Back-to-back. Two weeks ago it was Blaney at +1100 off the pole, and last week I handed you Joey Logano at +1100 and the man led 323 of 450 laps at North Wilkesboro like the track owed him money. The Logano Top 5 at +135 rode shotgun for the easiest cash of the summer. Full honesty on the rest: Bell at +450 was my anchor and he wandered home 19th, Reddick got dumped at pit entry through zero fault of his own and finished 30th, Chastain never showed, and Ty Gibbs ran fourth, which cashed exactly nothing because I had him top three and to win. One spot. I have not forgotten, and neither has he. But when the headline bet is the race winner at 11-1 two weeks running, you take the bow and reload.

Now the big one. The Brickyard 400 goes green Sunday at 2 p.m. ET on TNT, 160 laps around the flat 2.5-mile rectangle at Indianapolis, and this place has quietly become the best chaos bet on the schedule. Both Next Gen Brickyards went to double overtime. The guy who led the most laps has won just three of the last ten runnings here. Long straights, one lane that matters, and everything decided by pit calls and late restarts. You want speed, sure, but what you really want is a car near the front when the last caution flies.

Qualifying gave us a fun board. Carson Hocevar stuck it on the pole at 186.598 mph, Daniel Suarez next to him, and then a murderer’s row: Reddick third, Ty Gibbs fourth, Hamlin fifth. The back half is where the story lives, though. Bell starts 23rd, Elliott 27th, and defending winner Bubba Wallace rolls off 29th. And hanging over the whole thing is the In-Season Challenge final, Blaney against Todd Gilliland, the 3 seed versus the 25 seed, a million bucks on the line, with Gilliland starting 36th. Track position matters here, but Indy has a habit of shredding the running order in the last twenty laps, and my card leans into both truths.

 

 

 

Brickyard 400 Best Bets: Winner Predictions

Kyle Larson (+550 at FanDuel Sportsbook) 0.75u

The most overdue man in motorsports. Larson won this race in 2024 in double overtime, lost it last year to Wallace by hundredths of a second, and has spent 2026 leading 637 laps with eight top fives and somehow zero wins.

That is not a slump, that is a spring loading. He starts 10th, close enough to control his day at the track where he has been the best car two straight Julys. The books keep taking money on Hamlin, which leaves the guy with the actual Brickyard trophy at +550. I will take the driver who has led the last two of these into the final restart.

Tyler Reddick (+750 at DraftKings Sportsbook) 0.5u

Wipe last week off the books. Reddick’s North Wilkesboro ended when Bowman darted for pit road and turned him into a passenger, and none of it was his doing.

What matters Sunday: he starts third, he is second in points, and 23XI just won this exact race a year ago with Bubba. The team knows how to close at Indy, and Reddick has the clean-air real estate from the drop of the green. At +750 you are getting a top-three car at the track position price. Bet the bounce-back.

Ty Gibbs (+1500 at FanDuel Sportsbook) 0.5u

The kid owes me one spot and I am going back for it with interest.

Gibbs ran fourth at North Wilkesboro, starts fourth Sunday, and this is the track where he banked the million-dollar In-Season Challenge title last summer. Say what you want about the finish that day, he knows how to survive an Indy afternoon when there is money on the table. JGR brings real speed everywhere right now, and +1500 for a front-two-row car with recent form is the best mid-range number on the board.

 

 

 

Brickyard 400 Predictions 2026 - Long Shot Winners

Bubba Wallace (+1600 at BetMGM Sportsbook) 0.5u

The defending winner of this race is 16-1. Read that again.

Yes, the 29th starting spot is why, and at most tracks it would scare me off. But Wallace closed at +1100 when he won this thing last year, he beat Kyle Larson straight up through two overtimes to do it, and he just ran sixth at North Wilkesboro, so the car is alive. Indy races get decided by the last pit call and the last restart, which is exactly how a fast car from the back steals it. The price is paying you for the qualifying sheet and ignoring the trophy.

