Welcome to Fantasy Alarm's MLB DFS picks and daily fantasy playbook for Friday, July 10th. Our MLB DFS projections combine advanced pitching metrics, platoon splits, strikeout prop data, and ownership positioning to identify the sharpest plays on every slate. Whether you are targeting DFS projections, running lineups through our DFS optimizer, tracking ownership trends, or checking confirmed lineups, Fantasy Alarm has the tools to sharpen your edge. 

Today's 12-game main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel has multiple different directions to go, with some really good pitchers in Shohei Ohtani, Chris Sale, Nolan McLean, and Sonny Gray taking the mound. This MLB DFS playbook covers every key position on DraftKings and FanDuel with our best MLB DFS picks for today.

Slate: 12-Game Main | Lock Time: 7:05 pm ET, Friday, July 10th, 2026

Vegas Totals: KC/BAL (highest-projected game), CHC/CIN - LAA/MIN (tied for second-highest game total), ATH/CWS (third-highest game total)

Highest K-Projections: Nolan McLean 6.5 O/U (-118), Hunter Greene 6.5 O/U (+100), Shohei Ohtani 6.5 O/U (+120), Chris Sale 5.5 O/U (-175), Sean Burke 5.5 O/U (-145), Hunter Brown 5.5 O/U (-124), Sonny Gray 5.5 O/U (-120)

MLB Weather Today, 7/10

KC @ BAL - A late start might be necessary, but the game should play fine. 

CHC @ CIN - Storms are currently projected to miss the ballpark, but we'll need to keep an eye on things. 

BOS @ NYM - Storms in the area could cause an early in-game if they land over the ballpark. Not great for a game in which we are interested in pitchers. Definitely need to monitor. 

UPDATE: Risk has decreased in New York. The game should play fine. 

ATL @ STL - The game currently projects dry, but needs monitoring closer to first pitch with storms in the area. 

UPDATE: Risk has increased in St. Louis, and it depends on where the storms ultimately land. If they land over the ballpark, there will be a delay or PPD. 

MLB DFS Lineup Picks: Starting Pitchers

MLB DFS Top Pitchers

Shohei Ohtani (LAD)

Analysis: Ohtani has been incredible on the mound this season, with a 1.79 ERA across 14 starts. He's been a bit more hittable recently, with a 4.38 ERA in his last four outings, but most of that can be attributed to poor batted ball luck (.343 BABIP). Tonight, he faces a Diamondbacks offense that ranks dead last with an 81 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. 

UPDATE: Ohtani has been scratched and will not make his scheduled start. It will be a bullpen game for the Dodgers. 

Chris Sale (ATL)

Analysis: Sale remains one of the best pitchers in baseball, with an excellent 2.27 ERA across 16 starts. Both his 28.6% strikeout rate and 6.1% walk rate are borderline elite marks. He draws a tough matchup against a Cardinals team that makes a ton of contact, especially against lefties. Their 16.9% strikeout rate against lefties is the second-best mark in baseball, which does impact Sale's upside. 

Nolan McLean (NYM)

Analysis: McLean has had a couple of recent hiccups, but he has been back on track more recently. There were a couple of rough starts in May and then another in June that are skewing his overall numbers, but he allowed two earned runs or fewer in the six starts surrounding those three poor outings. The strikeouts are at a healthy 28%, and he draws a plus matchup against the Red Sox. 

Sonny Gray (BOS)

Analysis: Gray might be in the best form of any pitcher on the slate. He has allowed more than three earned runs in just one of 16 starts this season. After struggling to miss bats early in the season, Gray has posted a 27.9% strikeout rate across his last 10 starts. He draws a matchup against a Mets offense that has struggled to a 92 wRC+ against righties this year. 

