MLB DFS Picks, Projections, Lineups & Stacks Today: May 7th, 2026 Early Slate

It's a loaded Thursday afternoon on the diamond with six games on the DraftKings main slate and four games on FanDuel's early-only offering. The pitching landscape has some legitimate top-tier options and the hitting side has a few sneaky-good matchups that should keep the tournament field from being entirely concentrated in one or two spots. Here is everything you need to build a winning roster today.

⚡ THE SLATE DASHBOARD

Slate: 6-Game DK Main | 4-Game FD Early Only | Lock: 1:05 PM ET

Top Game Totals: NYM/COL (11.2), KC/CLE (10.2), ARI/PIT (9.5)

SP Ownership Tier: Shota Imanaga (~40%), MacKenzie Gore (~34%), Jake Irvin (~25%)

Highest K-Projections: Shota Imanaga, MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin, Christian Scott

Weather: No issues across the slate today

💎 PITCHING COACH

Top Tier

Shota Imanaga, Chicago Cubs -- $9,000 DK | $10,700 FD

Yes, Imanaga is going to be outrageously popular today and I understand why. He is carrying a 2.40 ERA with a 0.85 WHIP and is striking out 27.0% of batters faced this season. The stuff is as good as it has been since he arrived in the states and a matchup against the Reds is exactly the kind of spot you circle on the calendar. The concern is purely the ownership and the fact that at nearly 40 percent on DraftKings, you need him to have a truly monster outing to separate yourself from the field. He is still a must-play in cash games on both platforms and is worth the exposure in GPP as well given the sheer quality of the matchup. On FanDuel where his ownership should be a tick lower given the four-game slate, I actually like him more because the leverage story is less punishing.

Mitch Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates -- $7,900 DK

This is my favorite pitcher on the slate that nobody seems to be talking about. Keller has quietly been one of the better starters in the National League this season with a 2.85 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and a FIP of 2.89. The ARI/PIT game has the second-highest total on the DK main slate at 9.5 but the real story is what Keller does against right-handed hitters. He is holding righties to a .113 average this season with a 25.4% K-rate and his FIP against righties is a historically elite number. The Diamondbacks lineup has a significant right-handed lean and Keller is going to get multiple looks at the heart of that lineup in a favorable park situation. At around 15 percent ownership I think he is the single best leverage play at pitcher on today's DK slate.

Seth Lugo, Kansas City Royals -- $9,200 DK | $9,900 FD

I know what you're thinking and no, I have not lost my mind. Lugo is sitting on a 2.68 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP and a FIP of 2.64, which means the surface results are actually underselling how good he has been. He is in the KC/CLE game which has the second-highest total on the slate at north of ten, but that is a function of the Royals offense getting run up, not Lugo getting shelled. His K rate is over 21 percent and the expected numbers all back up the results. The ownership is sitting in the single digits on DraftKings and barely above that on FanDuel and I genuinely cannot explain why. This is a case where the field is sleep-walking past one of the best pitching values on the board and I am not going to do the same.

Value Plays

Christian Scott, New York Mets -- $6,200 DK

Scott is a DK main slate only option since the Mets are not on FanDuel's early card today. The appeal here is almost entirely about the matchup and the implied run environment. The NYM/COL game has the highest total on the slate by a wide margin and the Mets are implied for nearly six runs in this one, which tells you everything you need to know about how the market views Quintana. Scott gives you a path to tournament equity at a price point that saves salary for the bats you actually want. The risk is real given his limited track record and the overall run environment but in a slate where the pitching field is concentrated at the top, getting down to Scott unlocks roster constructions that nobody else is building.

Jake Irvin, Washington Nationals -- $7,000 DK | $8,400 FD

Irvin is carrying the highest strikeout rate among today's value options at 25.3% and he is doing it against both left and right-handed hitters with almost identical splits on that side of the ledger. The ERA has been ugly at 4.93 but the FIP is 4.03 and the strikeout profile is legitimate. Irvin draws the Twins today in a nine-plus total game and while the run environment carries some risk, his ability to miss bats gives him a path to a quality outing. He is chalk on the FD early slate where he is sitting around 17 percent owned and above 25 percent on DraftKings, so this is more of a cash game arm than a GPP differentiator.

💎 HITTING COACH

Elite Bats

Aaron Judge, New York Yankees -- $6,500 DK | $4,500 FD

Judge is carrying a .448 wOBA and a .386 ISO this season, which are the kinds of numbers that make you forget there is anyone else worth discussing. The matchup today sets up beautifully for the Yankees slugger and the power upside is as high as it gets on this slate. He is underowned relative to his ceiling given the attractiveness of the NYM and Cubs stacks on DK, which means Judge actually has some leverage to him today despite being the class of the hitter pool. On FanDuel's four-game early slate, he is going to get closer to the ownership he deserves given the smaller field of options. He is a core piece in every lineup format I am building today.

