Berry had his run of six consecutive top 10 finishes snapped last week, but he has a nice safety net for Saturday night’s race.

In the case of Preece, we’re taking more risk obviously. He starts P16 so while that does mean he’s unlikely to lose the lead lap early on, it doesn’t mean he’s completely safe. This is a track where you have to be perfect. You cannot afford mistakes. Preece has shown that he can start in a similar spot and still move up and score well.

In this race in the spring he started P17 and finished eighth. In this race two years ago, he started P14 and finished seventh. So he certainly does have the ability to finish top 10 and maybe he grabs some fastest laps along the way. But at P16 he stands out as a worthwhile GPP recommendation, but I certainly wouldn’t use this driver in cash games.

Daniel Suarez (Starting P28) – DraftKings: $6,700 | FanDuel: $6,000

You shouldn’t have any trouble getting Suarez into your lineups if you’re targeting two drivers that are over $10,000 on DraftKings. When you start trying to squeeze three expensive drivers is when it may become a challenge to fit Suarez in. But he does offer a little salary relief and PD without putting himself at too much risk of being lapped early on.

In his first Bristol race with Spire Motorsports, Suarez grabbed a top 12 finish here in the spring. For DFS, the result didn’t stand out because he started P13 for that race. But we at least realized the car could hang with the best of them. 

For this race, Suarez offers some PD which is what we need to squeeze out of our value plays. He has the floor of a top 20 finish but may very well also have the upside for a second straight top 15 result.

Zane Smith (Starting P35) – DraftKings: $5,700 | FanDuel: $5,500

The ceiling for Zane Smith may certainly be a bit capped especially if he loses the lead lap. But he starts deep enough in the field that even if he doesn’t finish on the lead lap, that doesn’t mean he’s incapable of finishing in the top 20. In referring you to the Trends table up above, on average there have only been a dozen lead-lap finishers in the last five races at Bristol.

With that said, Zane can finish off the lead lap and still manage a top 20 finish which would return over 38 fantasy points. Even if he only finished 25th, that’s still a return of 27 fantasy points. We are trying to target as many dominator points as possible with our NASCAR DFS picks. Zane is cheap and gives us flexibility to spend up on a couple expensive options.

Zane comes into this race with three top 20 finishes in his last four performances at Bristol. And he had some good runs here during his tenure in the Truck Series where he finished as the runner-up in 2022 and then was top three in 2024. So even though it is likely that he loses the lead lap in this race, that doesn’t mean he’s dead in the water for our NASCAR DFS picks.

Riley Herbst (Starting P34) – DraftKings: $5,200 | FanDuel: $3,200

This isn’t the greatest play on paper. And this is the least endorsing write-up I could ever offer a driver. But you’re really looking to play Riley Herbst because he’s so cheap and he gives you some flexibility. It becomes awfully difficult to play any of the three drivers priced under $5,000 on DraftKings. With Herbst you can at least talk yourself into the safety net of the starting spot and the good equipment.

Herbst makes it easy to comfortably play two options in the $10K range and you could squeeze in a third. The lineup gets kind of ugly, but it can be done. But if you roster Herbst, you’re kind of just hoping for a top 25 result which would return 26 fantasy points on DraftKings. If this race is on the higher end of the variance spectrum and he avoids a lot of the carnage, then he has the potential for a top 20 finish. He’s not going to win and a top 10 is very unlikely. But he makes it easier to sell out for the dominator points.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Optimizer & Lineups Picks This Week

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