MLB Streaks & Trends: Taj Bradley Looking Like A Fantasy Ace

From today until the end of the Major League Baseball season, Saturday is for looking at the various streaks and trends across the MLB, as well as those fantasy baseball players with rising or falling stock. Who should be your priority waiver wire pickups? Who deserves some of your precious FAAB? Are there any potential fantasy baseball buy-low trade candidates? As we look around the league, prospect Taj Bradley looks to be a permanent part of the Tampa Bay rotation moving forward with the latest injury to Jeffrey Springs. Bradley’s teammate Harold Ramirez is white hot, and out in the Windy City, Patrick Wisdom of the Chicago Cubs won’t stop hitting home runs, as he leads the MLB in slugging percentage. However, guys like Brady Singer, Masataka Yoshida, and Michael Kopech have disappointed fantasy managers to begin the 2023 season, en route to getting the fantasy baseball bust label thrown their way. Let’s take a look at some of the notable hit streaks and current trends across Major League Baseball, as well as fantasy baseball risers and fallers.

Fantasy Baseball Risers

Jose Alvarado, Philadelphia Phillies

A few episodes ago on the Fantasy Alarm Fantasy Baseball Podcast, Matt Selz and I talked about the Philadelphia bullpen, and I asked why Alvarado wasn’t getting any save chances after starting the year with a 1.42 ERA and 22.74 K/9 through his first six appearances. Well, Alvarado, one of the game’s best strikeout relievers, has three saves in his last three appearances, and while Philly may still use a fluid approach in the ninth, Alvarado has been the team’s best reliever this season, and needs to be owned in all formats. Sure, he doesn’t have any strikeouts in his last two appearances, but he has multiple strikeouts in seven of nine appearances this season. With regular save chances, he’s an elite closing option, and now sports a 56.3 percent strikeout rate on the season with a 0.96 ERA.

Taj Bradley, Tampa Bay Rays

A 2.61 ERA through two starts with a 1.58 xERA, 0.63 FIP, 14.81 K/9, and 1.74 BB/9 will surely catch the eyes of many. He progressed through the minors quickly, and injuries to Zach Eflin and then Jeffrey Springs opened the door for Bradley to be a more permanent piece of the Tampa Bay rotation moving forward. His 31.3 percent O-Swing% and 12.3 percent swinging strike rate look great for his overall strikeout floor. I would like to see more usage from his changeup or curve against righties to help continue his development, but this kid looks legit, and he’s on one of the teams that is the absolute best in terms of development.

Patrick Wisdom, Chicago Cubs

Over his last eight games, Wisdom is slashing .306/.324/.917 with six home runs, two doubles, nine runs scored, and 12 RBI. We know that Wisdom can be a bit streaky at the dish, and right now, he’s scorching hot. He continues to be a menace against left-handed pitching, but he also has a .959 OPS and .404 ISO against righties this season. Long term, regression will get him, as he’ll come back down to Earth, and there has been no real change in many of his plate discipline metrics but enjoy the numbers while the going is good for Wisdom! Despite the 12th percentile strikeout rate and 15th percentile whiff rate, we cannot deny the hard contact, as he currently sports a 95th percentile and 98th percentile average exit velocity and hard-hit rate respectively.

Honorable Mention: Andrew McCutchen, Brett Baty, Cody Bellinger, Jose Quijada, Mason Miller

Fantasy Baseball Fallers

Masataka Yoshida, Boston Red Sox

Yoshida is making a bunch of contact, posting zone contact and overall contact rates north of 80 percent, and his swinging strike rate is below 8.5 percent. However, quantity of the contact isn’t necessarily the issue for Yoshida, but more so quality. He’s not a burner on the base paths, so when you pair a 15th percentile average exit velocity, 22nd percent barrel rate, 34th percentile hard hit rate, and a 62 percent ground ball rate, the results aren’t going to be great. He’s beating the baseball into the ground, and per FanGraphs, has more soft contact (28%) than hard contact (26%) this season. If your fantasy league values OBP instead of batting average, you may not be as disappointed with Yoshida, but there’s too much potential to drop him from your teams after 67 MLB plate appearances. There’s an adjustment coming from overseas, and things should even out for Yoshida. If the slump continues, I could see Boston moving him down in the order a bit to see if they can get him some pitches to hit and boost that confidence.

Brady Singer, Kansas City Royals

After a breakout 2022 season, expectations were rather high for Singer coming into 2023, despite the fact that he’d likely be pitching for one of the worst offenses in the league. Run support or not, Singer hasn’t done his job thus far, as he’s 1-2 with an 8.14 ERA through his first four starts of the season. Strikeouts are down a bit from last year, walks are up slightly, but the big number is that he’s allowed a 2.14 HR/9 this season, which is way up from his 1.04 HR/9 from 2020-2022. He’s been hit incredibly hard this year, and a 25 percent HR/FB rate hasn’t done him any favors. That number should come down, considering that the four home runs he allowed in one start against Atlanta make up 80 percent of his season’s total. His velocity has been down a bit to start the season, but at the end of the day, his stuff is getting absolutely tattooed at the moment.

Michael Kopech, Chicago White Sox

Outside of a 24 percent strikeout rate, fantasy managers can’t be too pleased with the early returns from Kopech. Amongst qualified starters, he has the 16th-highest SIERA, fifth-highest walk rate, fifth-highest ERA, and the league’s worst FIP. When he isn’t walking guys or striking them out, he’s allowed a ton of hard contact, not to mention a 23.7 percent barrel rate. To begin the season, here are Kopech’s rankings in a few key categories:

He’s trending for a second straight season with a first pitch strike rate below 60 percent, and things don’t seem to be trending the right way for Kopech to begin the season. Strangely enough, despite all the walks, his fastball and slider are catching too much of the middle of the zone, which likely explains why he’s been so hard this season.

Honorable Mention: Jeffrey Springs (IL), Scott Barlow, Alek Manoah, Garrett Mitchel (IL), Jake McCarthy

Statistical Credits:
baseballsavant.mlb.com
fangraphs.com
baseballmusings.com

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