Shane Bieber ParlayPlay MLB Picks Today, 7/23: Baseball Projections + More

What is up, Fantasy Alarm family? Our MLB DFS Projections point to two standout strikeout prop plays tonight on ParlayPlay, built off season stats, current form, and matchup splits against lefties and righties for the Thursday, July 23 slate. For a deeper look at how tonight's arms project pitch by pitch, check out our MLB DFS Pitcher Projections, and line-shop today's strikeout numbers with our MLB Odds Finder before you build your board. Let us get into the picks.

Shane Bieber MLB ParlayPlay Pick: Lower than 4.5 Strikeouts

Bieber has just 19 strikeouts in 23.2 innings this season as he continues building back up, and he has completed 17 outs in a start only once in five tries, a clear workload marker to watch. His Statcast quality-of-contact numbers, a .426 expected wOBA and 53.2% hard-hit rate, are actually worse than his 5.70 ERA suggests.

Today he gets Tampa Bay, a lineup that strikes out at just 19.3% against right-handers, one of the lowest marks in the league. That is the number. That is the play.

Troy Melton MLB ParlayPlay Pick: Higher than 5.5 Strikeouts

Melton is 5-1 with a 1.80 ERA and 50 strikeouts in 55.2 innings, and he's been dominant at home, posting a sub-1.00 ERA across his last four starts at Comerica Park.

Today he stays home against a Kansas City lineup missing Bobby Witt, who landed on the injured list this week with a back issue, and his combination of a 24% miss rate and elite command gives him a real path to clear this total. Do not overthink it.

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