Gavin Williams Underdog MLB Picks Today, 9/14: Baseball Projections + More

Monday's top two Underdog plays feature a Guardians ace who was deliberately rested to open a pivotal series and a two-time Cy Young winner riding his best stretch yet with the Dodgers, for Underdog Fantasy. Before you lock in your Higher or Lower calls, cross-check the numbers with our MLB Player Prop Tool and track how our staff is doing on the board with the MLB Expert Picks Tracker.

Gavin Williams MLB Underdog Fantasy Pick: Higher than 7.5 Strikeouts

Williams was intentionally held back several days by Cleveland to open this massive series on full rest, and he's riding a stretch of double-digit strikeouts in eight of his last 11 outings, including 11 punchouts over six innings in his last start against Detroit. He carries a 13-7 record and 3.78 ERA with 228 strikeouts across 169 innings, a pace north of 12 strikeouts per nine, and he has piled up 60 strikeouts over his last 35.2 innings alone. Chicago carries the league's third-highest strikeout rate in September at 26.7 percent, and the White Sox have lost five of their last six games while hitting a league-worst .200 as a team this month. That combination of elite recent form and a cold, strikeout-prone opponent gives him a clear path to clearing this number.

Tarik Skubal MLB Underdog Fantasy Pick: Higher than 7.5 Strikeouts

Skubal has found another level over his last four starts with the Dodgers, and his most recent outing against these same Reds was his best yet, working into the eighth inning for the first time since the trade while allowing just two runs on four hits with five strikeouts. For the season, he carries a 9-7 record with a 2.84 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and 164 strikeouts against just 24 walks over 139.2 innings. Cincinnati carries a 24.5 percent strikeout rate against left-handed pitching for the season that has stayed strong at 23.2 percent over the last two weeks, a favorable matchup against a Reds offense that has just been blown out 20-0 and 13-9 in Milwaukee. That combination of a pitcher trending upward and a struggling opponent gives him a clear path to clearing this number.

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