MLB DFS Picks, Projections, Lineups & Stacks Today: Sunday Playbook

Sunday is the biggest main slate of the week, and today’s 11-game card gives us as much volatility and opportunity as we’ve seen all season. The Fantasy Alarm crew breaks down every matchup on the board, identifying the top pitching targets, elite hitter stacks, and high-upside contrarian plays to target in both cash games and GPP tournaments. Check Fantasy Alarm’s MLB DFS pitcher projections and hitter projections for the data-driven edge to build winning lineups across DraftKings and FanDuel. Before locking your roster, verify the MLB weather tool for any late-breaking environmental changes, run your builds through the Fantasy Alarm MLB lineup optimizer, and check MLB DFS ownership percentages before finalizing any GPP entry to find the contrarian stacks where the leverage lives.

Slate Weather Alert

This is an 11-game Sunday slate with a 1:35 PM ET first pitch, and weather is going to be a genuine factor in lineup construction today. Two games carry real rain risk that could affect both player pool size and stack selection.

• Wrigley Field (TOR @ CHC): This is the one to watch closely. The forecast calls for a gentle rain that builds into a heavy downpour as the afternoon progresses. If the teams are out taking pregame warmups on time, expect a wet, cold, wind-blowing-in atmosphere that suppresses offense. If they are not, expect a postponement. Track pregame news closely before rostering anyone in this game. - GAME PPD
• Kauffman Stadium (STL @ KC): High-resolution models keep the rain south of Kansas City even though the National Weather Service carries a higher probability. The expectation leans toward a dry game, but there is meaningful uncertainty given the conflicting guidance. Winds are blowing out at 10-15 mph, which would meaningfully boost the offensive environment if the game is played as scheduled.
• Yankee Stadium (CIN @ NYY): Clear and warm at 81° with winds blowing out around 9-10 mph, nice hitting weather on a warm afternoon and one of the cleaner offensive environments on the slate.
• Truist Park (MIL @ ATL): A few spotty downpours are possible around Atlanta, but coverage is low and the expected chance of a delay is low as well. Temperatures climb into the mid-to-upper 80s as the game progresses.

• Coors Field (PIT @ COL): Partly cloudy and warm at 89° with 12 mph winds. No forecaster flag on this game, and as always, Coors Field plays as a strong offensive environment regardless of the day-to-day forecast.

MLB DFS Pitching Picks

Chase Burns (R, CIN @ NYY)

Burns has been every bit the ace Cincinnati hoped for when it made him the second overall pick, and the early-2026 breakout has been loud. Across his last extended look, he carries a 10.60 K/9 and a 29.8% strikeout rate with a 3.17 FIP and 3.29 xFIP over 80.2 innings, the kind of swing-and-miss profile that supports a season-long ERA in the low 2.00s. His fastball has sat in the high-90s and touched triple digits at points this year, and the slider has produced some of the gaudiest whiff rates in the league. The matchup is the one wrinkle: New York carries a 112.3 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, comfortably the toughest team context of any start Burns has had recently, and Yankee Stadium today features winds blowing out around 9-10 mph in 81-degree heat, conditions that flag as a real boost for hitters. Against right-handed batters specifically Burns is excellent, a 2.26 FIP and 8.58 K/9 with batters hitting just .186, but his walk rate against left-handed batters (4.40 BB/9) is the leak New York’s lefty-heavy top of the order can attack. At $10,900 DK and $10,900 FD, Burns is the most expensive pitcher on the board today, and the price reflects a true difference-maker even in a tougher-than-usual park and lineup matchup.

Davis Martin (R, CWS @ DET)

Martin has quietly turned in one of the better under-the-radar seasons of any starter in the American League, posting a 9.15 K/9 with a sparkling 2.91 FIP across 81.2 innings, though the 3.31 xFIP suggests some of that run prevention has outpaced the deeper process numbers. Against right-handed batters specifically his K/9 jumps to 11.03 with a 2.56 FIP, and Detroit carries just a 96.9 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, a below-average mark that plays directly into Martin’s strength. Comerica Park today is a clean, low-variance environment: 68°, overcast, just 5 mph winds, with almost no rain risk on the forecast. At $8,700 DK and $9,800 FD, Martin is priced as a borderline value relative to the strikeout upside and the favorable Detroit matchup, and he profiles as one of the safer plays on the entire board for cash-game builds that want pitching production without paying Burns-level salary.

Logan Webb (R, SF @ MIA)

Webb remains one of the most reliable workhorses in the National League, sitting at a 2.98 FIP and 3.39 xFIP with a 7.77 K/9 across 75.1 innings, the kind of deep, efficient start that anchors cash-game builds. Against right-handed batters his FIP tightens further to 2.93 with a .198 average allowed, and Miami carries just a 96.2 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, the third-weakest mark of any team Webb has faced in a similar split window this year. At $9,400 DK and $9,600 FD, Webb is a clean source of innings, strikeouts, and a favorable opposing lineup, making him one of the safest plays on the slate.

