NASCAR DFS FireKeepers Casino 400 Playbook: Christopher Bell On Pole

There are just four more races until the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs start. That means the FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan is the last “standard” race of the regular season. One of the fastest tracks on the schedule it’s a test for teams and drivers alike to get the most speed out of their cars as possible for 400 miles of racing. Can any of the top, high-priced drivers do that for NASCAR DFS? Does this track favor drivers starting close to the front? Is Michigan a track where you can pass a lot? What are the tracks we’re comparing Michigan to this week? All of that is important for DFS on DraftKings and FanDuel this weekend at Michigan International Speedway. So of that is answered in the DFS preview podcast below, the rest is answered throughout the playbook including my favorite plays for cash and GPP contests.

Michigan Speedway Track Stats

The 2-mile track that is Michigan International Speedway is an interesting one on the NASCAR schedule. Its turns are banked at 18 degrees while the curved, D-shaped front stretch is tilted at 12 degrees. That means the smoother a driver drives his line, the faster they can go and build momentum. This is perhaps the most momentum-dependent track on the schedule. The other interesting part of the track is what it compares to in terms of other tracks. We’d think Auto Club would be one because it’s a sister track of Michigan, but the high tire wear takes it off the list. Instead we’re looking at tracks with similar banking, ones where track position matters quite a bit, and has similar tire wear. Those comparable tracks would be Pocono, Nashville, Charlotte, Kansas, Las Vegas, and Michigan from last year. That way we’re sticking with the Gen 7 cars.

FireKeepers Casino 400 DFS Strategy

Michigan more than any other track on the schedule is one where long run speed is key to how a driver will do during the race. There’s not much, if any, tire wear and even though the race is just 200 laps, there are long Green Flag runs. In three of the last five races here, there have been between 24-29 laps run under caution. That means about 175 laps run under green with speeds of 190 mph on average. AKA Green Flag speed matters. So does track position. This is one of the toughest tracks to pass on outside of restarts and in between cautions we can see big gaps develop throughout the field. The later in the race it gets, we’ll see teams gamble on keeping track position rather than pitting for new tires because track position is so important here. In fact, at the end of the Xfinity race on Saturday, Ty Gibbs led the last 23 laps despite not pitting for tires during the caution before that. When we think about how the race plays out we also need to think about the drivers who need a win on the last “standard” track before the playoffs and how that will effect their strategy throughout the race. As I said on the podcast, expect to see either one solo dominator or a race like we had last year with several drivers leading between 20-30 laps. I’m personally leaning toward seeing one driver lead about half the laps and the rest being split between two drivers. Check out the DK and FD scoring charts below for more strategy.

Practice and Qualifying Results for Michigan

The following table shows the qualifying and practice results for the FireKeepers Casino 400 based on Saturday’s Cup Series sessions. It’s designed to show you the drivers who may move up or fall back during the race and who had the best long-run speeds at practice.

DraftKings and FanDuel Scoring History At Michigan

The following charts show the average points by starting position on DraftKings and FanDuel over the last five Michigan races (excluding the 2nd back-to-back race in 2020). It’s based strictly on starting spot and regardless of the driver in that starting spot each race.

Stacks

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