It’s already Thursday, so that means it's fantasy baseball third base day at Fantasy Alarm. As part of our MLB Player Spotlight series, we break down a different third baseman every week as you manage your fantasy baseball lineups. Maybe you should cut ties on the player and make a trade before it’s too late, or it could be a sneaky add off the fantasy baseball waiver wire. Even still, the third baseman might be a possible sell-high or buy-low candidate for your fantasy baseball lineups. Of course, we have plenty of tools here at Fantasy Alarm so make sure to check out our MLB page and browse through all of our content before making your final roster decision. Today, we take a look at struggling Los Angeles Dodgers third baseman Justin Turner. Is it time to move on from the popular veteran or should we keep him stashed on the bench waiting for a hot streak? Let's take a closer look!

 

 

Justin Turner MLB Player Spotlight

 

 

No one has summarized the Dodgers' up-and-down hitting at the plate this season quite like Justin Turner. Take this past week for example. On Monday, he hit the ball fairly hard but was robbed on a few hits and came up empty. On Tuesday, he had probably his biggest game of the season – going 4-for-5 with three doubles and four RBI. Then on Wednesday, all of the hope that Turner’s fantasy managers gained the night before came crashing down as he went hitless once again to lower his batting average to just .194.

This is Justin Turner we are talking about. A mainstay in the Dodgers' All-Star lineup over the past decade or so. A player that hit .340 in 2014, hit 27 home runs with 90 RBI in 2016, and had 27 home runs with a .290 batting average just three years ago in 2019. Looking at Statcast from 2015 to 2020, Turner was at least top 7% in the league in XBA and XwOBA every year but one (2016). He culminated a huge season just two years ago (2020) with a .298 xBA; .551XSLG; and .403XwOBA

Check out Turner’s 2020 Statcast Percentile Rankings (red is the Top 10% in the league):

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Turner is a notoriously slow starter. Over his career, he has a 108 wRC+, .116 ISO, and .750 OPS in April compared to a 134 wRC+, .203 ISO, and .859 OPS over the second half of his season.

Even Turner has not struggled like this before, though. Going into Thursday's game, he is slashing .194/.252/.291 with a .543 OPS. His career slash is .288/.365/.465 with a .830 OPS, so he is nowhere near his normal totals. Turner has only one home run on the season and has more than twice as many strikeouts (20) than walks (9). He has not hit below .200 on May 12th since 2014, when he was a first-year Dodger. His quality-of-contact metrics and contact rates are way down. His swinging-strike rate is over 10% and he’s never even been near that number. Furthermore, Turner's barrel % is also at a career-low. 

So, is this the end of the line for the 37-year-old veteran? He is swinging way more than normal but making less contact which can be a sign of a hitter whose bat speed is in regression. His .430 xSLG, .245 wOBA, and .315xWOBA are all far below not just his career marks but way below league averages. Need more batted-ball metrics? His average exit velocity (90.9 to 87.1. mph) and hard contact rate (42.5 to 33.3%) are also at career lows.

 

 

After seeing Turner’s 2020 Statcast Percentile Rankings above, now let’s take a look at his profiles from 2021 and this current season.

2021:

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2022:

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All you need to do is pay attention to the color red and you can see the rapid decline since 2020. Turner's batting average in May is worse than it was in April (.188 to .197) – if you can even believe that. Last season’s .832 OPS and 127 wRC+ were signs of decline, but this season is totally different. He also has never had a chase rate over 30% in his career – yet this season he is at 35%. 

If you are a glass-half-full type of person you can say that even though he went only 5-for-21 on the Dodgers' recent road trip he did pick up his three hardest-hit balls of the season and went five straight plate appearances without striking out. The Dodgers have always been a team that will not put up with struggling hitters, even veterans. His wRC+ is sitting at 55, which means that he is 45% worse than a league-average hitter this year. 

Justin Turner is not as bad as these statistics show, but he is also not getting any younger. More days off for rest or even a platoon situation could be in his future. Has father time caught up to JT? He is still a professional hitter and will have some big games in the next couple of months but, as a fantasy manager, it may be time to cut ties and try to move him before all trade value is lost. 

 


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