MLB DFS Value Vault May 2: Chris Paddack in a Groove
After you set your weekly lineups for seasonal leagues, it’s then time to kick off the week by finishing in the green on the DFS side. DraftKings and FanDuel get things started at 6:40 with a six-game slate, and Yahoo follows 20 minutes later with five games on their docket. To balance out the high-priced building blocks, let’s take a look at some more reasonably priced options.
DFS Value Pitchers
Jake Odorizzi (HOU); DraftKings - $6,200; FanDuel - $6,200; Yahoo - $29
Odorizzi was almost on his way out of the Astros’ rotation, but for the time being Houston is rolling with six starters. After allowing nine earned runs in nine innings over his first three starts, Odorizzi bounced back against Texas as he picked up his first victory of the season in his last outing. Odorizzi limited Texas to just a solo home run and a walk over six innings while striking out four and taking advantage of the large Rangers’ ballpark with 11 fly ball outs. Tonight, the right-hander takes on the Mariners at home as he looks to keep the momentum going. With a 4.34 xERA we should, at the least, get a quality start out of Odorizzi in what should be a winnable matchup.
Chris Paddack (MIN); DraftKings - $7,200; FanDuel - $7,800; Yahoo - $36
Anytime I can target Baltimore, and get a bargain while doing so, it’s a good night. Paddack faces a Baltimore team that has just 10 home runs on the season while batting just .211 and offers up little, if any opposition. Over his last two starts, Paddack has allowed just three runs in 10.2 innings on 10 hits and one walk while striking out 10. Historically, Paddack has had above average control with just 1.84 walks per nine innings, and that trend is continuing so far this year with just 0.61.
Despite a .356 BABIP, Paddack’s ERA is just 3.68 with his FIP clocking in at just 1.69 along with a ground ball rate of 51.2%. And did I mention that Paddack is facing the Orioles tonight?
DFS Value Hitters
Trevor Larnach, OF (MIN); DraftKings - $2,500; FanDuel - $2,400; Yahoo - $13
Everything is working for Larnach’s tonight as he gets the platoon advantage in a favorable matchup against Alexander Wells and the Orioles. Larnach has two hits in three of his last five games and he is hitting .288 on the season with seven RBI in 52 at bats. The Minnesota outfielder is hitting the ball well with a 45.5% hard-hit rate and 90.3 mile per hour exit velocity and while he doesn’t have above-average power, he is in a good situation tonight if you are looking to stack Twins bats.
Aaron Hicks, OF (NYY); FanDuel - $2,600; Yahoo - $15
Before going hitless on Sunday, Hicks had hits in four straight games as the Yankees’ offense has been rounding into form as of late. Through 18 games this season, Hicks is hitting .283 with eight runs scored and four RBI to go along with a .400 OBP. For as long as Hicks stays healthy, and in the lineup, there is value here atop New York’s lineup, but his price on DK takes him out of the value tier.
Jorge Soler, OF (MIA); FanDuel - $2,800
Soler is too expensive on DK ($4,400) and not available on Yahoo, but even though two outfielders were already included above, I couldn’t pass him up. It has been a slow start to the season for Soler as he is hitting just .185 on the season, but there is always the possibility he goes deep on any given night.
The outfielder went deep for the second time in three games on Sunday, third overall, and tonight we look to Soler to keep the momentum rolling.
Kevin Smith, 3B/SS (OAK); DraftKings - $2,100; FanDuel - $2,000; Yahoo - $7
Smith is minimum priced tonight, well $100 above it on DK, and that alone should put him on our radar against Drew Rasmussen and Tampa Bay. Since returning from the Injured List, Smith has four hits in eight at bats and it appears that Oakland has slotted him back into the lineup. Half of Smith’s batted balls have been hard hit so far this season, and it doesn’t get much cheaper than him, so there is some value in looking his way.
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