Trey Yesavage Underdog MLB Picks Today, 9/21: Baseball Projections + More

Monday's top two Underdog plays come from the same AL East series, with a returning top prospect projecting over on a limited pitch count and the opposing starter still shaking off a scary comebacker projecting under, for Underdog Fantasy. Before you lock in your Higher or Lower calls, cross-check the numbers with our MLB Player Prop Tool and track how our staff is doing on the board with the MLB Expert Picks Tracker.

Trey Yesavage MLB Underdog Fantasy Pick: Higher than 3.5 Strikeouts

Yesavage returns tonight from left knee surgery, with the Blue Jays planning to limit him to roughly three innings and 45-to-50 pitches in his first outing back. His lone rehab appearance was rough, lasting less than an inning, but his 23.6 percent strikeout rate on the season is a step above average. Baltimore carries a 25.3 percent strikeout rate against right-handed pitching that has climbed to an elite 28.7 percent over the last two weeks, one of the best matchup numbers on the board. That combination of a genuinely favorable, trending-hotter opponent and a modest bar of just four strikeouts gives him a real path to clearing this number.

Shane Baz MLB Underdog Fantasy Pick: Lower than 3.5 Strikeouts

Baz was drilled in the elbow by a comebacker in his last start and had to be removed early, and even though he's been cleared to pitch tonight, the recent scare adds real uncertainty about his sharpness. He's been rocked over his last two outings, allowing eight runs on 13 hits with just seven strikeouts against three walks in that stretch. Toronto carries just an 18.1 percent strikeout rate against right-handed pitching for the season that has stayed nearly identical over the last two weeks, one of the least strikeout-prone lineups in baseball. That combination of injury uncertainty, poor recent form, and a contact-oriented opponent makes the under the smarter side of this number.

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