MLB DFS Value Pitchers

Dustin May (R, STL @ KC)

May has been excellent in 2026, carrying an 8.27 K/9 with a 3.02 FIP and 3.72 xFIP across 81.2 innings, and his split against right-handed batters is the headline number: a 2.11 FIP and 8.64 K/9 with hitters batting just .192 against him. Kansas City carries just a 96.3 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, a clearly below-average mark, and the matchup gives May one of the cleanest individual angles of any starter on the board today. The complication is weather: Kauffman Stadium carries a real rain risk this afternoon, and while the lean is toward a dry game, there is real uncertainty given the conflicting model guidance. If the game is on as scheduled, the 10-15 mph winds blowing out would be a neutral-to-positive factor for May’s own outing given the strikeout-driven profile. At $8,200 DK and $9,500 FD, May is a strong value if the Kauffman Stadium forecast holds; monitor the pregame weather update closely before locking him in.

Kai-Wei Teng (R, CLE @ HOU)

Teng has carved out a unique multi-inning role for Houston this season, making 21 appearances including 8 starts, and his track record as a piggyback/bulk arm gives him a real workload history rather than a true unknown. Against right-handed batters specifically he carries a 9.10 K/9 and 3.24 FIP across 28.2 innings, with hitters batting just .190 against him. His numbers against left-handed batters are far rougher, a 6.73 FIP with a 5.96 BB/9 across a smaller 25.2-inning sample, so this remains a matchup-dependent play tied closely to today’s start. Cleveland carries a 92.5 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, the weakest team mark of any opponent a value pitcher faces on today’s slate, which lines up directly with Teng’s best split. At $6,900 DK and $7,600 FD, Teng is a contrarian value angle built specifically around a favorable team-level matchup against his strongest platoon split; treat the walk-rate risk against any left-handed Cleveland bats as the downside case.

Top Options for Strikeouts

• Chase Burns: 10.60 K/9 season-long, 12.20 K/9 vs LHH, elite fastball-slider combination
• Davis Martin: 11.03 K/9 vs RHH with a 2.56 FIP in that split, 9.15 K/9 overall
• Dustin May: 8.64 K/9 vs RHH with a 2.11 FIP in that split, .192 AVG allowed
• Logan Webb: 7.77 K/9 season-long, 2.93 FIP vs RHH, deep efficient workload
• Kai-Wei Teng: 9.10 K/9 vs RHH in a 28.2-inning sample, 3.24 FIP in that split

Best Odds for a Win

• Logan Webb / Giants (SF @ MIA): SF road favorite, Webb facing a Miami lineup with a below-average right-handed-pitching split
• Davis Martin / White Sox (CWS @ DET): Both teams near pick’em on the board, but Martin’s strikeout upside against a soft Detroit split gives him an edge
• Dustin May / Cardinals (STL @ KC): STL the moneyline favorite, May’s RHH split lining up well if the Kauffman Stadium rain holds off
• Nathan Eovaldi / Rangers (SD @ TEX): TEX heavily favored at home, one of the largest favorites on the board
• Jared Jones / Pirates (PIT @ COL): PIT favored on the road, though Coors Field neutralizes any pitcher-favorable read in this game

MLB DFS Lineup Picks: Top Hitters

CJ Abrams (SS, WSH @ TB)

Abrams continues to be one of the most well-rounded offensive shortstops in the sport, carrying a 150.2 wRC+ against right-handed pitching with a .281 average, a .376 OBP and a .255 ISO across 229 plate appearances, and his power-speed combination gives him a weekly ceiling few players at the position can match. He faces Nick Martinez today, a contact-oriented right-hander who limits walks but does not miss many bats, a profile that plays into the hands of an aggressive, well-rounded hitter like Abrams. At $5,800 DK and $3,800 FD, Abrams is a premium DK price but a relative discount on FanDuel, and he remains one of the cleanest top-tier individual bats on the entire slate regardless of which side he is rostered on.

Brandon Lowe (2B, PIT @ COL) — FD Only

Lowe is a foundational piece of the Coors Field stack today, carrying a 152.1 wRC+ against right-handed pitching with a .312 ISO across 222 plate appearances, elite power production at the keystone position. He faces Michael Lorenzen, whose own numbers against left-handed batters have been a real problem this year: a 6.82 FIP with a .403 average allowed in a 29.1-inning sample, one of the most exploitable individual pitcher splits on the entire board. Coors Field’s thin air and the 89-degree afternoon heat only add to the case. Lowe is FD-only today since Pittsburgh hitters were not populated on the DK Main slate file; at $4,100 FD, he is one of the highest-incremental-value bats in the entire player pool for FanDuel-specific builds.

