Happy Tuesday and welcome to Fantasy Alarm’s MLB DFS Playbook for July 8th, covering the DraftKings and FanDuel main slates! 

Our team of experts has poured over the matchups, stats, and trends to bring you a curated selection of top plays and value picks to help you build winning lineups. 

Whether you’re chasing big GPP prizes or looking to cash in head-to-heads, we’ve got you covered with insights designed to give you an edge. Let’s dive into today’s slate and get ready to crush it!

 

 

This season's MLB DFS picks and playbook will consist of a pitcher and hitter core players section with written analysis, player pool grid and core stacks section.

The core player section should be used as a starting point for all lineups, you may not be able to use all players in the same lineup, but those players should be the building blocks for you on a given night.

The player pool grid will feature both players from the core player section along with additional plays to help you build a complete lineup. The grid will be broken into top priced players, mid-priced players and value tier players.

The stacks section will bring you our favorite lineups stacks for the day and which players we would look to include in those stacks based on matchups and pricing.

There will also be a daily MLB DFS Show with a variety of hosts ranging from myself, Jon Impemba, Howard Bender, and James Grande. The MLB DFS Show will give you an initial outlook on the day's MLB DFS slate and should give you a good base for the start of your research each day! 

Make sure you subscribe to the Fantasy Alarm YouTube channel so you never miss a show! Also, join the Fantasy Alarm Discord to get your DFS lineup questions answered by our MLB DFS team! Plus, as always, be sure to check in with our MLB DFS Tools, with the Daily MLB Projections, MLB DFS Rostership Projections, and our MLB DFS Lineup Generator when building those lineups today to help you decide which players you should be targeting.

 

MLB DFS Picks & MLB Playbook

MLB Weather: Tuesday, 7/8

Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees 

  • A line of storms could cause issues around the middle innings. We will need to monitor this one to check the severity of the storms closer to game time. 

Colorado Rockies @ Boston Red Sox 

  • Rain should be light enough they are able to play through it. Some risk for an in-game delay. 

Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago White Sox 

  • Scattered showers could cause an in-game delay. 

Washington Nationals @ St. Louis Cardinals 

  • A late start might be necessary, but the game should play fine after that. 

 

 

 

Recommended MLB DFS Starting Pitchers

Let's get into today's core pitching plays for our DFS lineups

Core MLB DFS Pitchers

Hunter Brown, Houston Astros 

The Astros ace stands above the rest of the many options on a loaded pitching slate. Hunter Brown is the most expensive pitcher on both sites, and he deserves to be. He owns a sparkling 1.82 ERA and an elite 32.1% strikeout rate. The matchup is a plus from a run prevention standpoint, as the Guardians have posted just a 91 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Their .298 wOBA against righties ranks all the way down at 27th, and they are an average strikeout team. Brown is in a great spot to tally his 14th quality start in 18 attempts this season. 

Robbie Ray, Logan Gilbert & Sonny Gray

These next three pitchers are close enough in price to Hunter Brown that you are probably using them only as a pivot in tournaments. They are all fantastic and any of them being the top scoring pitcher on the slate would not be the least bit surprising. 

Robbie Ray has found consistency this year and put together a fantastic season for the Giants. The strikeouts are down a touch from his peak at 27.1% this season, but the walks and home runs are down as well. He faces a Phillies offense that has been above average, but they also face a huge ballpark downgrade for hitters going out to San Francisco.  

Logan Gilbert was up to 95 pitches in his last outing, but he still didn't make it out of the 5th inning. He has missed bats at an elite 36.8% clip this season, so there is still plenty of upside despite his the lack of length in his outings. Unfortunately for Gilbert, he does not get the benefit of his pitcher-friendly home park today and instead must travel to Yankee Stadium to face an elite offense. The Yankees are top 5 in ISO, wOBA and wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season, but at least they do strike out at the 7th-highest rate against righties. This is a boom-bust spot with plenty of risk for Gilbert. 

Sonny Gray has the best run prevention matchup of this trio against the Nationals, who rank 20th in ISO and 22nd in wOBA against right-handed pitching. Unfortunately, the Nats also only strike out at the 4th-lowest rate against righties. Gray has also been under the 80-pitch mark in three of his last four starts, which is mildly concerning. He did cruise through a one-hit shutout in the other start and was allowed to throw 89 pitches, so maybe he can be extended if things are going well. 

These three pitchers stack up pretty evenly today and are a tick behind Hunter Brown. I would give the highest upside nod to Gilbert, but he also faces the most risk. 

Jose Soriano, Los Angeles Angels 

Soriano was excellent in his last start against the Braves but got knocked around for eight runs the start prior against the Nationals. Overall, he has been way more good than bad this season, with underlying metrics that are even better than the surface level stats. Elite groundball ability allows him to work around some control issues and keep the ball in the park. The strikeouts are a tick below average, but he has routinely worked 100+ pitches which allows to get deep into games and elevate his upside. 

