Welcome to the Fantasy Alarm MLB DFS Playbook for Thursday, July 3rd! 

Our team of experts has poured over the matchups, stats, and trends to bring you a curated selection of top plays and value picks to help you build winning lineups. 

Whether you’re chasing big GPP prizes or looking to cash in head-to-heads, we’ve got you covered with insights designed to give you an edge. Let’s dive into today’s slate and get ready to crush it!

 

 

This season's MLB DFS picks and playbook will consist of a pitcher and hitter core players section with written analysis, player pool grid and core stacks section.

The core player section should be used as a starting point for all lineups, you may not be able to use all players in the same lineup, but those players should be the building blocks for you on a given night.

The player pool grid will feature both players from the core player section along with additional plays to help you build a complete lineup. The grid will be broken into top priced players, mid-priced players and value tier players.

The stacks section will bring you are favorite lineups stacks for the day and which players we would look to include in those stacks based on matchups and pricing.

Tune into the MLB DFS Livestream at 5 PM ET to watch us break down today’s slate, give you last-minute advice, and answer any questions before locking in those lineups!

Make sure you subscribe to the Fantasy Alarm YouTube channel so you never miss a show! Also, join the Fantasy Alarm Discord to get your DFS lineup questions answered by our MLB DFS team! Plus, as always, be sure to check in with our MLB DFS Tools, with the Daily MLB Projections, MLB DFS Rostership Projections, and our MLB DFS Lineup Generator when building those lineups today to help you decide which players you should be targeting.

 

MLB DFS Picks & MLB Playbook

MLB Weather: Tuesday, 7/3

Milwaukee Brewers @ New York Mets

  • Chance for a late start or early, in-game delay. Should be fine after that. 

 

 

 

Recommended MLB DFS Starting Pitchers

Let's get into today's core pitching plays for our DFS lineups

Core MLB DFS Pitchers

Robbie Ray, San Francisco Giants

To put it mildly, this is a pretty bad pitching slate. Ray is the most expensive option and gets middling matchup against the Diamondbacks. Sure, the D-backs have been just an average offense against left-handed pitching rather than the elite offense they have been against righties, but they have also struck out at the second-lowest rate in the league. Ray also has to deal with a ballpark downgrade for pitchers with this start coming in Chase Field. The Giants lefty does boast the highest strikeout rate on the slate at 27.5%, but this is not a great matchup for upside.

Seth Lugo, Kansas City Royals 

Lugo has been in fantastic form recently, including last time out against the Dodgers. Over his last three starts, Lugo has piled up 24 strikeouts in 18 innings and allowed just two runs total. His strikeout rate in those three starts was a whopping 33.8%. Seattle is a formidable opponent, but upside is hard to find on this slate. The $8,300 DK price tag is especially appealing, but if he maintains his recent form he can pay off the $9,500 FD tag as well. 

Dustin May, Los Angeles Dodgers

May hasn't been in great form and his strikeout rate is just 20.8% this season, but he gets a date with the White Sox today. Against right-handed pitching this season, the Sox rank dead last in wOBA and 2nd-worst in ISO. May has significant win equity as a -275 favorite, and he has a good chance at a quality start against a weak opponent. 

Brandon Pfaadt, Arizona Diamondbacks

 It has not been a good season for Brandon Pfaadt. He has seen his strikeout rate dip below 20% and surrendered 1.69 HR/9 on his way to a gaudy 5.38 ERA. This is simply a price play on a slate that lacks upside amongst the more expensive pitchers. Pfaadt does get a solid matchup against a Giants squad that has been slightly below average offensively this season. He has also racked up seven strikeouts in each of his last two starts, so maybe there is some hope the above average strikeouts are back. 

Cade Horton, Chicago Cubs

With a lack of upside pitching on the slate, value shopping is not a terrible plan of attack. Horton is coming off the worst start of his young big league career, surrendering seven runs against the Astros last time out. That disaster start and a lack of strikeouts so far have contributed to a massive salary decrease for the Cubs righty. Horton had topped 16 DK points in three of four starts prior to his last two starts. A fantasy score in that range against a below-average Cleveland offense would likely hold up quite well on this slate at just $6,200. 

 

 

 

Recommended MLB DFS Hitters

Let's check out today's core plays to build our lineups around.

Core MLB DFS Hitters

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Aaron Civale

The Dodgers have the highest implied team total on the slate by over a full run against Aaron Civale and the White Sox. Civale is a flyball pitcher that has allowed over 1.6 HR/9 dating back to last season, and he has struck out just 17.3% of hitters this season. The right-hander has held pretty extreme reverse splits this season, but Shohei Ohtani is still the obvious top target. Andy Pages has actually been the Dodgers best RH hitter against righties with a .246 ISO. Will Smith and Teoscar Hernandez are both up near .200 ISO as well. Mookie Betts has faced a serious power outage this season, but he is certainly still viable in a stack. 

Chicago Cubs vs. Joey Cantillo 

Cubs lefties were in one of the best spots of the day until we got news of the pitching change from Luis L. Ortiz to Joey Cantillo. The lefty Cantillo has worked out of the Guardians 'pen in his big league time this season, but he has been starting in Triple-A. In MLB, he has a huge 34% strikeout rate against lefties, but they have also touched him up for a .200 ISO. I still like Kyle Tucker as much as before the pitcher swap, but this is definitely a downgrade for Pete Crow-Armstrong, Ian Happ and Michael Busch. Seiya Suzuki and Dansby Swanson jump over that trio now, and Nico Hoerner is a fine addition to a Cubs stack. 

Rafael Devers vs. Brandon Pfaadt

Even when Brandon Pfaadt was going well he was susceptible to lefty power, so this is a great matchup for the Giants newest slugger. Pfaadt has struck out just 18% of lefties and has allowed a .211 ISO to them this season. Devers owns a .234 ISO against righties this season, and no I am not concerned he has struggled since joining the Giants. 

Atlanta Braves vs. Jose Soriano

Jose Soriano is a decent starting pitcher with legitimate ground-ball skills, but the Angels bullpen behind him is on of the worst in all of baseball. Soriano has control problems that often cause his pitch count to get out of hand before the 5th inning, so we could see an extended look at that bad bullpen. Ronald Acuna and Matt Olson are the top two bats in the lineup and are fine to play on their own, but I am mostly interested in a full stack given Soriano's control problems an the bad bullpen. 

Los Angeles Angels vs. Bryce Elder 

If they Angels were capable of attacking Bryce Elder with more lefty power they would be one of the top stacks of the day. They fall down the list a bit since they have no lefty power, but Elder has also struggled with righties this season. Mike Trout, Taylor Ward, Jo Adell and Logan O'Hoppe all own an ISO above .200 against righties this season. Zach Neto is at .185 ISO versus righties with a strong .344 wOBA. Nolan Schanuel is the lone lefty target and his .354 wOBA looks good in a stack. 

Ben Rice and Jazz Chisholm vs. Chris Bassitt 

Chris Bassitt is still a good pitcher, but he has always had pretty significant traditional splits. The righty has allowed a healthy .168 ISO to lefties this season. Ben Rice (.238 ISO) and Jazz Chisholm (.317 ISO) are the two Yankees lefties to target with their enormous power. Cody Bellinger and Jasson Dominguez are fine to add if you are looking to full stack Yankees. And of course, that Aaron Judge fella is pretty darn good at hitting baseballs. 

 

 

 

Player Pool

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Stacks

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