Paul Skenes Underdog MLB Picks Today, 9/12: Baseball Projections + More

Saturday's top two Underdog plays go in opposite directions, with Paul Skenes projecting under in the biggest start of his career and Michael King projecting over against an opponent he has owned throughout his career, for Underdog Fantasy. Before you lock in your Higher or Lower calls, cross-check the numbers with our MLB Player Prop Tool and track how our staff is doing on the board with the MLB Expert Picks Tracker.

Paul Skenes MLB Underdog Fantasy Pick: Lower than 5.5 Strikeouts

Skenes has not looked like his dominant self lately, throwing just 25.1 innings across his last five starts with only 19 strikeouts against nine walks, and his longest outing in that stretch was six innings. His velocity is back, but command issues with his off-speed stuff have lingered, and Chicago's strikeout rate against right-handed pitching has cooled to 18.1 percent over the last two weeks, down from a 21.6 percent season mark. This is also the biggest start of his career with Pittsburgh fighting for wild-card positioning, adding pressure to an already shaky recent stretch. That combination of declining swing-and-miss volume and a cooling opponent makes the under the smarter side of this number.

Michael King MLB Underdog Fantasy Pick: Higher than 4.5 Strikeouts

King has been excellent all season, backing a 10-9 record and 3.00 ERA with 144 strikeouts, and he has a strong history against tonight's opponent, going 3-1 with a 2.22 ERA in five career games against San Francisco, including seven shutout innings in his last appearance at Oracle Park. San Diego is riding a five-game winning streak and needs this win to hold its lead in a tight NL wild-card race. San Francisco carries a 21.9 percent strikeout rate against right-handed pitching for the season, a fair matchup that plays into King's deep arsenal. That combination of a proven track record against this exact opponent and meaningful stakes gives him a clear path to clearing this modest number.

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