Carson Hocevar (+2200 at Caesars Sportsbook) 0.25u

The pole sitter is 22-1 at the track where clean air is worth its weight in bricks.

Hocevar has been fast all season, sits seventh in points, and now gets to see what the No. 77 can do with nobody in front of it. The kid has zero fear and the field is going to have to come take it from him. If he controls the first stage the number looks silly by lap 40.

Joey Logano (+3500 at BetMGM Sportsbook) 0.25u

I am not getting off this train at 35-1.

The man led 323 laps last week, his most ever, and Penske arrives with a million-dollar dog in the fight and every reason to bring their best stuff. He starts 19th, which at Indy means nothing once the strategy game starts, and nobody on pit road calls a better late race than the 22 box. Champ’s rolling. Small ticket, big grin if it lands.

 

 

 

Brickyard 400 Predictions 2026 - Fades

Denny Hamlin (+375 at Caesars Sportsbook)

The shortest price on the board belongs to a man who is 0-for-17 in this race.

Let me be fair: Hamlin leads the points, he starts fifth, and he ran third here last year. He is going to be around the front all day. But he has been around the front at Indy for twenty years, with a stack of podiums and not one kiss of the bricks, and 2024 ended in the fence. At +375 you are paying the points-leader tax for a track that has told him no seventeen straight times. If he finally breaks through, I will golf clap from the window where I am cashing something else. Pass on the price, not the person.

Christopher Bell (+850 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

Great driver, wrong zip code. Bell starts 23rd at a 2.5-mile where the whole race is a fight for the same piece of air.

His Indy numbers are legitimately good, which is exactly why the price has not drifted to where his starting spot says it should. The books are all over the map on him, FanDuel has him as short as +700, and that tells you the number is built on name and season-long speed, not on Sunday’s math. Row 12 with 39 cars and one lane is a lot of traffic between him and the trophy. Pass.

 

 

 

NASCAR Prop Picks: Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway

Same philosophy as always: the position markets are where the books get lazy, and this week they are paying plus money on cars starting at the front of a track-position race.

Carson Hocevar Top 5 (+275 at BetRivers Sportsbook) 0.5u

Plus money on the pole sitter to simply stay in the neighborhood. DraftKings has this at +220, BetRivers is handing out +275, take the better number. He starts with the best real estate at the track where real estate is everything.

Joey Logano Top 10 (+135 at BetRivers Sportsbook) 0.5u

The calm version of the 35-1 dart. The hottest driver in the sport, with a team playing for a million dollars, at plus money just to crack the ten from 19th. That is fair juice for a car that led 323 laps seven days ago.

Ty Gibbs Top 3 (+400 at DraftKings Sportsbook) 0.25u

The revenge ticket. He ran fourth last week and burned my +450 top three by a single spot, and now he starts fourth at a track where JGR is fast and he has already cashed a seven-figure check. Same bet, better track position, and this time he pays the debt.

Todd Gilliland Top 10 (+800 at DraftKings Sportsbook) 0.25u

The Toddfather has finished sixth in back-to-back Brickyards, and now he is 8-1 to do what he has done here two straight years, with a million extra reasons to send it. The 36th starting spot is why the number is fat, and his own history says this track comes to him anyway. Best storyline dart on the board.

 

 

 

Final Thoughts on the 2026 Brickyard 400

Indy is a track-position race that keeps getting settled by chaos, so build the card both ways. Larson is the anchor because the best car in 2026 is due at his best track. Reddick and Gibbs are the clean-air plays off the second row. Underneath, the defending winner at 16-1 from the back, the pole sitter at 22-1, and the hottest man alive at 35-1 cover the late-restart lottery this place loves to run.

Fade the favorite until the favorite proves the yard is not cursed, fade the anchor-priced car in row 12, and keep one eye on Blaney and Gilliland racing each other for a million bucks inside all of it.

Two straight weeks we cashed the winner. Let’s go kiss the bricks and make it three. That’s the ticket.