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  1. What are the Best Underdog MLB Pick'em Picks Today?
  2. Paul Skenes UNDER 1.5 Walks Allowed
  3. Elly De La Cruz OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
  4. Claim Your Underdog Fantasy Promo Code Bonus

Looking for the best Underdog Fantasy MLB picks today? Our Underdog MLB Pick'em predictions for Thursday, April 30, 2026, spotlight two MLB player props worth targeting on today’s action-packed MLB slate. Paul Skenes’ walks allowed, and Elly De La Cruz’s hits+runs+RBI both come with clear situational edges backed by current form, matchup data, and recent trends. If you are building your Underdog Pick'em entry for tonight's MLB slate, here is the full case for where we land on both and why the numbers set up the way they do.

What are the Best Underdog MLB Pick'em Picks Today?

Today’s two best Underdog Fantasy MLB Pick'em plays are Paul Skenes under 1.5 walks allowed and Elly De La Cruz over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI. Both props are supported by matchup data, current streaks, and favorable line construction heading into an action-packed day of baseball. Read below for the complete analysis on each.

 

 

 

Paul Skenes UNDER 1.5 Walks Allowed

After a rough first start to the season, Skenes has been excellent to say the least. Over his last five starts, he’s a perfect 4-0 with a 0.95 ERA and minuscule 1.59 BB/9. Furthermore, he’s walked just one batter over his last three starts (17 IP), and he’s been dominant when pitching in his home park. He has a 5.1 BB% at home this season, and for the entire 2025 season, his walk rate was just 5.1% at home!

He’ll take on the Cardinals today, a team that he’s posted a 1.67 BB/9 against for his young career (6 starts). Additionally, the Cardinals have the fifth-lowest walk rate in baseball over the last two weeks (7.7%), and they are slightly below-average for the entire year in terms of walk rate against RHP (9.5%).

If he can continue to throw a first-pitch strike to nearly two-thirds of the batters he faces, he should be just fine in this one.

Elly De La Cruz OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI

Despite a 0-for-4 day at the plate yesterday, I expect De La Cruz to bounce back on Thursday. He’s still slashing an impressive .357/.438/.786 over his last seven days, not to mention four home runs, eight runs scored, and 11 RBI! He’ll enjoy the hitter-friendly confines of Great American Ball Park, a venue where he’s been exceptional this season. At home this year, he has a 1.062 OPS, .354 ISO, and .455 wOBA. For comparison’s sake, his road marks sit at .778, .218, and .341, respectively.

De La Cruz and the Reds will take on Colorado’s Michael Lorenzen today, who, to his credit, is coming off his best start of the year. However, even with that outing, he has a 5.97 ERA and 4.55 FIP on the year. While he does have a road ERA of 3.60 on the young season, he’s still served up a .323 average to opposing hitters, and I have to call out his 4.32 FIP and 1.47 WHIP. Oh, maybe I buried the lede here, but Lorezen has surrendered a .426 AVG, .705 SLG, and .495 wOBA to left-handed hitters this season!

I love a lefty against Michael Lorenzen, and with near double-digit winds blowing out to right field, it should be a good day for the surging De La Cruz.

 

 

 

Claim Your Underdog Fantasy Promo Code Bonus

If you have not yet signed up for Underdog Fantasy, there is no better time than tonight. New users who register using promo code ALARM will receive a free pick plus $50 instantly, giving you real money to work with on this slate and every MLB game going forward. Visit fantasyalarm.com/offers to lock in your bonus before the evening games get underway.