MLB Streaks and Trends, Risers and Fallers Week 15: CJ Abrams Is Racking Up Stolen Bases

From today until the end of the Major League Baseball season, Saturday is for looking at the various streaks and trends across Major League Baseball, as well as those fantasy baseball players with rising or falling stock. Who should be your priority waiver wire pickups? Who deserves some of your precious FAAB? Are there any potential fantasy baseball buy-low trade candidates? As always, we’ll start by talking about some fantasy baseball risers and fallers, highlighted by Seth Lugo and CJ Abrams of the San Diego Padres and Washington Nationals respectively. On the other hand, Jon Gray and Mark Leiter Jr. Jr. are trending in the wrong direction. Jarren Duran is on a heater, while teammates Justin Turner and Masataka Yoshida have the longest hit streaks in baseball. Let’s take a look at some of the notable hit streaks and current trends across Major League Baseball, as well as fantasy baseball risers and fallers.

Fantasy Baseball Risers

Seth Lugo, San Diego Padres

The starter-turned-reliever-turned-starter again has been rather excellent for San Diego this year. Overall, for the 2023 campaign, despite a 3-4 record, he’s sporting a 3.39 ERA (3.36 FIP), 1.24 WHIP, and 22.2 K%. He missed some time in May and June, but in his four starts since returning to the rotation, he’s posted a 2.05 ERA, 8.59 K/9, and a 49.2 percent ground ball rate across 22 innings of work. Lugo’s command has been exceptional, as highlighted by a 93rd percentile walk rate, and the Padres have let him ride his four-seamer and curveball over two-thirds of the time. The veteran righty isn’t going to give you big strikeout numbers, but he doesn’t hurt himself, and does a great job limiting the opposition.

CJ Abrams, Washington Nationals

Overall, Abrams’ numbers are fine, as he’s hitting .244 with seven home runs, 14 stolen bases, and 35 runs scored across 82 games this year. Not too shabby, especially with where he was being drafted! His four percent walk rate has his OBP below .300, which isn’t great, but Abrams had a nice little run leading into the break, and he’s even been leading off lately, which is great for his counting stats. He has five stolen bases over his last five games, and over his last nine games, he’s slashing .355/.412/.484 with a vastly improved 8.8 percent walk rate. He’s making a ton of contact (89.4%) and his O-Swing rate during this run is 25.8 percent. For the season as a whole, it’s up at 40.1 percent! In deeper formats, if you need some speed and a hot bat, take a look at Abrams.

Honorable Mention: Alek Manoah, Jarren Duran, Tommy Pham, Christopher Sanchez, Giancarlo Stanton, Adbert Alzolay

Fantasy Baseball Fallers

Jon Gray, Texas Rangers

From early May to early June, Gray was pitching at a Cy Young caliber level, posting a sub-1.00 ERA with over one strikeout per inning. However, he scuffled into the All-Star break, as his final five starts have seen him rack up an 0-3 record with a 6.75 ERA, 1.42 HR/9, and 16:13 K/BB ratio across 25.1 IP. During this five-start stretch, he’s allowed an 85 percent contact rate, 92.9 Z-Contact%, and just a 7.2 SwStr% while finding the zone under 40 percent of the time. His fastball velocity has been down a tick of late, which is something worth monitoring, and overall, the spin rates on his slider and fastball are considerably down. I’m not saying it’s something, but I’m not saying it's nothing. In shallower leagues, Gray is entering “drop territory.”

Mark Leiter Jr. Jr., Chicago Cubs

Just when you want to believe in Mark Leiter Jr. Jr. and his fantasy value, he implodes. He’s now served up multiple earned runs in three of his last four outings, which has come on the back of 9.1 scoreless innings from June 9 to June 29. Leiter’s last save came on June 2, whereas teammate Adbert Alzolay has five saves, a 2.61 ERA, and a 13.06 K/9 over the last month or so. Alzolay is now the man in Chicago so unless your league values holds, there’s no need to roster Leiter.

Honorable Mention: Henry Davis, Jose Alvarado, Taj Bradley, Carlos Santana, Nick Pratto

Statistical Credits:
baseballsavant.mlb.com
fangraphs.com
baseballmusings.com

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