MLB DFS Value Pitchers

Zebby Matthews (MIN)

Analysis: Matthews has had a mediocre season, with a 4.43 ERA in 10 starts. His strikeouts are down a few ticks from last season, and too much hard contact has led to struggles with the long ball. Despite those issues, there is still plenty of upside for Matthews in this spot tonight. He draws a matchup with an Angels offense that owns a 96 wRC+ against righties while striking out at the second-highest rate. If he can keep the ball in the park, Matthews has a good chance to pay off his price tag. 

Sean Burke (CWS)

Analysis: Burke has put together a rock-solid season for the White Sox, with a 3.56 ERA across 98.2 innings. Both his 25.8% strikeout rate and 8.0% walk rate are better than league average, and he's greatly reduced the amount of hard contact allowed this season. He draws a neutral matchup at home against the Athletics tonight. 

Robbie Ray (COL)

Analysis: The best matchup on the board undoubtedly belongs to Ray, as he takes on the Rockies in San Francisco. Against left-handed pitching this season, the Rockies own a putrid 80 wRC+ and an extreme 26.1% strikeout rate. Ray has been an extremely lucky pitcher this season, with an ERA that is better than every estimator by more than a full run. Despite some regression likely to come in the near future, Ray can certainly win his matchup tonight. 

Top Options For Strikeouts

K-prop lines and value ratings are incorporated below for DFS and prop context. These are the arms building the highest strikeout ceilings on the 12-game slate.

Our model identifies these arms as the highest-ceiling plays for Alt-K lines today:

Chris Sale: 28.6% K% (10.6 K/9)

Nolan McLean: 28.0% K% (10.5 K/9) 

Shohei Ohtani: 27.9% K% (10.0 K/9)

Hunter Greene: 31.4% K% (11.0 K/9) (2025) 

Hunter Brown: 27.3% K% (10.7 K/9) (6 starts)

Parker Messick: 25.8% K% (9.3 K/9)

Best Odds For A Win

The following MLB DFS picks offer a combination of favorable win odds, sustainable ERA and xFIP metrics, and soft opponent matchups. Each carries K-prop lines worth noting alongside their DFS value at reduced ownership relative to the top tier.

MLB DFS Lineup Picks: Stacks & Hitters

MLB DFS Top Hitters

Bobby Witt (SS, KC)

Analysis: Witt is all the way up to a 126 wRC+ for the season, and he's on pace to set a career-high in stolen bases. He's swiped 30 bags in 35 attempts, while adding 13 home runs, 50 runs scored, and 39 RBIs. The man is a fantasy point machine, and he gets a decent matchup in Baltimore. 

Sal Stewart (1B/3B, CIN) & Spencer Steer (1B/OF, CIN)

Analysis: The Reds are at home facing a fly-ball pitcher with a home run problem. Imanaga has allowed an 11.1% barrel rate, 50.6% fly-ball rate, and 1.89 HR/9 dating back to last season. Stewart and Steer have both destroyed left-handed pitching in their careers. Stewart is at .265 ISO against lefties this season, while Steer is all the way up at .304 ISO.  

Gunnar Henderson (SS, BAL) & Adley Rutschman (C, BAL) 

Analysis: The Orioles own the highest implied team total on the slate against Avila and a terrible KC bullpen. Henderson is in a major funk in July after a strong June, but this spot is a great opportunity for him to break out of it. Rutschman is back to being an above-average hitter after injuries slowed him last season. His 122 wRC+ against righties is his best mark since his breakout rookie season. 

Kody Clemens (2B, MIN)

Analysis: Speaking of breakout seasons, Clemens is currently enjoying the best campaign of his career. He has destroyed RHP with a 133 wRC+ and .279 ISO, with 14 of his 16 home runs coming when he enjoys the platoon advantage. Rodriguez is just returning from the IL, and he has been hammered by lefties for a .268 ISO this season. 

MLB DFS Value Hitters

Rafael Devers (1B, SF)

Analysis: Devers has been on an absolute tear, with a 195 wRC+ in July. After a horrendous April, he has his season wRC+ all the way up to 115, and he's done the majority of that damage against righties with a 144 wRC+. He draws an elite matchup against Gordon, who has been destroyed by lefty batters for a .382 ISO. 