Brayan Bello, Boston Red Sox 

The best matchup of the day belongs to Brayan Bello, assuming the weather cooperates. The Colorado Rockies own just a 70 wRC+ on the road this season. Away from Coors Field, they have also posted the second-lowest wOBA and strike out at an enormous 28.4% rate – which is tops in all of baseball. Like Soriano, strong groundball ability helps Bello work around control problems at times, and the matchup helps offset the below average strikeout numbers. Bello had racked up five straight Quality Starts before falling an inning short in his last outing, and he has allowed three earned runs or less in each of his last eight starts. He ranks behind only Hunter Brown for me on this slate when price and matchup are factored in.  

Eury Perez, Miami Marlins 

Eury Perez looked like the pre-surgery version of himself in his last start against the Twins. He racked up seven strikeouts and allowed just one hit across six dominant innings. He faces a Reds offense that has been average against right-handed pitching, but they have also struck out at the 5th-highest rate in the league. The cheap price tag more than makes up for the move away from Miami into a tough hitter's park today.  

 

 

Recommended MLB DFS Hitters

Let's check out today's core plays to build our lineups around.

Core MLB DFS Hitters

Boston Red Sox vs Kyle Freeland 

The Red Sox offense has been red hot lately. They have scored less than five runs in just one of their past nine games, and today they continue their homestand against the awful Rockies pitching staff. Kyle Freeland gets the start for the Rockies, and while he has not been terrible on the road, he still does not miss any bats (16.3% strikeout rate this season) and neither does the bullpen behind him. The Rockies ‘pen owns a paltry 19.6% strikeout rate this season, which is 2nd-lowest in baseball, and their 4.64 ERA is the 5th-worst in baseball. The Red Sox have the highest implied team total on the slate. 

The Sox are likely to deploy some platoon options against the lefty, with Romy Gonzalez (.295 ISO vs LHP) and Rob Refsnyder (.273 ISO vs LHP) leading the charge. Trevor Story and Carlos Narvaez have both been excellent against lefties, as has Ceddanne Rafaela. Nate Eaton drew the leadoff role in yesterday’s start against a lefty. 

Toronto Blue Jays vs Aaron Civale

The Blue Jays have also been red hot, as they have won nine consecutive games. They get a matchup against Aaron Civale today, who has allowed a .213 ISO and managed just a 17.3% strikeout rate this season. Addison Barger and George Springer have been the Jays best hitters against righties this season. Vladimir Guerrero and Bo Bichette have both been above average against righties this season, and the fly ball profile of Civale is an ideal matchup for two guys who hit the ball on the ground too often. Nathan Lukes and Alejandro Kirk are fine options to round out a full stack with their above average wOBA against righties. 

Chicago Cubs vs Simeon Woods Richardson

Cubs lefties in particular are in a great spot against Simeon Woods Richardson, and there are some elite lefties available. Woods Richardson has struck out just 16.3% of lefties, and he has allowed a .176 ISO and .373 wOBA against them. Kyle Tucker, Seiya Suzuki, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Michael Busch and Carson Kelly all own an ISO above .230 against righties this season, with Tucker, PCA and Busch hitting from the strong side of the platoon against SWR. Ian Happ is another lefty option who has been much better recently, and he now has his season ISO up to .182 against righties. 

St. Louis Cardinals vs Jake Irvin 

Jake Irvin has seen his strikeout rate fall to just 16.8% this season, and he has been burned by the home run ball at a career-high rate of 1.71 HR/9. Lefties in particular have done serious damage with a .222 ISO against Irvin, but righties have had success as well. Alec Burleson, Lars Nootbar and Nolan Gorman are the trio of lefties I would look to first with each owning an ISO above .175 against righties this season. Brendan Donovan owns an excellent .388 wOBA against righties and should hit leadoff. Righties Masyn Winn, Willson Contreras and Nolan Arenado would be fine additions to a Cardinals stack. 

Athletics vs Didier Fuentes

Didier Fuentes is a talented young arm, but he was rushed to the majors this season after numerous injuries in the Braves rotation. Fuentes is far from a finished product and looks like he is going to have trouble with lefties in the early part of his career. So far in a very limited sample, he has struck out just 7.4% of lefties and allowed a .320 ISO to them. He is giving up tons of hard contact in the air that we often see lead to home troubles. The A's lefties in this hitter-friendly park are in a perfect spot to exploit the weaknesses of Fuentes. Lawrence Butler, Nick Kurtz and Tyler Soderstrom all hit left-handed and own an ISO above .165 against righties. Brent Rooker and Shea Langeliers are righties with an ISO of at least .220 that also look pretty good, and Jacob Wilson has an elite .360 wOBA against righties that is useful in a full A's stack. 

 

Player Pool

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Stacks

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