Shane Baz ParlayPlay MLB Picks Today, 9/21: Baseball Projections + More

Monday's top two ParlayPlay plays both come from the same AL East series, with one starter projecting over on a limited pitch count in his return and the other projecting under after a scary elbow scare. Our MLB DFS Projections have both arms flagged as strong plays tonight. For a deeper look at how tonight's arms project pitch by pitch, check out our MLB DFS Pitcher Projections, and line-shop today's strikeout numbers with our MLB Odds Finder before you build your board.

Shane Baz MLB ParlayPlay Pick: Lower than 3.5 Strikeouts

Baz was drilled in the elbow by a comebacker in his last start against the Mets, and even though he's been cleared to make his next turn, the recent scare adds real uncertainty about his sharpness tonight. He's allowed eight runs on 13 hits with just seven strikeouts against three walks over his last two outings. Toronto carries just an 18.1 percent strikeout rate against right-handed pitching for the season that has stayed nearly identical over the last two weeks, one of the least strikeout-prone lineups in baseball. That combination of injury uncertainty and a contact-oriented opponent makes the under the smarter side of this number. That is the number. That is the play.

Trey Yesavage MLB ParlayPlay Pick: Higher than 3.5 Strikeouts

Yesavage returns tonight from left knee surgery, with Toronto planning to limit him to roughly three innings and 45-to-50 pitches in his first outing back. His 23.6 percent strikeout rate on the season is a step above average even after a rough rehab appearance. Baltimore carries a 25.3 percent strikeout rate against right-handed pitching that has climbed to an elite 28.7 percent over the last two weeks, one of the best matchup numbers on the board. Do not overthink it.

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