Byron Buxton (OF, MIN @ ARI) — FD Only

Buxton remains one of the most explosive power-speed threats in baseball when healthy, carrying a 161.3 wRC+ against right-handed pitching with a .367 ISO across 216 plate appearances, the single highest ISO figure of any hitter referenced in this playbook. He faces Jose Cabrera at Chase Field today, a hitter-friendly venue regardless of the outside conditions. Buxton’s 121.2 wRC+ against left-handed pitching shows the production travels across both platoon sides, giving him a high floor regardless of how Arizona’s bullpen usage shakes out. Buxton is FD-only today, as Minnesota hitters were not on the DK Main slate file; at $4,100 FD, he is a premium source of power and counting-stat upside for FanDuel rosters.

Drake Baldwin (C, MIL @ ATL)

Baldwin has emerged as one of the better offensive catchers in baseball this season, and his platoon profile makes today’s matchup particularly interesting: against right-handed pitching he carries a strong 129.9 wRC+, but against left-handed pitching, exactly what he faces today against Robert Gasser, his wRC+ climbs even further to 165.9 with a .306 average, a .385 OBP and a .271 ISO. That is an excellent platoon-driven number at a position that rarely offers this level of offensive upside. Truist Park’s weather carries a modest rain risk, but the coverage is described as low. At $5,200 DK and $3,800 FD, Baldwin is a legitimate top hitter at a thin offensive position, and the platoon split against Gasser is the analytical anchor for the play.

MLB DFS Value Hitters

Cooper Pratt (SS, MIL @ ATL)

Pratt is a smaller-sample rookie play without enough qualifying plate appearances to register full-season platoon splits in the data, which is exactly why he is priced as a true value piece at $2,400 DK and $2,200 FD. He gives access to the bottom of a Milwaukee lineup that carries real swing-and-miss-averse, table-setting traits, and Bryce Elder’s own numbers against left-handed batters are a soft spot: a 3.85 FIP and 4.53 xFIP with a 3.38 BB/9 across 58.2 innings. Truist Park’s warm afternoon conditions (mid-to-upper 80s with a low-coverage rain risk) lean slightly toward offense. Treat Pratt as a pure salary-relief piece for builds that need to allocate dollars elsewhere in the Milwaukee stack rather than a standout individual angle.

Jake McCarthy (OF, PIT @ COL) — FD Only

McCarthy gives cheap access to the Colorado side of the Coors Field game, carrying a 107.2 wRC+ against right-handed pitching with a .279 average across 174 plate appearances, a respectable if unspectacular mark on its own, but Coors Field’s altitude and the 89-degree heat today amplify even modest contact into extra-base production. He faces Jared Jones, and while Jones’ season-long numbers are solid, no pitcher fully escapes the Coors effect. McCarthy is FD-only today with Colorado hitters absent from the DK Main file; at $3,100 FD, he is one of the cheapest viable plays for anyone building exposure to the highest-implied-total game environment on the slate.

Blaze Jordan (3B, STL @ KC)

Jordan remains a smaller-sample, high-variance play without enough plate appearances to register full platoon splits in this data set, the same profile that made him a high-ceiling, high-risk piece in last week’s slate as well. At $2,800 DK and $2,600 FD, the price matches the risk: this is a pure power-upside flier rather than a stable floor play. He gives access to the high-implied-total STL @ KC matchup at minimum salary, assuming the Kauffman Stadium rain holds off as the current forecast lean suggests. Treat Jordan as a tournament-only ceiling piece, not a cash-game building block.

Jac Caglianone (1B/OF, KC vs STL)

Caglianone gives access to the other side of the highest implied-total matchup on the slate, carrying a 126.7 wRC+ against right-handed pitching with a .190 ISO and a .358 OBP across 190 plate appearances, a solid all-around line for a young, still-developing bat. He faces Dustin May today, and while May’s overall numbers are excellent, Kansas City’s team-level 96.3 wRC+ against right-handed pitching is still close enough to league average that individual outliers like Caglianone carry real weekly upside. Kauffman Stadium’s rain risk is the swing factor for this entire game; if it is on as scheduled, the 10-15 mph winds blowing out provide a real boost. At $4,200 DK and $2,800 FD, Caglianone is a strong value piece on either site for anyone leaning into the KC side of this matchup.

