The MLB playoffs march on, which means another day of top MLB Underdog Pick'em plays for Thursday, October 16th, 2025! If you’re looking to crush your MLB player props and pick'em contests, we’ve got you covered with two strong selections for today’s action. Before we dive in, if you haven’t signed up at Underdog yet, use the promo code ALARM at signup, and you’ll get an instant deposit match up to $1,000 in bonus cash, plus a free pick to parlay with these recommendations. Let’s get into the plays!

 

 

 

Underdog Fantasy MLB Picks: Thursday, 10/16; MLB DFS Projections

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Luis Castillo Underdog MLB Pick - Lower Than 4.5 Strikeouts

Castillo is on the better side of his home/road splits, sure, but this is not a matchup conducive to a boatload of strikeouts for the veteran righty. For starters, he recorded just four strikeouts across 6 IP against the Tigers in the divisional round, and the Tigers had the third-highest K% for the year against RHP, whereas Toronto has the second-lowest! In the postseason, the Blue Jays are striking out just 14.4 percent of the time versus right-handed pitchers!

In two matchups against the Blue Jays in the regular season, Castillo recorded just eight strikeouts in 10 IP, not to mention eight earned runs on 17 hits.

Castillo posted a sub-20% strikeout rate versus lefties in the regular season, and aside from the lefties, the triumvirate of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Alejandro Kirk, and Ernie Clement has a strikeout rate of just 7.3% in the postseason!

Castillo’s slider is his go-to for whiffs, and Toronto ranked fourth in runs above average per 100 pitches versus sliders during the regular season.

Pick: Lower Than 4.5 Strikeouts (1.57x)

 

 

 

Cal Raleigh Underdog MLB Pick - Higher Than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI

Raleigh has surpassed this mark in seven of eight postseason games, and I love this matchup against Max Scherzer. The veteran righty was left off the team’s ALDS roster, but supposedly, he’s much better from a physical standpoint now? It’s mentioned in that article that some physical issues were impacting his offspeed stuff, but the fact remains that Scherzer limped to the finish line in the regular season, surrendering a 9.00 ERA, 6.18 FIP, and 2.88 HR/9 over his final six starts.

Scherzer is on the wrong side of his home/road splits, and left-handed hitters posted a .545 SLG and 2.45 HR/9 against him in the regular season. Plus, Raleigh has impressive numbers against Scherzer’s two main pitches:

  • Raleigh vs. Fastballs: .597 SLG, .614 xSLG
  • Raleigh vs. Sliders: .523 SLG, .359 wOBA

Lastly, to wrap it all up, Raleigh is slashing .385/.500/.769 vs. RHP in the postseason, not to mention a .267 ISO and .545 BABIP.

Pick: Higher Than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (1.77x)

 

 

 

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