Paul Skenes Underdog MLB Picks Today, 5/6: Baseball Projections + More

Quick Summary of Today’s Top Underdog MLB Picks: 

• Paul Skenes (PIT): Higher Than 5.5 Strikeouts
• Bailey Ober (MIN): Lower Than 5.5 Hits Allowed

The 2026 MLB season is now in full swing. It’s been an entertaining first month of baseball with plenty of highlights, storylines, and breakout players to watch. Let’s now focus on the Wednesday, May 6th slate of games with our top Underdog MLB Picks. We’ll break down a pair of MLB DFS projections to lock in as you enjoy today’s action. 

Underdog Fantasy MLB Picks: Wednesday, 5/6

Paul Skenes MLB Underdog Fantasy Pick: Higher Than 5.5 Strikeouts

Paul Skenes is coming off a rough start last week, allowing 5 runs to the Cardinals. Before that, though, the Pittsburgh Pirates’ ace posted a dominant 0.95 ERA and 29:5 K:BB ratio over his previous 5 outings. Let’s bank on Skenes to bounce back in a favorable matchup on Wednesday night. 

Despite giving up a bunch of runs last time out, Skenes still struck out 9 against St. Louis. He also punched out 7 in his prior start vs. Milwaukee. The right-hander boasts a strong 29.3% strikeout rate this year (89th MLB percentile), which is trending back in line with previous elite seasons. He had a 29.5% K rate last year and a 33.1% K rate in 2024. 

Skenes will take on an Arizona offense that has a lofty 29.5% strikeout rate vs. right-handed pitching over the past week, the 2nd-highest mark in the majors. The Diamondbacks are also batting just .202 vs. righties in this stretch (27th in MLB). Plus, they have a 23.5% K rate in the split overall this season (8th-highest). 

Skenes should handle this lineup, even on the road. He boasts a 32.8% strikeout rate and 2.05 FIP on the road during his career. He averaged 6.9 Ks per road start last year as well. Skenes has higher than 5.5 strikeouts in 4 of his last 5 starts and should do it again today. 

• MLB Underdog Fantasy Pick: Paul Skenes Higher Than 5.5 Strikeouts 

Bailey Ober MLB Underdog Fantasy Pick: Lower Than 5.5 Hits Allowed

After some iffy starts to begin the season, Bailey Ober has been pitching well over the last month. The Minnesota Twins’ right-hander owns a 2.70 ERA over his past 5 starts, with 2 runs allowed or fewer in 4 of those outings. Count on Ober to keep it going against the Washington Nationals on Wednesday. 

Specifically, let’s back Ober to allow fewer than 5.5 hits in this matchup. He’s been lower than that number in 6 of 7 starts this year. Plus, he has just a .211 batting average against thus far. Ober has had some issues with walks, but he usually limits the hits. 

Meanwhile, the Nationals have a league-low .194 batting average vs. right-handed pitching over the past two weeks. They also have an MLB-worst .146 average against righties over the last week of games. It’s an ideal spot for Ober to post another solid outing. His 30.1% hard-hit rate allowed (89th MLB percentile) should play well against this Washington lineup. 

• MLB Underdog Fantasy Pick: Bailey Ober Lower Than 5.5 Hits Allowed