Oneil Cruz, Pittsburgh Pirates -- $6,200 DK

Cruz is one of the more fascinating hitters on the main slate today. The power is undeniable and the .223 ISO this season reflects a guy who can change the complexion of any game with one swing. He is only available on DraftKings since the Pirates are not on the FD early card and at around eight percent ownership he provides genuine leverage in tournaments where the NYM and Cubs stacks are going to be overrepresented. The strikeout rate is something you accept with Cruz but in the ARI/PIT game with a 9.5 total, the floor is high enough that I am comfortable spending up here.

CJ Abrams, Washington Nationals -- $5,400 DK | $4,000 FD

This is the hitter I am most excited about today. Abrams is posting a .414 wOBA on the season and against right-handed pitching it jumps to an elite .457 with a .360 ISO and a wRC+ north of 190. He draws a matchup against one of the worst starters on the board and the Nationals are in a game with a 9.5 total. Abrams has been one of the better hitters in baseball this season and nobody is treating him that way from an ownership standpoint, which is exactly the kind of inefficiency you build GPP lineups around. He is one of my favorite plays on both platforms today and he anchors the WSH stack I am targeting.

Bobby Witt, Kansas City Royals -- $6,000 DK | $3,500 FD

Witt is the most rostered hitter on the FD early-only slate and the KC/CLE game with a ten-plus total is a big part of that. He is hitting .279 on the season with a solid overall wOBA and bats in the two-hole for a Royals team that is implied for 5.24 runs today. The matchup against Slade Cecconi is where the analysis gets a little more nuanced. Cecconi is a right-handed pitcher and Witt's numbers against righties this season are closer to league average than the elite splits he puts up against lefties, so the appeal here is more about the game environment and lineup spot than a true splits advantage. He is still a core piece in cash games on FanDuel given the slate size and his overall profile, but in GPP I am leaning toward other KC hitters who may offer better matchup value at lower ownership.

Value Bats (Salary Savers)

Mark Vientos, New York Mets -- $3,900 DK

Vientos hits in the heart of the Mets order against a Colorado pitcher who has allowed home runs at an alarming rate this season. The xFIP on this Colorado lefty is 6.03 and the FIP is 5.03, meaning the expected numbers are actually worse than the results. Vientos has a .359 wOBA against left-handed pitching and a .200 ISO in those splits, giving him legitimate power upside in a game where the NYM implied runs are nearly six. He is going to be popular at around 20 percent ownership on DraftKings but in a game with an 11.2 total and a pitcher getting shredded all season, I will accept the chalk.

Jose Tena, Washington Nationals -- $2,400 DK | $2,300 FD

This is your tournament flier today at essentially minimum salary. Tena is hitting eighth in the Washington lineup against Simeon Woods Richardson who has the worst numbers on the board. His .358 wOBA against right-handed pitching and his 126 wRC+ in those splits are legitimately surprising for a name flying under the radar. If the Nationals get going in this one and the game script goes the way the matchup suggests it could, Tena is going to be in the middle of it. At five percent ownership on DraftKings this is exactly the kind of dart throw that wins you money in large-field GPPs.

Michael Busch, Chicago Cubs -- $4,100 DK | $2,900 FD

I genuinely do not understand why Busch is sitting under two percent ownership on DraftKings today. He is in the Cubs lineup against a Cincinnati pitcher who has real struggles against left-handed hitters, with a FIP of 4.19 and an xFIP of 5.75 in those splits. Busch is a left-handed hitter posting a .322 wOBA on the season and the Rhett Lowder matchup only gets better when you look at the left-right splits. The salary is in a perfect spot for tournament construction and the ownership is the kind of number where a good game from Busch moves the needle significantly on your contest results. I am plugging him into multiple lineups today.

🏗️ THE STACKING BLUEPRINT

Primary Stack: New York Mets vs Jose Quintana 

(Targets: Juan Soto, Francisco Alvarez, Mark Vientos, Marcus Semien, Bo Bichette)

The NYM/COL game at 11.2 is the highest total on the DK main slate by nearly a full run and the Mets are implied for close to six runs against a Colorado pitcher with a 4.07 ERA and an xFIP over six. Quintana has allowed home runs at a clip of nearly two per nine innings this season and his FIP against right-handed hitters alone is over five. The Mets lineup has multiple weapons to throw at him and this is the stack I am centering the majority of my DK tournament lineups around today. Soto is carrying a .367 average and a .457 wOBA against right-handed pitching and sits in the two-hole, while Vientos and Alvarez give you legitimate power options in the middle of the order. Stack them up.

