Looking for the best Underdog Fantasy MLB picks today? Our Underdog MLB Pick'em predictions for Sunday, October 4, spotlight two MLB player props worth targeting on today’s action-packed MLB slate. The lines for Blake Snell’s strikeouts and Jackson Merrill’s hits both come with clear situational edges backed by current form, matchup data, and recent trends. If you are building your Underdog Pick'em entry for today’s MLB slate, here is the full case for where we land on both and why the MLB DFS projections are set up the way they do.

 

 

 

What are the Best Underdog MLB Pick'em Picks Today?

Today’s two best Underdog Fantasy MLB Pick'em plays are Blake Snell 6.5 strikeouts and Jackson Merrill over 0.5 hits. Both props are supported by matchup data, current streaks, and favorable line construction heading into an action-packed day of baseball. Read below for the complete analysis on each.

Blake Snell HIGHER THAN 6.5 Strikeouts

In 82.2 career postseason innings, Snell has a 30.8 K%, and just last season, he recorded at least seven strikeouts in four of his five postseason starts. Snell only made nine starts in the regular season, but all of the numbers were right on par with the year’s past, and in fact, his 39.8% O-Swing rate would have been a career best; his 15.8% SwStr% would have been his second-best in the last half-decade.

For the 2026 season, the Braves posted the ninth-lowest wOBA against left-handed pitching, and while the team’s strikeout rate for the entire season doesn’t look terrible at 21.4%, they really struggled as the season came to an end. Since September 1, the Braves hit lefties at a measly .216 clip, with a .260 wOBA, 61 wRC+, and a 25.1% strikeout rate.

Jackson Merrill HIGHER THAN 0.5 Hits

Dating back to September 1, Merrill is slashing .365/.397/.556 against RHP, not to mention a 53.1% hard-hit rate and 18.4% barrel rate. His lone hit yesterday was a home run, and after a disappointing first half of the season, Merrill was phenomenal in the second half. Milwaukee’s Logan Henderson is primarily a four-seamer and changeup against left-handed hitters, and you’ll see in the chart below that Merrill’s numbers against these pitches got better as the year went on, culminating in a .591 SLG and .556 SLG against four-seamers and changeups in September, respectively.

 

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If you have not yet signed up for Underdog Fantasy, there is no better time than tonight. New users who register using promo code ALARM will receive a free pick plus $50 instantly, giving you real money to work with on this slate and every MLB game going forward. Visit fantasyalarm.com/offers to lock in your bonus before the evening games get underway.