Nick Pivetta Underdog MLB Picks Today, 10/6: Baseball Projections + More

Tuesday's top two Underdog plays come from the NLDS Game 3s, with one arm attacking a Brewers lineup that has gotten much more strikeout-prone lately and the other facing a Dodgers lineup that has stopped striking out against lefties, for Underdog Fantasy. Before you lock in your Higher or Lower calls, cross-check the numbers with our MLB Player Prop Tool and track how our staff is doing on the board with the MLB Expert Picks Tracker.

Nick Pivetta MLB Underdog Fantasy Pick: Higher than 3.5 Strikeouts

Pivetta carries a 30.0 percent strikeout rate and 10.9 K/9, and he has been sharp since returning from a nearly five-month absence in September, posting a 1.45 ERA across four starts. He struck out four over 3.1 innings against the Cubs in the Wild Card Series, the same short-leash profile he will work with tonight. Milwaukee's strikeout rate against right-handed pitching has jumped to 29.6 percent over the last two weeks, up from a 22.7 percent season mark. With San Diego facing elimination, the hook will be quick, but three or four innings at his rate is enough to clear this number.

Chris Sale MLB Underdog Fantasy Pick: Lower than 7.5 Strikeouts

Los Angeles carries just a 20.0 percent strikeout rate against left-handed pitching for the season, and that mark has sunk to 17.2 percent over the last two weeks. Sale struck out 11 against this lineup on August 27, but that was a complete-game shutout, and eight strikeouts take about six and a half innings at his 11.1 K/9 pace. October hooks come quicker, even with Atlanta holding him back in Game 2 to get a full-strength version. Freddie Freeman, who is 5 for 16 with two homers against Sale in his career, has struck out just once in seven at-bats this series.

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