MLB DFS Picks, Projections, Lineups & Stacks Today: Sunday Playbook

Sunday's slate has a real headliner: Joshua Baez made his MLB debut Saturday and became the first player in history to homer in each of his first three plate appearances, and he's right back in the Cardinals lineup at Wrigley today. Dylan Cease has been nearly unhittable all year, and the Phillies have outscored the Twins 16-2 through the first two games of this series with Andrew Painter on the mound for a third try. Here's the full Fantasy Alarm DFS lineup picks for Sunday, built off real matchup data and the weather. Swing by the Fantasy Alarm DFS tools hub once you've built out your pool and want help optimizing.

MLB Weather Today, August 16, 2026

Two spots carry real weather risk today. Pittsburgh's dealing with heavy rain and a 63% precipitation chance for the Red Sox game, and Cleveland's forecast for the Padres game isn't much better at 60%. Everywhere else ranges from dry to a mild chance of a passing shower. Rogers Centre's roof will keep the Yankees-Blue Jays game climate-controlled regardless, and Atlanta should be hot and clear for the Diamondbacks' trip into Truist Park.

MLB DFS Lineup Picks: Starting Pitchers

Top Pitchers

Dylan Cease (TOR) vs. NYY 

Cease has been one of the best pitchers in the sport all year, a 2.40 ERA and an absurd 191 strikeouts through 22 starts, with a 36.1% strikeout rate and a 2.41 FIP that both sit near the top of the league. He's been especially nasty against right-handed bats (1.71 FIP, .194 AVG, 35.8% strikeout rate) and still very good against lefties (2.97 FIP), so there's no platoon side of the Yankees lineup that gives him trouble. He's also been red-hot lately, six straight quality starts with a 0.84 ERA and 56 strikeouts over that stretch, and New York's own numbers against right-handers are just average (101.0 wRC+) with a chase-prone 24.4% strikeout rate that plays right into his hands.

Eury Perez (MIA) vs. CIN 

Perez has turned into a frontline arm for Miami, a 3.39 ERA and 128 strikeouts over 21 starts, with a 27.2% strikeout rate and a 3.67 FIP that both point to real swing-and-miss ability. He's been sharper against lefties this year (2.74 FIP) than righties (4.95 FIP), which is worth knowing since Cincinnati leans right-handed. He's also been dealing since the All-Star break, a 1.14 ERA and 46 strikeouts against just 9 walks over his last six starts, and the Reds' own lineup has been one of the weaker offenses in baseball against right-handers this year (85.6 wRC+), a soft enough matchup to keep riding the hot streak.

Sean Burke (CWS) vs. DET 

Burke has quietly turned into a true frontline arm for a White Sox team that's needed one, a 2.99 ERA and 152 strikeouts across 24 starts, with a tidy 1.08 WHIP and a 3.32 FIP that both grade out as elite. He's been remarkably even against both sides of the plate (3.08 FIP vs. righties, 3.47 vs. lefties), and dating back to mid-June he's been an outright ace, a 1.60 ERA and 11.5 K/9 over his last 10 starts. Detroit actually grades out a bit above average against right-handers this year (106.1 wRC+), so this isn't a total pushover matchup, but Burke's recent form is good enough to matter regardless of who's in the box.

Value Pitchers

Christian Scott (NYM) vs. WSH 

Scott's peripherals are outstanding, an 11.26 K/9 and a 28.8% strikeout rate that both rank among the best in baseball, backed up by a sharp 3.27 FIP. He's been strong against both righties (3.12 FIP) and lefties (3.36 FIP), though a hip injury has limited him to 17 starts and he's completed six innings only twice all season, so there's a real workload ceiling here. Washington's own lineup grades out above average against right-handers this year (107.5 wRC+, .189 ISO), a tougher matchup than Scott's price tag might suggest, but his swing-and-miss upside still makes him one of the better values on the board.