Primary Stack: Chicago Cubs vs Rhett Lowder 

(Targets: Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, Nico Hoerner, Michael Busch, Dansby Swanson)

This one works on both the DK main slate and the FD early card. Lowder has a 5.09 ERA and an xFIP over four and a half, and the numbers against left-handed hitters in particular are worth paying attention to. His FIP against lefties is over four and the xFIP jumps to nearly six in those splits, meaning the Cubs lefties should be circled all over your roster today. Happ is posting a .431 wOBA against right-handed pitching with a .279 ISO and Suzuki is not far behind at .403 wOBA. The CHC/CIN game total is under nine which keeps the implied stack score from being elite, but the pitcher's splits make this worth targeting with a four or five-man unit.

Primary Stack: New York Yankees vs MacKenzie Gore 

(Targets: Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, Jazz Chisholm, Jasson Dominguez, Paul Goldschmidt)

Gore is allowing home runs at north of one per nine innings against right-handed hitters this season and the Yankees lineup is loaded with right-handed bats. Judge leads the charge here and his production against left-handed pitching this season is as good as anyone in baseball. Bellinger is also well suited in this spot, posting a .400 wOBA against lefties. Jazz Chisholm and Jasson Dominguez round out the middle of the order and give this stack legitimate multi-homer upside. The NYY/TEX game is just under nine in total which is not the most exciting number but Gore's underlying numbers suggest his ERA is due to rise. This stack is available on both platforms and gives you a path into the Yankees lineup at lower ownership than the Mets and Cubs stacks.

Contrarian Stack: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Zac Gallen 

(Targets: Oneil Cruz, Bryan Reynolds, Marcell Ozuna, Brandon Lowe)

Gallen is nearly 30 percent owned on DraftKings today, which means pivoting to the Pirates hitters against him is a legitimate GPP move. His ERA is sitting at 4.45 with a WHIP of 1.52 and the underlying numbers are not dramatically better, with a BABIP suggesting he may actually be getting some good fortune. The ARI/PIT total is the highest non-NYM game on the board at 9.5. Cruz and Reynolds anchor this contrarian stack and if Gallen struggles early in a high-total environment, you are in a great spot to separate from the field. Ozuna gives you another power bat in the four-hole.

Contrarian Stack: Washington Nationals vs Simeon Woods Richardson 

(Targets: CJ Abrams, James Wood, Jose Tena, Daylen Lile, Curtis Mead)

I already talked up Abrams and Tena in the hitting section but the full Nationals stack deserves its own callout here. Simeon Woods Richardson has a 6.49 ERA and an xFIP approaching six, and against right-handed hitters in particular the numbers are catastrophic. His FIP against righties is over seven and he is allowing home runs at a rate of two and a half per nine innings in those splits. The Nationals lineup is predominantly right-handed and the matchup is one of the best on the slate from a pure opponent weakness standpoint. James Wood is posting a .388 wOBA against right-handed pitching and Wood plus Abrams at the top of this order is a real weapon. Lile and Mead fill out the bottom of the stack at low cost.

Contrarian Stack: Texas Rangers vs Paul Blackburn 

(Targets: Brandon Nimmo, Corey Seager, Josh Jung, Jake Burger, Joc Pederson)

Blackburn is sitting at under three percent ownership on DraftKings and there is a reason the market is not touching him today as a pitching option. The Rangers lineup has legitimate pop and in a game where both teams are combining for nearly nine runs, the Texas bats are worth a look at very low ownership. Nimmo leads off and is hitting nearly .290 against righties with a .376 wOBA. Seager sits behind him and is posting a .358 wOBA against right-handed pitching with a .286 ISO. Jung and Burger fill in the middle of the order and give this stack power upside that nobody on the field is going to have exposure to.

📈 THE LEVERAGE REPORT (GAME THEORY)

🎯 HEART OF THE ORDER

The core pieces for every lineup you build today. Ownership drives the cash versus GPP label.

1. Shota Imanaga (SP1)
2. Mitch Keller (SP2)
3. Aaron Judge (Core Bat)
4. CJ Abrams (Core Bat)
5. Juan Soto (Core Bat)
6. Jose Tena (Core Value Bat)
7. Michael Busch (Core Value Bat)

Player Pool

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Stacks

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