Ernie Clement (2B/SS, TOR), George Springer (OF, TOR), Kazuma Okamoto (3B, TOR) 

Analysis: A pair of value options in Clement and Springer are expected to hit atop the lineup for the Jays, and they have both been excellent against left-handed pitching in their careers. Their best hitter against lefties this season has actually been Okamoto, who owns a .224 ISO against southpaws. The lefty Sears has managed to strike out just 15.7% of righties while allowing a .217 ISO. 

Samuel Basallo (C, BAL), Dylan Beavers (OF, BAL), & Colton Cowser (OF, BAL)

Analysis: The team with the highest implied run total has multiple value options down in the order. Basallo's .259 ISO trails Alonso by only two points for the team lead against righties, and he's nearly $2k cheaper than Alonso. Beavers (109 wRC+) and Cowser (105 wRC+) have also been above-average hitters against righties.   

Jake Cronenworth (2B, SD) 

Analysis: Cronenworth was abysmal to begin the season, but he has been excellent since returning from the Injured List. He has posted a 132 wRC+ in July and is still priced near the minimum salary. Now, he draws a plus matchup against a struggling righty coming off his own injury issues. 

MLB DFS Top Stacks

Primary Stack: Baltimore Orioles vs Luinder Avila (KC RHP)

Targets: Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Taylor Ward, Pete Alonso, Dylan Beavers, Samuel Basallo 

Primary Stack: Kansas City Royals vs Brandon Young (BAL RHP)

Targets: Bobby Witt, Carter Jensen, Jac Caglianone, Vinnie Pasquantino, Michael Massey

Primary Stack: Cincinnati Reds vs Shota Imanaga (CHC LHP)

Targets: Sal Stewart, Spencer Steer, Elly De La Cruz, Eugenio Suarez, Tyler Stephenson

“Contrarian” Stack: Chicago White Sox vs Jacob Lopez/Aaron Civale (ATH LHP/RHP)

Targets: Miguel Vargas, Colson Montgomery, Munetaka Murakami, Kyle Teel, Sam Antonacci 

“Contrarian” Stack: San Francisco Giants vs Tanner Gordon (COL RHP)

Targets: Rafael Devers, Casey Schmitt, Heliot Ramos, Luis Arraez, Jung Hoo Lee

“Contrarian” Stack: Minnesota Twins vs Grayson Rodriguez (LAA RHP)

Targets: Kody Clemens, Trevor Larnach, Brooks Lee, Josh Bell, Alan Roden 

MLB DFS Lineups: Core MLB DFS Hitters & Pitchers

The "Chalk" (Popular)

The "Pivot" (Low

Owned)

The Winning Logic
Ray (SP, chalk)Burke (SP, lower owned)The “chalk” Ray experience is rarely a good time. His strikeouts are down, and he is walking too many batters. Burke has flashed huge upside plenty of times. 
Royals (Chalk)White Sox (pivot stack)Young has been a serviceable starter. Pivot to the lower-owned White Sox, who are expected to get Murakami back and have an implied total of 5 runs. 
Witt + Pasquantino (chalk)Vargas + Murakami (lower owned)A pair of slugging first basemen are expected to return from the IL, but the one with the better matchup appears to be lower-owned. Pair him with an elite teammate.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The foundation for every MLB DFS lineup you build today. These are the core MLB DFS picks by position across DraftKings and FanDuel.

  1. Sonny Gray (SP1)
  2. Sean Burke (SP2)
  3. Bobby Witt (Core Bat)
  4. Spencer Steer (Core Bat)
  5. Adley Rutschman (Core Bat) 
  6. Rafael Devers (Core Value Bat) 
  7. Ernie Clement (Core Value Bat)

Player Pool

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Stacks

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