Patrick Sandoval (BOS) vs. PIT 

Sandoval's still building back up from Tommy John surgery, just 30 innings across 6 starts since his July return, but the early returns are encouraging, a 3.30 ERA with an 8.7 K/9. For his career he's been especially tough on left-handed hitters (.195/.274/.324 against), and Pittsburgh's lineup has graded out below average against lefties as a team this year (89.5 wRC+, 25.7% strikeout rate). The bigger concern here is the weather, Pittsburgh's forecast carries a real chance of rain that could shorten or delay this one, so treat him as a GPP piece with some rainout risk attached rather than a cash-game lock.

Top Options For Strikeouts

• Dylan Cease — 191 strikeouts in 22 starts with a 36.1% rate, and he's been even nastier lately with 56 strikeouts over his last six starts.
• Sean Burke — 152 strikeouts on the year, with an 11.5 K/9 over his last 10 starts dating back to mid-June.
• Eury Perez — 128 strikeouts and a 27.2% rate, sharpened further by a 46-strikeout stretch over his last six outings.
• Christian Scott — an 11.26 K/9 that's one of the best marks in the league relative to his salary.

Best Odds For A Win

• Dylan Cease (TOR) — his own dominant season and a red-hot recent stretch make this as safe a bet as the slate offers.
• Eury Perez (MIA) — a Reds lineup that's struggled against right-handers all year gives Perez a real edge behind his own hot streak.
• Sean Burke (CWS) — his last 10 starts have been true ace-level form, more than enough to carry a competitive matchup.
• Christian Scott (NYM) — elite strikeout stuff gives Scott a real floor even in a tougher-than-expected lineup matchup.

MLB DFS Lineup Picks: Stacks & Hitters

Top Hitters

Kyle Schwarber (PHI) vs. MIN 

Schwarber's up to 37 home runs with a .905 OPS and a 143.8 wRC+ through 118 games, numbers that put him firmly in the middle of the MVP conversation. He's actually hit right-handers even better than his overall line suggests in terms of raw power (.300 ISO vs. RHP). The Phillies have already outscored this Twins team 16-2 across the first two games of the series, and Schwarber's been a huge part of that.

Corbin Carroll (ARI) vs. ATL 

Carroll's power-speed combination remains one of the best in the league, 18 homers and 16 steals with an .837 OPS and a 126.1 wRC+ through 120 games. His numbers against right-handers specifically are a bit more modest (.757 OPS, 103.4 wRC+) than his overall line, so this isn't an overwhelming platoon edge against Bryce Elder, but Elder's own peripherals (4.03 ERA, 4.59 FIP) leave enough margin for Carroll's talent to take over.

Byron Buxton (MIN) vs. PHI 

Buxton's having a monster year when healthy, 25 homers and a .859 OPS with a 135.1 wRC+ across 84 games, and his numbers against right-handers are even better (.909 OPS, 147.8 wRC+). Andrew Painter has a 6.27 ERA that gets uglier away from home (5.05 ERA on the road with a 1.57 WHIP), which lines up perfectly with a Target Field start against a lineup that's been solid against right-handed pitching all season.

Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) vs. STL 

PCA continues to have one of the best all-around seasons in baseball, 27 homers and 30 steals with a .905 OPS and a 148.2 wRC+ through 124 games. He's been even better against right-handers specifically (.902 OPS, 144.4 wRC+). Power, speed, and a friendly platoon look all in one bat.

Value Hitters

Joshua Baez (STL) vs. CHC 

Baez made his MLB debut Saturday and immediately set a record nobody had ever touched, three home runs in his first three career plate appearances. That's obviously an unsustainable pace, and he arrives with real swing-and-miss risk after striking out 136 times across 103 Triple-A games this year (against 34 home runs and a .901 OPS there). But he's back in the lineup today at Wrigley, the price hasn't caught up to the moment, and after a debut like that, betting against him for one more day feels like the wrong side of the story.

Jared Young (NYM) vs. WSH 

Young has carved out a real everyday role for the Mets after coming back from a torn meniscus, hitting 8 homers with a .786 OPS and a 119.9 wRC+ across 73 games. His numbers against right-handers are actually a tier above his overall line (.825 OPS, 129.5 wRC+), which sets up well against Jake Irvin, and his price is still catching up to how much playing time he's earned.

