Chase Burns Underdog MLB Picks Today, 3/30: Baseball Projections + More

Looking for the best Underdog Fantasy MLB picks today? Our experts at Fantasy Alarm break down Monday's top pitcher props for Opening Week, targeting the highest-value Higher/Lower entries across earned runs, strikeouts, and more. Whether you're building a single entry or stacking multiple legs, we've done the homework so you don't have to. Check out Fantasy Alarm's Underdog MLB picks page for daily projections, lineup advice, and sharp prop analysis all season long.

Jacob Lopez Underdog MLB Pick'em — Higher 2.5 Earned Runs

Oakland Athletics at Atlanta Braves | ~7:20 PM ET

The case against Lopez tonight starts with where he is pitching and who he is pitching to. His road splits from 2025 tell a brutal story: a 5.40 ERA and .779 opponents' OPS across 12 away starts compared to a 2.64 ERA and .655 OPS in nine home starts. That gap is not noise; it is the defining characteristic of his profile. A soft-tossing lefty who thrives at home and gets beaten up everywhere else is exactly the profile you fade when he opens a road series.

Atlanta has historically destroyed left-handed pitching. The Braves lineup features one of the deepest collections of right-handed power in the National League, with Ronald Acuna, Matt Olson, and Austin Riley capable of doing serious damage against arm-angle and off-speed pitchers like Lopez. His career home run split says everything: 16 of his 17 career home runs have been surrendered to right-handed hitters. Oakland also arrives in Atlanta on a cold stretch, having been struck out 50 times across three games in Toronto to open the season. There is no run support cushion behind this start, and there is no favorable matchup to lean on. Everything points in one direction.

Chase Burns Underdog MLB Pick'em — Higher 7.5 Strikeouts

Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds | ~6:40 PM ET

The strikeout case for Burns does not rest on projection or potential. It rests on what he has already done in a limited big-league sample. His debut performance against the Yankees, when he struck out the first five batters he faced, was not a fluke. He recorded double-digit punchouts in four of his first eight career starts, and his two primary weapons, a fastball that touches triple digits and a slider generating nearly a 44 percent whiff rate, are among the most swing-and-miss offerings any young starter brings to a mound this season.

The Pittsburgh lineup is the ideal matchup to reestablish rhythm early in the year. The Pirates come in having dropped two straight extra-inning games, and their lineup has not yet settled into a consistent offensive identity. Burns enters the game with his best spring behind him, having struck out the side in the first inning of his final tuneup against Milwaukee. The home crowd, a favorable game environment projected to be low-scoring, and a cold Pittsburgh lineup all set the table for a dominant outing from one of the most electric young arms in the game. Seven and a half is a number this pitcher has already cleared multiple times in fewer than a dozen career starts.

Cody Ponce Underdog MLB Pick'em — Higher 5.5 Strikeouts

Colorado Rockies at Toronto Blue Jays | ~7:07 PM ET

What makes the Ponce strikeout prop compelling is the combination of improved stuff, a dream matchup, and a line that does not fully account for either. When Ponce last appeared in MLB in 2021, his fastball sat at 93.2 mph, and he was still generating a 32.4 percent chase rate with average command. After four years abroad, he returned to spring training sitting at 96 mph with a genuine splitter added to the arsenal. That velocity jump on a pitcher with his extension and release point changes the entire equation for opposing hitters trying to time him.

Colorado comes to Rogers Centre at 0-3 and carries a strikeout profile that has consistently ranked among the worst against power arms in the National League over recent seasons. Ponce posted a 0.66 ERA and 0.81 WHIP over 13.2 Grapefruit League innings with a 12-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio, flashing the kind of dominance that earned him the KBO MVP just months ago. The Blue Jays' home environment is familiar, supportive, and a far cry from the hostile adjustments of pitching overseas. Even with reasonable first-start rust baked into expectations, a 96 mph fastball paired with a wipeout splitter against a struggling Rockies lineup makes Higher 5.5 one of the cleanest plays on the entire Monday card.

Build Your Underdog Pick'em Entry Today

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