MLB DFS Top Stacks

Coors Field Stack — Full Game (FD Only)

Why: Coors Field needs no introduction, and today’s 89-degree, low-humidity afternoon with 12 mph winds is squarely in the sweet spot for the thin-air effect to play out as advertised. Neither Pittsburgh nor Colorado hitters were populated on the DK Main slate file, which makes this a FanDuel-exclusive stack opportunity today. On the Pittsburgh side, Brandon Lowe (152.1 wRC+ vs RHP) and Spencer Horwitz (147.7 wRC+ vs RHP) anchor a lineup full of individual outliers well above what the raw matchup data alone would suggest. On the Colorado side, Hunter Goodman and TJ Rumfield give exposure to the home lineup, with Michael Lorenzen’s well-documented struggles against left-handed batters (6.82 FIP, .403 AVG allowed) creating an especially exploitable angle for any left-handed Pittsburgh bat. This is a true full-game leverage play: rostering both sides of the highest-altitude park in the sport is a legitimate GPP strategy when neither team’s pitcher inspires confidence.

Players to Stack: Brandon Lowe, Spencer Horwitz, Ryan O’Hearn, Hunter Goodman, TJ Rumfield.

Primary Stack: Cardinals vs. Stephen Kolek

Why: St. Louis carries a 103.3 wRC+ against right-handed pitching as a team, but the more important number is Kolek’s own profile against right-handed batters specifically: a concerning 4.92 FIP and 4.85 xFIP with hitters batting .235 against him across 22 innings, a real platoon vulnerability for a Royals team that otherwise carries the highest implied team total on the slate alongside Kansas City. Alec Burleson leads the way with a 174.3 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, one of the best individual marks of any hitter referenced in this entire playbook. Jordan Walker adds a 139.3 wRC+ with real power upside, and JJ Wetherholt contributes a 119.7 wRC+ at the top of the order. The one variable that cannot be ignored is the Kauffman Stadium rain forecast; the lean is toward a dry game but real uncertainty remains given conflicting model guidance, so monitor pregame updates closely before fully committing to this stack.

Players to Stack: Alec Burleson, Jordan Walker, JJ Wetherholt, Blaze Jordan.

Primary Stack: Brewers vs. Bryce Elder

Why: Elder’s season-long FIP sits at 3.76 with a 4.04 xFIP across 88.2 innings, a respectable but unspectacular profile, and his split against left-handed batters is the more exploitable angle: a 3.85 FIP and 4.53 xFIP with a 3.38 BB/9 across 58.2 innings, a real command concern against a Milwaukee lineup that bats left-handed in several key spots. Brice Turang anchors this stack with an excellent 167.1 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, while Jackson Chourio adds a 147.0 wRC+ and Jake Bauers contributes a 151.1 wRC+, giving this lineup three above-150 wRC+ marks against the specific handedness Milwaukee faces most often today. Truist Park carries a modest rain risk, but the coverage area is described as low, and temperatures climb into the upper 80s as the game progresses, a mild offensive boost if the game proceeds as scheduled.

Players to Stack: Brice Turang, Jackson Chourio, Jake Bauers, William Contreras.

Contrarian Stack: Reds vs. Elmer Rodriguez

Why: Rodriguez has made three MLB starts for New York this season, and the early returns show real rookie growing pains: a 4.15 ERA, 1.85 WHIP, and a concerning 6:9 K:BB across his first 13 innings, with none of his three starts yet reaching the five-inning mark. That is a legitimate, statistically grounded vulnerability rather than pure variance. Cincinnati’s lineup gets to attack a young arm still building command in a hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium environment with winds blowing out around 9-10 mph today. JJ Bleday leads the way with a 163.3 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, an excellent number at a still-affordable $5,200 DK price. Nathaniel Lowe adds a 151.4 wRC+, and Sal Stewart and Spencer Steer round out a lineup that gives access to a road team facing a command-limited rookie in a favorable park. This is a tournament-leverage angle built on a real, documented weakness, so it carries more confidence than a typical rookie-debut contrarian play.

Players to Stack: JJ Bleday, Nathaniel Lowe, Sal Stewart, Spencer Steer.

Contrarian Stack: Washington Nationals vs. Nick Martinez

Why: Martinez is a contact-managing right-hander with elite control (just a 1.52 BB/9 season-long) but limited swing-and-miss stuff, a 5.42 K/9 that ranks toward the bottom of any pitcher referenced in this playbook. Washington carries a 99.1 wRC+ against right-handed pitching as a team, a roughly average mark, but James Wood’s individual profile blows past that baseline at a 170.2 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, the best individual number of any hitter in this entire document. CJ Abrams adds his 150.2 wRC+ alongside Wood at the top of the order, and Curtis Mead contributes a 120.4 wRC+ in a complementary middle-order role. Martinez’s contact-heavy profile means balls in play, and against a Washington lineup with this much individual thump at the top, that is exactly the matchup a contrarian build wants to attack.

Players to Stack: James Wood, CJ Abrams, Curtis Mead, Dylan Crews.

MLB DFS Lineups: Core Hitters & Pitchers