Bryson Stott (PHI) vs. MIN 

Stott's individual numbers are modest, 9 homers and a .763 OPS with a 110.0 wRC+ across 118 games, and he's been roughly average against right-handers specifically (100.7 wRC+). This isn't a star-level pick, but he's a correlated, cheap way into a Phillies lineup that's been steamrolling this exact opponent all series, and the price reflects a much lower bar than his teammates at the top of the order.

Esteury Ruiz (MIA) vs. CIN 

Ruiz has carved out a platoon role for the Marlins built almost entirely around mashing left-handed pitching, and the scouting report shows up in the numbers, a .932 OPS and a 151.5 wRC+ against lefties compared to a much quieter overall line. That's exactly where Ruiz does his damage today, and he brings real stolen-base equity (28 on the year) on top of it.

Top Stacks

Marlins vs. Nick Lodolo (CIN)

Why: Lodolo's numbers are rough across the board, a 4.86 ERA and a 5.44 FIP over 13 starts, with an 18.5% strikeout rate that's well below where you want a starting pitcher. Miami's team-wide split against lefties is nothing special (93.8 wRC+), but Lodolo's own command issues (9.1% walk rate) and the presence of a true LHP-masher at the bottom of this lineup in Esteury Ruiz give the Marlins real upside in a good weather, dry-park spot.

Targets: Otto Lopez, Heriberto Hernandez, Xavier Edwards, Esteury Ruiz, Javier Sanoja

Phillies vs. Dean Kremer (MIN)

Why: Kremer's overall season line is shaky, a 5.25 ERA and a 5.25 FIP across two organizations, though it's worth being upfront that he's been sharp in his two starts since Minnesota acquired him at the deadline (1.50 ERA in that small sample). The bigger story here is Philadelphia itself, which has outscored this Twins club 16-2 across the first two games of the series behind one of the deepest lineups in baseball. Backing that same offense for a third straight game is about as straightforward as stacking gets.

Targets: Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Luis Arraez, Bryson Stott

Diamondbacks vs. Bryce Elder (ATL)

Why: Elder's numbers are middling rather than bad, a 4.03 ERA and a 4.59 FIP through 23 starts, with a modest 19.4% strikeout rate and 21 home runs allowed already this year. Arizona's own split against right-handers is below average as a team (89.4 wRC+), so this isn't a platoon smash, but Corbin Carroll's talent and Elder's homer-prone tendencies give this lineup a real path to production against a pitcher who isn't missing many bats.

Targets: Corbin Carroll, Geraldo Perdomo, Gabriel Moreno, Ketel Marte, Nolan Arenado

Contrarian Stacks

Mets vs. Jake Irvin (WSH)

Why: Irvin has had a difficult season, a 5.79 ERA and a 4.86 FIP over 14 starts, with a walk rate (9.8%) that's on the high side for his strikeout stuff. New York's own numbers against right-handers are close to league average (94.9 wRC+), which is part of why this stack should fly under the radar relative to the more obvious plays elsewhere on the slate, but a shaky Nationals starter and a deep Mets lineup make this a sneaky source of value at lower expected ownership.

Targets: Francisco Lindor, Carson Benge, A.J. Ewing, Jared Young, Bo Bichette

Twins vs. Andrew Painter (PHI)

Why: Painter's been one of the more hittable starters in baseball this year, a 6.27 ERA that balloons to 5.05 on the road with a 1.57 WHIP away from Philadelphia. Minnesota's own numbers against right-handers grade out well above average (105.9 wRC+), a real platoon edge that most of the field will overlook given how badly the Twins have lost the first two games of this series. If Painter's road struggles continue, Minnesota's lineup, led by Byron Buxton, is a legitimate way to fade the Phillies chalk at a fraction of the ownership.

Targets: Byron Buxton, Trevor Larnach, Royce Lewis, Josh Bell, Kody Clemens

MLB DFS Lineups: Core MLB DFS Hitters & Pitchers

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