Looking for the best Underdog Fantasy MLB picks today? Our Underdog MLB Pick'em predictions for Wednesday, September 16th, spotlight two MLB player props worth targeting on today’s action-packed MLB slate. The lines for Riley Greene’s hits+runs+RBI and Merrill Kelly’s walks allowed both come with clear situational edges backed by current form, matchup data, and recent trends. If you are building your Underdog Pick'em entry for today’s MLB slate, here is the full case for where we land on both and why the MLB DFS projections set up the way they do.

What are the Best Underdog MLB Pick'em Picks Today?

Today’s two best Underdog Fantasy MLB Pick'em plays are Riley Greene over 1.5 hits+runs+RBI and Merrill Kelly over 1.5 walks allowed. Both props are supported by matchup data, current streaks, and favorable line construction heading into an action-packed day of baseball. Read below for the complete analysis on each.

 

 

 

Riley Greene OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI

When Riley Greene gets going, watch out. Not only does he have four straight multi-hit games, but he has six multi-hit efforts in his last nine games, and across those nine contests, he’s slashing .486/.513/.973. Also, how does four home runs, eight runs scored, and 15 RBI across those nine games sound? He has a .228 ISO on the road this year, and a .204 ISO against right-handed pitching.

Over his last five starts, Max Scherzer has a 6.08 ERA and 4.41 FIP, and for the 2026 season, Scherzer’s 6.75 ERA and 2.05 HR/9 pales in comparison to his 5.70 ERA and 1.52 HR/9 on the road. Lefties have given Scherzer fits at times (.277 BAA, 1.99 HR/9), and there may not be a hotter left-handed hitter on the planet than Greene at this moment.

Merrill Kelly OVER 1.5 Walks Allowed

Kelly’s 10.2 percent walk rate on the year would be the highest of his career, and he’s walked three or more batters in seven of his last eight starts (13.4 BB%). The Arizona right-hander boasts a 12% walk rate against left-handed hitters, and today’s opponent, the Miami Marlins, likely have five or six lefties in their lineup. Furthermore, over the last 30 days, the Marlins are one of nine teams to have a double-digit walk rate against RHP, and overall in 2026, they have the 10th-highest walk rate against RHP.

 

 

 

Claim Your Underdog Fantasy Promo Code Bonus

If you have not yet signed up for Underdog Fantasy, there is no better time than tonight. New users who register using promo code ALARM will receive a free pick plus $50 instantly, giving you real money to work with on this slate and every MLB game going forward. Visit fantasyalarm.com/offers to lock in your bonus before the evening games get underway.